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Colombian Program On Technological And Industrial Foresight: Achievemens And Perspectives. Javier Medina Vásquez Full Professor, Universidad del Valle Head of the National Program on Technological and Industrial Foresight Colciencias – Colombia

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Colombian program on technological and industrial foresight achievemens and perspectives l.jpg

Colombian Program On Technological And Industrial Foresight: Achievemens And Perspectives

Javier Medina Vásquez

Full Professor, Universidad del Valle

Head of the National Program on

Technological and Industrial Foresight

Colciencias – Colombia

“Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impact on Policy and Decision-Making”.

IPTS, Seville (Spain) , 28-29 September, 2006



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Accummulation Foresight:

The country has a respected Foresighttradition and trajectory in Latin America

Colombia is considered as a reference point for the Andean Zone and its social dynamic in Foresight is comparable to the leading countries in America and Europe.

Results

+ 30 Plans for Territorial Development

(Departaments + Municipialities)

+ 20 Strategic Plans for Universities

25 Regional Agendas of SC+T

10 Technological Exercises

18 Technological Exercises in action

Colombia: Foresight Trajectory


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Phases of the Colombian Process Foresight:

STRATEGIC SECTORS

FOCUS ON CAPABILITIES (2003-2004)

INCUBATION (2000-2002)

TRADITION AND TRAJECTORY (1970-1999)

2005-2006


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2003-2004 Foresight:

Development

of national

capacities in

technological

and industrial

foresight

2005-2006

Orientation of national

capacities in technological and industrial foresight

for the development of strategicareas in science, technology and innovation.

These areas should be applied to the knowledgeeconomy

2. Transition Focus 2005-2006


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Basic Components of the Program Foresight:

Future Vision

Strategic

sectors

Data base of

Methods, case studies

Calls

Agenda of

Activities

Platform

Training

Sensibilitation

WEB Site

Data

Base


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Strategies Foresight:

Development of Nation’s Vision, in transition toward society and economy of knowledge

Technological watch and foresight exercises

Formation of Trainers & Social Appropriation of Foresight Knowledge

Sensitivity Meetings

International Seminars

Six exercises for new STI areas in Colciencias

Four exercises for Excellence Centers of Colciencias

Two demonstrative exercises for Water & Energy

Four exercises for Agricultural Productive Chains

Analysis of Surroundings,

Delphi Exercise of strategic sectors,

Analysis of sector and territorial transformation,

Scenarios & Strategies

Strategies of the National Program on Industrial and Technological Foresight

Resources- Colciencias /SENA, Ley 344


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3. Benefits of the focus shift: Foresight: Global Cooperation

World Futures Studies Federation

Instituto PREST

Millenium Project

United Nations University

(LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris

  • PREST: Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: Michel Godet (2005). WFSF: Fabienne Goux-Baudiment (2004). Millenium Project (UN): Jerome Glenn (2005-2006). Georgia Tech: Alan Porter (2006), George Washington University: William Halal (2003), Iale Tecnología: Pere Escorsa (2004-2005), Triz XXI: Fernando Palop, José Miguel Vicente (2005)

George Washington University

Georgia Tech

Triz XXI

Iale Tecnología


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Analysis of patents and science-metric and semantic analysis Foresight:

Prospective

Trade CAN

Remote

Access and Safety

Internet

Consolidation of Infrastructure: Unit for Technological Watch and Competitive Intelligence


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Broadening of portfolio of foresight methods and processes Foresight:

  • The development of skills has been generated from a process of accumulation of experiences, intellectual production, processes, and methodologies.

  • The Program has progressively diversified its portfolio of services:

    • Executes pilot exercises

    • Strategic and demonstrative exercises

    • Sensitivity meetings on foresight and technological watch designed for companies and conducted with local “strategic partners”

    • Conferences by invitation only, and

    • Seminars for the Formation of Trainers motivated by the Program Agenda.

  • During the process new practices have been introduced


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Development of twelve (12) different types of intervention in foresight

  • Formulation of Strategic Re-orientation of a Program with governmental, institutional, and entrepreneurial participation: National Bio-technology Program

  • Exploration of a sector and re-direction of a centre for technological development: CIDET – Electrical Sector

  • Construction of a cluster: Export Health - Valle del Cauca

  • Strategic Orientation of a sub-sector: Lacteous

  • Sector-territorial Orientation: Tourism in Cartagena, Fique (palm fiber) in Santander

  • Exploration of expert opinion: Colciencias Thematic Areas

  • Development of skills and Agendas I+D+I: Excellence Centers

  • Strategic Re-orientation of a Public Institution: Fomipyme

  • Scenarios of international co-operation: (Andres Bello Accord) CAB – Scope 2015

  • Scenario strategies of transition to a Society and Economy based on Knowledge

  • Demonstrative Exercises: Water (EPM-EAAB)

  • National Plan on Science, Technology, and Innovation 2019


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1st = Collective Learning in foresight

State of art

International Networks, Contacts

Expertise and Pluralism

Levels of incertitude, different traditions

Support for the

existent infrastructure

Convergent Facts

Seminaries, calls, anchor institutions, materials and adapted methodologies

Data base of methods, case studies and tools

Critical Mass, Diffussion

4. Lessons


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Construction of a long term vision of the country in foresight, and the place of science, technology and innovation in the knowledge economy

Growing support toward strengthening works of the regions

Training of Trainers

Sustainability of priorities in thematic areas and/or productive sectors of strategic interest for Colombia

Fortifying flows, regional clusters : Sector territorial exercises

Construction of regional systems of innovation

Universities and Centres as exchange agents multiplying the scope of the program

Current Priorities


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5. Conclusions in foresight

  • Tecnological and Industrial Forecast is an excellent institutional opportunity for reflecting on:

    • The future of strategic sectors of the country

    • The possibilities to transform the productivestructure of the country and,

    • The role of science and technology in such transformation processes


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Conclusions in foresight

  • Unstable environments, incertitudes and high level conflicts require greater use of foresight

  • Such environments need the development and gathering of capacities as well as the elaboration of progressive learning exercises

  • Technical profficiency sponsors colaboration. Learning is gained through international cooperation. We have established a wide synergy with international organizations

Foresight is not about predicting!... It is about identifying alternatives.

Colombia seeks future alternatives and better decisions!!


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Bibliography in foresight

  • Gómez Villasante, David & Bernal, Henry (2004) Plan of Joint Action in Science and Technology of the countries in the Andrés Bello Accord, Technical Commissions, Andrés Bello Accord, Bogotá.

  • Medina Vásquez, Javier (2000) “Function of long-term thought: action and institutional re-dimensioning of the ILPES”, Notes from the ILPES, N. 46.

  • Medina Vásquez, Javier (2001) “Function of long-term thought: significant experiences at the global level”, High-level Seminar on basic functions of planning and successful experiences, Latin American and Caribbean Institute of Economic and Social Planning, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Regional Planning Council, Santiago de Chile.

  • Medina Vásquez, Javier (2005a) for a foresight for unstable, uncertain, and highly conflictive environments: The experience of the Colombian Program on Technological and Industrial Foresight. Conference Proceedings the Fistera Conference, IST at the Service of a Changing Europe by 2020: Learning from World Views, European Union - IPTS, 16 -17 June, Seville.

  • Medina Vásquez, Javier (2005b) Technology with a future vision, in “CAF meeting for competitiveness”, Corporación Andina de Fomento, Caracas.

  • Medina Vásquez, Javier & Ortegón, Edgar (1997) Foresight: Social construction of the future, Latin American Institute of Economic and Social Planning (ILPES) - Universidad del Valle, Cali.

  • Medina Vásquez, Javier & Ortegón, Edgar (2006) Manual on Foresight and strategic decision: Theoretical Bases and instruments for Latin America and the Caribbean, Latin American Institute of Economic and Social Planning (ILPES), Santiago de Chile.


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Bibliography in foresight

  • Miles, Ian (2005) Foresight: a long breath path, in “CAF meeting for competitiveness”, Corporación Medina Vásquez, Javier & Rincón, Gladys (2006) Technological and industrial foresight: context, fundamentals, and applications, Colciencias–CAF, Bogotá.

  • Medina Vásquez, Javier & Sánchez, Marcela (2006) Foresight and technological watch: integrated focuses, Colciencias, Bogotá (in process of being published).

  • Miles, Ian & Popper, Rafael (2004) Recommendations to the Colombian NFP, PREST–Policy Research in Engineering, Science and Technology Institute of Innovation Research, Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester.

  • National Planning Department (2003) Construction of a future for Colombia stemming from its territories, Memories of National Seminar, DNP – UNDP – ACCI – CAF, Bogotá.

  • Popper, Rafael & Medina, Javier (2006) Foresight in Latin America. Case Studies: Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela, in “International Handbook on Foresight and Science Policy: Theory and Practice”; PREST Institute - Edward Elgar (book coming soon).

  • Sánchez, J. Marcela & Palop, Fernando (2002). Software tools for the practice of Competitive Intelligence in the business place. Ed. Triz XXI. Madrid.



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