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New England Roundtable

New England Roundtable. Fuel Diversity Issues in New England ISO-NE Phase II Report April 12, 2002 Richard Levitan Levitan & Associates, Inc. Historical Energy Production by Fuel Type. ISO-NE. Age of New England Conventional Steam Units (Winter). ISO-NE CELT Report 2002.

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New England Roundtable

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  1. New England Roundtable Fuel Diversity Issues in New England ISO-NE Phase II Report April 12, 2002 Richard Levitan Levitan & Associates, Inc.

  2. Historical Energy Production by Fuel Type ISO-NE

  3. Age of New England Conventional Steam Units (Winter) ISO-NE CELT Report 2002

  4. Average / Peak Loads in New England 30,000 25,000 20,000 MW Peak Load 15,000 Average Load 10,000 5,000 - Feb-01 Apr-01 Jun-01 Aug-01 Oct-01 Dec-01 Feb-02

  5. Average / Peak Loads in New England 30,000 25,000 20,000 Peak Load MW 15,000 Average Load 10,000 5,000 - Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02 02

  6. Net Interchange in ISO-NE ISO-NE

  7. 5 x 16 Spark-Spreads in New England Power Markets Week, Bloomberg

  8. Recent Natural Gas and Residual Fuel Oil Prices 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 Gas (Henry Hub) $/MMBtu 5.00 RFO 0.3% (NYH) 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 01 01 01 01 Natural Gas Week

  9. Forecast of Energy Productionby Fuel Type

  10. ISO-NE Phase II Gas Study • Study time frame: • Winter 2001-02; Winter 2002-03; Winter 2004-05 • Incorporate new pipeline projects in supply mix • Revise Reference and High Case natural gas demands • Quantify amount of “at-risk” gas-fired generation • Conduct steady-state and transient electric and gas system contingencies

  11. Merchant Plant Capacity Additions

  12. Merchant Plant Entry in New England

  13. Phase II Steady-State Modeling Results • Winter 2002 Peak Day At-Risk  1,352 MW • Winter 2002-03 Peak Day At-Risk  3,101 MW • Winter 2004-05 Peak Day At-Risk  2,814 MW • No delivery constraints in any summer thru ‘05 • Mitigation through distillate oil, in particular

  14. 4 hours 5 hours 2 hours Contingency: Postulated Line Break on Algonquin Transient Analysis • Fore River IDC Bellingham  ANP Bellingham NEA Bellingham BURRILLVILLE Cleary Lake Road  Dighton Manchester  Canal  Tiverton

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