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Join Dr. Barry Rawn from Delft University of Technology in a session presenting renewable energy sources, discussing the substantial effects of wind power on climate and energy security. Gain insights on long-term price stability and how wind power can reshape power systems. Discover the global and European efforts towards stabilizing climate through wind energy. Explore the impact of climate change on wind projects and the potential of wind power on a regional scale. Delve into the possibilities and challenges of wind energy projects and their role in curbing climate change. Learn about the technical, economic, and physical potentials of wind power, addressing investment risks and the need for innovative solutions. Understand the generation mix dynamics, variability, and uncertainties in integrating wind energy into the power grid. Witness examples from Denmark, Ireland, and Spain showcasing the evolution of wind power technology and its integration into existing energy systems.
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The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University of Technology
1 This talk is about: Prospects: substantial helpful effect on climate major component of energy security .. they are different. long term price stability re-think way we run power system Perspectives: policy makers and lawyers investors ..they are many. electricity grid and market operators
2 Global: the “stabilization triangle” substantial helpful effect on climate European level: About 25-30% of efforts Image credit: cmi.princeton.edu 200 Gt, in next 50 years: Each wedge: GT/year Install 2TW of wind; provide about 5 PWh
3 We’re coupling our energy system to climate patterns, and to weather patterns. Variable, but predictable. Regional-but renewable Image credit: The Atmosphere, 8th edition, Lutgens and Tarbuck, 8th edition, 2001
4 Will climate change affect wind power projects? Michelangeli and Loukos, 2007 Roughreasoninganticipates futurereduction in yield… ..detailed models confirm. Effect varies over globe; dependsonlocal features; hard to predict. Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007
Will wind power projects cause climate changes? wind energy conversion requires momentum transfer. 5
6 Will wind power projects cause climate changes? Brand 2009 minimum safe distance(2-10% deficit): order of tens of kilometers the recoverydistance(1% Deficit): hundreds of kilometers. Christiansen and Hasager 2005 Wake effect: becoming of legal interest Brand 2009
7 Will wind power projects cause climate changes? Keith, 2004 Change global mean temperature? Detectable but negligible compared to anthropogenic forcing. Takel, 2011 Wind power affects crops, local weather? First indication: helpful or neutral; but research just starting
8 Is there even that much wind power? Physical Potential Technical Potential Economic Potential Hoogwijk 2004
9 Is there even that much wind power? Technical: 96 PWh/year, Economic: 53 PWh/year at 0.13 €/kWh 21 PWhr/year at 0.052 €/kWh versus 15 PWh/year global electricity consumption of global electricity consumption Hoogwijk 2004
10 Is there even that much wind power? Many regions have resource exceeding consumption, costs differ. Hoogwijk 2004 3 PWh/year European electricity consumption in 2008:
11 How much has been built? As of 2004, about 0.05% of the economic potential was developed As of 2010: perhaps 0.4%. Source: GWEC Growth rate of last 5 years: ~27% (doubles every ~3 years) Is there enough money to build it all? Global: 0.5T USD a year to meet 450 PPM (vs bond market 90 T USD) Europe: to meet EU targets, 30-65 billion a year (vs bond market 23 T,GDP of Europe: 16T) Trend in pension fund investment in infrastructure: estimated at 1 T a year
12 Addressing investment risk: significant deployment barrier Samec 2011 Sources of risk: resource uncertainty, inflation, construction delay Mitigation instruments: wind derivatives, loan guarantees, construction insurance
13 Generation mix: limits and changes in thinking 30% renewable energy scenario studied in North America: (image credits NREL) Total system load: wind coal nuclear Storage or transmission needed to avoid curtailment Inflexible generation can impose minimum generation limit: “Cycling” of units uncomfortable; Need emerges for new types
14 Variability and Uncertainty Provision always existed for changes: both anticipated and unexpected. Image credit:Makarov et al, PNNL-19189, 2010 Madsen and Pinson: imm.dtu.dk, 2009 Wind power forecasts a common tool in control rooms.
15 Example: Denmark First to pioneer controllable wind power, because forecasts not perfect. Image credit: upwind.eu “Soft Storm Transition” or “Storm Control”: Farm-level control using pitch Wind speed (m/s) Image credit: upwind.eu Power production (MW) 0 minutes 2 Image credit: Gijs van Kuik, TU Delft, DUWIND
16 Example: Denmark Image credit: Energinet
17 Switched Power Electronics Interfaces Synchronous Machine (traditional) simple, fixed, strong Power Electronic Interface Complex, flexible, relatively fragile
18 Example: Ireland An island electric power system Must be mostly self-sufficient, even for short periods Contingency event: Loss of big generator, or introduction of big load Hirvonen 2003 In first instances: Need to use energy stored in system’s rotating masses
19 70-80% System collapses immediately Example: Ireland 60-70% System splits in half, collapses. 2008/2009 range of operation Wind turbine rotors not forced to be synchronous: -> several related problems Eirgrid, All-Island TSO Facilitation of Renewables Studies, FinalStudy Report
20 Example: Spain Electricity grid behaviour during a fault (lightening, tree, etc) generators can help by staying connected, in spite of voltage transient: formerlyallowed disconnect level newrequirement typicaltransient Image credit: RED EléctricaEspaña Bömer 2011
21 Example: Spain Wind power production behaviour *before* “ride-through” requirement: nuclear sized dips. Image credit: RED EléctricaEspaña How are the worst situations avoided?
22 ! Image credit: RED EléctricaEspaña
23 Wrapping up: From all these perspectives, • which ideas to take home ? We’re coupling our energy system to the climate in a new way. Variability and uncertainty in our power system: not a new thing, but changes can be expected Generation is always a mixture; wind power plants their own animal offering challenges but also benefits