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ICAO/McGill Conference on Aviation Safety, Security and the Environment September 14-16 2007 Civil Aviation and the E.U. Emissions Trading Scheme Martin Staniland European Union Center and Graduate School of Public and International Affairs University of Pittsburgh.
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ICAO/McGill Conference on Aviation Safety, Security and the Environment September 14-16 2007 Civil Aviation and the E.U. Emissions Trading Scheme Martin Staniland European Union Center and Graduate School of Public and International Affairs University of Pittsburgh
Civil Aviation and the E.U. Emissions Trading Scheme • What is the problem? • What is the Emissions Trading Scheme? • What are the goals for the civil aviation sector? • Who/what in aviation will the scheme cover? • How will it work? • When will it start? • Issues? Criticisms?
Civil Aviation and the E.U. Emissions Trading Scheme What is the problem? • Total EU Co2 emissions = c.50% of global total (plus NoX, water vapor) • Civil aviation emissions in EU = (2005) 161mn. tons (c.4% of EU total) • But rising sharply – by 73%, 1990-2003 (rising 7.5% in 2004 alone) • Projections of continued traffic growth, especially in accession states What is the EU Emissions Trading Scheme? • Created 2003 following ratification of Kyoto • Intended to contribute to holding down global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial level • Applied initially to12,000 plants within EU, in Phase I (2005-7) • Cap-and-trade: initial allocations in Assigned Amount Units (AAUs); surplus allowances may be sold in carbon market; deficit must be bought (or obtained via Kyoto “project credits”) • Civil aviation: added 2006, effective 2011
Civil Aviation and the E.U. Emissions Trading Scheme • What are the goals for civil aviation sector? • Hold emissions to 2004-6 level: 161 mn tons, vs. between 202 and 286 mn tons by 2020 under different “business-as-usual” scenarios • Required abatement (therefore) 41 – 125 mn. tons (20-44%), by combination of emissions reduction and purchases in carbon market • Who/what in air transport will the scheme cover? • Eventually, all commercial flights to and from airports within EU (challenged by non-EU states, including US) • Excludes military flights, flights by heads of state and government, emergency, training and recreational flights
Civil Aviation and the E.U. Emissions Trading Scheme • How will it work? • Operational measures: improved ATC; more efficient airport operations; changes in flight procedure (e.g., Continuous Descent Approach) • Technological changes: more efficient motors/aircraft design; new fuels • Strategic/commercial decisions: fewer flights, fewer new aircraft, larger but more economic aircraft, higher fares?
Issues? Criticisms? • Goal? Hold at 2004-6 level; reduce to 1990 level ?(!) • Open or closed system? (only civil aviation or all sectors?) • Base? (2004-6 or later?) • Allocation to whom? Aircraft operators (not states, airports, aircraft constructors) • Method of allocation? Free? (Grandfathering? Benchmarked?) Auctioned? Mixture of free and auctioned? What mixture? • Multiplier? (total environmental effect = 2-4 x accumulated Co2 emissions) • Monitoring: by fuel consumption • Accountability: “accountable entity” = Member State (+ airlines) • Scope: Intra-EU flights or all “arriving and departing” (i.e. including non- EU carriers: NB. for entire distance flown, not just within EU airspace) • Discrimination: LCCs? Short-haul/long-haul? New entrants? New Member States? Low income vs. higher income passengers? • Impact: What will it cost? Who will pay? Will it work?