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Travel and Tourism

Travel and Tourism

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Travel and Tourism

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  1. Travel and Tourism F. X. Murray Overview of the Travel and Tourism Industry, its importance to the global economy and the significance of civil aviation to that industry.

  2. Travel & Tourism Data1999 and 2010 • High Lights • Global Data • U. S. Data

  3. Travel & Tourism Data and Supporting Reports for the NASA Aeronautics Study Prepared by SAIC

  4. Critique & Technical Discussion of T & T Data • 1993 Data • Criticisms • Revisions • Recent Data System • Cautions

  5. Comparing 1994 & 1999 • No adequate Documentation or Definitions for 1994 Data • Terms not Comparable • Estimating Techniques Different

  6. World Travel & Tourism Council First Estimate of T & T Industry Economic Data--1993 Forecasts for 1994 and 2001 Immediate Objectives Support “Free Trade in the Air” Emphasis on Air transport Show significance of the T & T Industry T & T DATA HISTORY

  7. Industry Generated Data Lacked Documentation & Methodology Not Comparable with Existing Economic Databases Viewed by Others as Self-serving Criticisms of T & T Data

  8. Recommendations of Professionals • Rigorous Methodology • Definitions and Documentation • Links to Existing Official Economic Data Bases • Credible Data Collection Entities

  9. Resulting Data System • Mostother OECD Countries Now Provide Compatible Data • UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs • Collects Data from Most Countries • Uses Methodology & DefinitionsCompatible with OECD Countries

  10. Data for the U. S. • 1995 Whitehouse Conference BEA to Develop Data System • Travel & Tourism Satellite Account Completed 1998 • Methodology and Definitions Rigorously Documented • Integrated into the U. S. Input and Output Accounts • I-O Factors among Industry Groups Developed

  11. United Nations Data Collection • • UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs (Information Office) and UN TourismOrganization • • Now Collecting Data from Most Countries • •Uses Methodology & Definitions Compatible with OECD Countries

  12. Limitations of T & T SA • U. S. Data Based on 1992 Business Census • Assumption--1992 relationships (Input-Output) hold until next Census • I-O Factors revised after 1998 Business Census (Revisions Due Late 1999/Early 2000)

  13. World Travel & Tourism Council • 1999 Forecast Of T & T Economic Impact Derived from 1998 Data • Projection for 2010 is Included • Global and Regional Forecasts for 1999 and Projections for 2010 • General Agreement on Methodology & Terms

  14. Limitations on Newly Released Forecasts & Projections • All OECD Countries Now Report • No Data from Many Smaller Countries • Regional Samples Used for Some (Latin America, Eastern Europe) • E.g., Argentina and Brazil Used to Estimate Latin America • Assumed Growth Rates to 2010

  15. Travel & TourismHigh Lights for 1999 • Travel & Tourism Impact Direct and Indirect upon the Global Economy • 11% of GDP • 200 Million Jobs • 8% of Total Employment • 5.5 Million New Jobs per year until 2010

  16. U. S. Highlights • Data used in WTTC Data System • Importance of US in T & T Industry • Employment • Capital Investment • Government Spending • Federal Agencies • State & Local

  17. Key Points from Global Projection For 2010 For Travel & Tourism • Real Growth 3.3% per year Through 2010 • Economy GDP will be 11% of Global GDP • Employment will be 9% • Tax Revenues at 11.7% of Total

  18. T & T Forecast for 2010 Investment • Government Expenditures to Support T & T Increase at a higher rate than in T & T • Global Capital Investment • $733 B in 1999 and projected to be $1.5 Trillion by 2010. • T & T Capital Investment Grows Faster than Global Investment

  19. United States Data for T & T • Up to 25% of All Direct T & T Expenditures for Airfares • Largest Single Item • T & T GDP $1,067 Billion in 1999 • Japan next highest at $389 B. • T & T GDP Projected at $1.8 Trillion by 2010

  20. U. S. Employment & Government Spending • T & T Economy accounts for 17.5 Million U.S. jobs in 1999 (13.2%) • 20.2 Million U.S. Jobs Expected in 2010 (13.5%) • Governments spent $52.2 Billion for T & T 1999 • By 2010 Projected to reach $85 Billion

  21. Analytical Tools: Direct Economic Factors • Economic Factors for US Transportation Direct Impact per $ of Air Transport $ 1.00 • Primary Ind. (mfg) = .14 • Other Transport = .15 • Services, Misc. = .26 • Value Added = .45 • Primary Industries include Agri., mining, constr., & mfg.; Other Transportation includes pipelines & own transport; Services include finance, insurance, communications, Utilities & Gov’t.

  22. Direct & Indirect Economic Factors • Factors for US Air Transportation Direct & Indirect Requirements: • Per $ of Air Transportation Service • Primary Ind. (mfg) = .35 • Transportation = 1.17 • Services = .47 • Total = 1.99 • The Direct Impact is .99 or approx. $1 to $1: Indirect to Direct

  23. Travel & Tourism Factors • Direct Products & Services Required per $1 expended for Travel & Tourism in the U. S. • Air fares .25 • Lodging .16 • Meals, etc .14 • Shopping .12 • All Other .34 • Total $1.00

  24. Cautionary Notes • Definitions for T & T Economic Measures are cumbersome and difficult to master, e.g. • 1999 the “T & T Industry GDP” is $1,328 Billion, • BUT… “T & T Economy GDP” is $3,549, • AND… “T & T Demand” is $4,475 Billion

  25. Travel & Tourism Industry GDP (Supply) • Includes Direct Value Added Associated with T & T Consumption • Consumer expenditures (durables, nondurables & services) • Travel and Tourism Business Sales (private & public) • Travel and Tourism government expenditures • Travel and Tourism Foreign Trade (visitor exports)

  26. Travel & TourismEconomy GDP • Direct and IndirectValue Added including • T & T Consumption • T & T Capital Investment (Public and Private) • Government Expenditures • T & T foreign Trade

  27. Travel and Tourism Demand Includes • Personal Consumption (Durables, Non-durables, Services) • Business Travel (Corporate & Government) • Visitor Exports Government Expenditures • Capital Investment • Non-visitor Exports (World Tourism)

  28. Industry Perspective of the T & T Satellite Account • Captures all economic activity related to persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment. • For purposes of Satellite Accounting the optimal aggregated measurement is best determined from the demand point of view • Industry prefers the T & T Demand measure (largest measure of activity)

  29. Gross Domestic Product for T & T • GDP of Tourism Industries (Direct and Indirect GDP for Tourism Consumption) • Imports by Tourist Industries • Employment by Tourist Industries