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MEXICO Interest Aggregation and the Hegemonic Party System
PRI DYNASTY 1928-2000 MORE THAN 70 YEARS OF POLITICAL POWER
Organization of the Dynasty • Interest Group Aggregation • Peasants • Organized Labor • Middle Sectors • Business Community – officially on the periphery
The Tlatelolco Massacre (1968) • Security forces fire into student demonstrations over expenditures for the Summer Olympics • 300 + killed • Major blow to the political legitimacy of the PRI-center regime
Economic Crisis • cheverría increased social spending during an oil production and price surge. • Did this through deficit spending. • Falling oil prices along with higher interest rates caused inflation of peso and investment to leave. • Bank of Mexico borrowed 360 million dollars to stop devaluation of the peso bringing Mexico’s deficit to $25 billion dollars. • Echeverría let peso float and it then lost half of its value. Luis Echeverría (1970-76)
Economic Crisis Intensifies • New oil sites found and developed • Development increased Mexican national debt to unprecedented levels. • Mexico became the 4th largest oil exporter in the world. • With new oil revenue Jose Lopez Portillo (1976-1982) vastly expanded social programs and developed state industries.
El Dedo Falls on Miguel de la Madrid 1982 Elections Miguel de la Madrid • PRI selects a young Harvard-trained economist as its presidential candidate • Old guard marginalized • ISI & social democracy abandoned • Neo-liberalism • Loosening of control by PRI
National Elections of 1988 • Reaction to the neo-liberal policies of Miguel de la Madrid • Left wing of PRI follows Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas out of the party • Manuel Clouthier of PAN receives 17% of the total vote • Dubious victory of Carlos Salinas
Reform: INTEREST GROUPS BECOME MORE AUTONOMOUS • NGO’s (Alianzas Civicas) • Growing concern over civil rights • Monitoring groups • How much deception in apparent democratization?
Consequences of Institutionalizing the Reforms • Rise of the Opposition at the State & Local Levels • Intra-urban experiences confirm growing capabilities of groups not tied to PRI • 1997 congressional, state and municipal elections • PRI loses its majority in the congress • 8 governorships to the opposition • Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas elected mayor of Mexico – and permited to win office
1994 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS • PRI – from Luis Colosio to Ernesto Zedillo • Violence continues into the administration of President Zedillo • Assassination of Jose Ruiz Massieu (party president) • PRI and the drug cartel • Assassinations (Cardinal of Guadalajara) • Chiapas revolt smolders • International pressure to democratize
Zedillo Institutionalizes Democratic Reforms – Consequences • Rise of the Opposition at the State & Local Levels • Intra-urban experiences confirm growing capabilities of groups not tied to PRI • 1997 congressional, state and municipal elections • PRI loses its majority in the congress • 8 governorships to the opposition • Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas elected mayor of Mexico – and permitted to exercise the office
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OF 2000 • Zedillo refuses to exercise the dedazo • PRD: the Last Hurrah for Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas • Vicente Fox: from governor of Guanajuato to presidential candidate (PAN)
Presidential RESULTS: 2000 Vicente Fox 43.4% Francisco Labastida 36.9% Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas 17.0 % Others 2.7% Presidential election results map. Blue denotes states won by Fox (19+DF), Green denotes those won by Labastida(11), Yellow denotes those won by Cárdenas (1).
2006 Presidential Elections: Did they undermine or strengthen democracy? • Felipe Calderon • PAN political party • Favored emphasizing free markets • Focused on strengthening NAFTA • Help from US political consultants
Andrés Manuel LópezObrador • PRD leader • Opposed turn to neo-liberalism • Populist mayor of Mexico City • The poor come first • Some ties to Hugo Chavez
Roberto Madrazo: PRI • Governor of Tabasco from 1994–2000 • President of PRI – 2002 2005 • credited for bringing cohesion to a disjointed PRI after it historically lost the 2000 presidential election • neutralized political adversaries within the party.
López Obrador: Challenging the official result • Claims fraud • Demonstrations in Mexico City • Threatens to establish parallel government
Key Institutions that deal with Mexican Elections • Instituto Federal ElectoralThe Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) is an autonomous, public organization responsible for organizing and overseeing federal elections in Mexico. • Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federacion The Electoral Tribunal (TRIFE) is the top judicial electoral authority to resolve electoral disputes at the federal level or appeals of State Electoral Tribunal rulings
Political Parties: Shifting Social Bases • Dramatic shift in the 2006 election • PRI’s most dependable base before 2006 was the rural voter; did well with women and older voters. • In 2006 PRD’s Obrador did best among rural voters. • PAN did best among urban voters prior to 2006, but in 2006 PRD finished ahead of PRI for the urban vote.
Political Parties: Shifting Social Bases II • PRD did well among women in 2006. Women were focused on economic stability. • Education mattered less in 2006. • Social class mattered less as well. • Regional divides seemed to define the 2006 election.
Dominant Issue in Mexico’s 2012 Presidential Election • Violence & drug cartels • President Calderon’s policies • Performance (47,000 killed in six years) • Alternatives • Hugs not bullets • Blocking drugs from reaching the U.S. (behind the scenes accommodations)
Other Issues in Mexico’s 2012 Presidential Election • Little evidence of outright fraud • Intensification of tactics long employed by PRI (vote buying) • PRI gift cards • Media bias toward PRI • Role of foreigners in petroleum industry • Carlos Slim – media mogul
Nominee: Andrés Manuel López Obrador • Native of state of Tabasco • Exited with Cardenas when PRI adopted neo-liberal reforms • Mayor of Mexico City • Edged out in the election of 2006 • Popular vote - 15,896,539 • Finished second - 31.59% • Challenged outcome for second time • Exploring possibility of founding new political party Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD)
Nominee: Josefina Vázquez Mota • Native of Mexico City • Long time militant in PAN • Ally of President Felipe Calderón • First female presidential candidate of a major political party in Mexico • Popular vote - 12,785,728 • Josefina diferente • Finished third - 25.41% Partido de AccionNacional (PAN)
Nominee:Enrique Peña Nieto • Native: state of Mexico • Long-time militant in PRI • Leader of a new generation of PRI party leaders • Governor: State of Mexico • Repository of continuing suspicion of PRI and its style of governing • Popular vote - 19,225,745 • Winner - 38.21% Partido Revolucionario Instucional (PRI
States won by Peña Nieto in green, López Obrador in yellow, Vázquez Mota in blue.