“Climate Change” on Canadian Campuses: Issues & Trends Affecting Enrolment

1. “Climate Change” on Canadian Campuses: Issues & Trends Affecting Enrolment Western Canadian Deans of Arts & Science September 23, 2008 Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

2. Presenters Susan Gottheil Associate Vice-President, Enrolment Management Mount Royal College, Calgary sgottheil@mtroyal.ca Dave Hannah Associate Vice-President, Student and Enrolment Services University of Saskatchewan david.hannah@usask.ca

3. Introduction Review several broad issues and trends affecting higher education Consider the possible impacts of these on university enrolments “S.E.M.”: A new framework for thinking about enrolment Begin discussion on how to respond to these trends

4. 1. Enrolment? No Problem! • Too many students for too many years • Demand > supply we haven’t had to worry much about our enrolments • Monopolistic organizations – limited competition & little incentive to innovate • Offer same old programs in same old ways • “ Culture of Service” leaves a lot to be desired • Philosophy of “weeding out” rather than supporting student success • Limited experience with managing enrolments

5. 2. The demographic bubble is going to burst • Aging population • Traditional-age student base will decline significantly over the next 20 years • Geography is destiny: variability across Canada • Atlantic Canada: demographic decreases coupled with large number of institutions • Ontario: strong demand in Toronto GTA • Alberta: changing high school demographic, in-migration, hot economy • B.C.: increased demand for seats; university-colleges created as high school population declined – now more universities while province cuts funding to PSE system

6. 3. Thank goodness – participation rates will save us! • AUCC (2007) suggests increased participation rates will offset declines in traditional college age population • The impacts will vary by region • AB and SK have historically low participation rates – will they really increase? • Increasing participation rates saved us the last time (late 80’s/early 90’s)

7. But . . . • In 2003, 76% of Canadians aged 22 – 24 attended a PSE; in 1999 proportion was 62% • Proportion of high school graduates increased from 75% in 1999 to almost 90% in 2003 • How much higher can participation rates go (especially in a hot economy)?

8. . . . and who participates? 81% of 18 to 24 year olds whose parents have a university education participate in PSE, compared to 53% for young people whose parents didn’t go past high school (CMSF) Lower income students overestimate cost of postsecondary education, underestimate benefits (CMSF)

9. 4. The Economic Wild Card • Economic factors may help (or hinder) participation rates • Strong (and well-paying!) job market for those without postsecondary education is already being felt in some regions • Will the retirement of the Baby Boomers create a labour shortage & reduce the educational qualifications required for some jobs? • would this differentially affect jobs that currently require more “general” university degrees (such as a BA or B Sc)?

10. 6. “Son, I Hardly Know ‘Ya …” • “This year will come as no exception, and once again the faculty will remain the same age as the students get younger.” • Ron Nief • Director of Public Affairs, Beloit College

11. Students and the composition of the student body are changing • Still predominantly “traditional age” • Females outnumber males 2-1 • Greater diversity • Aboriginal and international students • immigrant , first generation & low income students • students with disabilities & mental health issues • “Millennial” students (and parents) • Many are working & juggling multiple commitments • more difficult to fully engage in university life • Half carry significant debt

12. Fewer students interested in education/learning “for its own sake” • Increased “careerist” & “employability” orientation • Students less willing to explore & experiment with program/course selection • Liberal arts becoming a luxury for a small minority

13. Students’ interests, goals & learning styles are changing: • Taking fewer courses/term and longer to complete degrees • Less well prepared academically (?) • “Swirling” enrolment patterns • Looking for more flexibility in scheduling & delivery methods • Increasingly looking at the “whole package” (?) • “Customer “ orientation expectations of high levels of service • Accustomed to active engagement, not passive receptivity

14. 7. The Networked Generation • Today’s PSE applicants are the first generation to grow up with the Internet • Networked – connected, mobile, multi-tasking • Social networking, on-line communities are hugely important in their lives • 15-18 year olds spend 88 minutes per day on social networking websites (10 hours per week) (Academica)

15. Implications for universities? • Development of the “stealth” marketplace • Secret shoppers • People get information directly from each other, not from institutions • Growth of WOM, “viral “ marketing • CRM systems, Web portals & enhanced Web sites • Information “just in time”, when I want it, how I want it • Example: Customized print-on-demand viewbooks • Expectation of 24/7 e-services

16. 8. It’s the end of the world as we know it • Increasing Competition • Tradition of attending the “local” University in W. Canada – students now see themselves as having choices • Expanding capacity, especially in AB and BC • Competition is escalating (especially for the “brightest and best”) • Recruitment and Scholarship programs ramping up • Increasing competition from non-university sectors

17. Blurring of institutional boundaries • Blending/ overlap of college & university roles, offerings • What is a university? A college? • What’s national? What’s regional? • Pressure for more seamless pathways, collaborative programs • Re-conceptualization of post-secondary education: tiering of PSEs • New Brunswick & BC: polytechnics • Saskatchewan – degree granting for SIAST? • Alberta: baccalaureate, polytechnic & community-based institutions • BC: regional universities

18. Differentiation • Long history of relatively few universities, almost all public, relatively comparable & of relatively high quality undergraduate education (especially compared to US) • Emerging trend towards increasing differentiation among institutions (Macleans, G-13) • This will increase as competition increases • At the same time, how different are our core programs, functions, delivery mechanisms? • To date, differentiation has been “at the edges” rather than at the core of our Universities

19. Accountability • Increased scrutiny by government, parents, students • Are we delivering what they are paying for? • Introduction of accountability measures • Growing focus on identifying and measuring learning outcomes • Questioning of high attrition rates and longer times to degree completion • If 50 per cent don't complete, what happens to them? • What is our responsibility to these students? • Why should the public pay for so few “outputs”?

20. Online Learning • Double digit growth figures in recent years • Distinctions between on-line and bricks & mortar institutions are blurring • Moving from the fringes to the centre • Why? • focus on high demand programs with strong career orientations • more convenient & flexible delivery mechanisms • increasing price of oil (transportation costs)

22. Fiscal Pressures • Decreased government funding • Targeted funding with more strings attached • Heavier reliance on tuition revenues • Increasing costs (food, energy, construction) • Deferred maintenance, crumbling buildings and infrastructure • Fixed costs are high and difficult to reduce (e.g. faculty and staff levels, salaries) Maintaining /expanding enrolment becomes necessary from a financial perspective

23. Responding to the New World Order • Many institutions have been slow to adjust to the “new world” • We continue to function as we always have • Lack of a strong "culture of service“ • Students seen as interrupting more important activities • Antiquated policies, procedures, programs, delivery methods and organizational culture that developed during the period of student abundance continue to function • Bicameral governance structures and collegialdecision-making processes make it difficult to respond quickly

24. 9. Summary • We’ve come through a generation where demand (from students) exceeded supply (of postsecondary seats) • Supply-side approach & limited competition lack of incentives to develop new, innovative programs & delivery methods • The tide is beginning to shift – soon supply will exceed demand • This shift pressure on institutions to become more sensitive to the interests, needs & demands of students

25. “When the waterhole dries up, the animals start looking at each other differently” African Proverb

26. 10. Attrition, Retention & Student Success • Although 4 out of 5 Canadians take some sort of PSE by their mid-20s, 1 in 7 drop out (Statistics Canada, 2007) • Nearly 1 in 4 high school grads with A averages are at risk for AW/DQ in first year (lack of structure, loneliness, inadequate preparation, uncertainties about academic majors)

27. U of S Study - 75% of leavers were academically eligible to continue - so why do they leave? • dissatisfied with their program (quit or transfer to another institution) • institution/program “not a good fit” • financial concerns • career indecision • personal circumstances • academic difficulties • unprepared - workload, expectations, external demands, financial costs, learning environment, academic standards

28. Retention programs & planning not well developed at most institutions • Use of NSSE & Canadian University Survey Consortium (CUSC) • Emphasis on “student engagement” in & out of class • Investing in improving student experience

29. Retention The success of institutional retention efforts ultimately resides in the institution’s capacity to engage faculty & administrators across campus in a collaborative effort to construct educational settings, classrooms & otherwise, that actively engage students (all students, not just some) in learning. - Vincent Tinto

30. Retention Best Practices • Bridging & transition programs • First-year programs, orientation & transition programs • Early feedback & pro-active intervention • Intrusive academic advising, educational goal-setting • Learning communities • Academic supports; Supplemental instruction • Non-academic supports • Family & community support • High tech, high touch, seamless support services

31. SEM…A Framework for Thinking About Enrolment

32. Prospects Inquiries Applicants Admits Matrics The Classic Admissions Funnel

33. Promoting Student Success:The Student Success Continuum Recruitment / Marketing Classroom experience Co-curricular support Degree/goal attainment Orientation Student’s college /university career Financial support Academic support Admission Retention

34. The Student Success Continuum Traditional Enrolment Perspective Classroom experience Co-curricular support Recruitment / Marketing Degree/goal attainment Orientation Student’s college /university career Financial support Academic support Admission Retention

35. The Student Success Continuum The SEM Perspective Degree/goal attainment Classroom experience Co-curricular support Recruitment / Marketing Orientation Student’s college /university career Financial Aid Academic support Admission Retention

36. Enrolment Management Enrollment management is an organizational concept and a systematic set of activities designed to enable educational institutions to exert more influence over their student enrollments. Organized by strategic planning and supported by institutional research, enrollment management activities concern student college choice, transition to college, student attrition and retention, and student outcomes. These processes are studied to guide institutional practices in the areas of new student recruitment and financial aid, student support services, curriculum development and other academic areas that affect enrollments, student persistence and student outcomes from college. - Don Hossler, 1990

37. The Enrolment Funnel is Different for Different Students • Student Type: • Aboriginal Students • New Canadians • International Students • First Generation Students • Northern Canadians • Rural Students • Students with Disabilities • Dislocated Workers • Francophone Students • Sole Support Mothers • Low-income Students • Visible Minority Students • High-Achieving Students

38. Enrolment Goals:The Classic Conundrum • All may want better students • Administration may want more students • Faculty usually want fewer students • Access vs. Quality -Adapted from Henderson (2005)

39. Enrolment Management System Student Characteristics Environmental Factors Institutional Goals Institutional Objectives Institutional Strategies Desired Outcomes Enduring Effect Enduring Behaviour Quantitative Goals Qualitative Goals Diversity Goals Persistence Goals Capacity Goals Net Revenue Goals Student headcount Admission average Transfer GPA Visible minorities, Aboriginal, international Retention rates, Student Satisfaction, graduation rates Classroom capacity, adequate sections, Class size Financial aid discount rate, international enrolment Student enrolment behaviour Demographic trends Competition Public Accountability (loan default rate, graduation, Accessibility, retention) Student geographic draw Economic Trends Off-campus employment availability Federal & provincial polices Member of underserved student group Beliefs & values Academic preparation Motivation to learn Educational aspirations Self-discipline Adaptability Interpersonal skills Peer involvement Ability to pay Study habits Family & peer Support • Marketing • Recruitment • Admission • Financial aid/pricing • Orientation • Residence • Athletics • First Year • Experience • Advising • Supplemental instruction • Service learning • Learning communities • Academic support • Peer support • Teaching & learning approaches • Student engagement • SEM organization • Data mining Awareness Interest Commitment Enrolment Persistence Satisfaction Education Relationship Institutional Loyalty Institutional Image Source: Kuh et al , 2007; Black, 2003

40. 12. What to do? Some ideas . . . • Institutional identity and distinctiveness • “What are you known for?” • Institutions (and Faculties) will need to more clearly identify who they are and what makes them different from other institutions • Increasingly important to develop a distinctive identity (“brand”) that will have an impact on your ability to attract students • Why should a student attend YOUR institution rather than another one (especially their local university)?

41. Institutional identity and distinctiveness (cont’d) • Is it possible to develop a central defining institutional identity at institutions that offer a dizzying array of programs & courses? • How can we work together collaboratively across organizational boundaries to develop a common identity ? (this is EXTREMELY difficult) • Can we identify our distinctiveness in terms that are meaningful to prospective students (rather than just to us and our peers)?

42. Develop innovative programs that reflect student interests • Consider student/prospective interests, needs, desires & market demand when designing new programs • connect your programs to their goals (e.g. career advantages) • demonstrate and communicate the “ROI” • Increasing interest in programs that cut across traditional departmental boundaries - innovative, inter-disciplinary, theme-based, combining degrees/majors/minors • Consider new markets - post-degree career focused programs (not necessarily traditional graduate progs)

43. Implement innovative & engaging pedagogies • Not only about what we offer, but also about HOW we offer it • Web 2.0 & desire for increased flexibility (scheduling, course offerings, mode of instructional delivery) • Engaging pedagogies: • on-line • small groups • problem-based learning • experiential learning opportunities • research opportunities • work/study • Community service learning • volunteer & community outreach opportunities • e-portfolios

44. Explore and develop partnerships, articulation agreements, transfer credit arrangements • Enhance Academic Advising • expand beyond course advising (“talking calendar” approach) • should include career/life exploration & planning as well as program and course advising • Focus on Student Success • Move from “weeding out” to “supporting success” • Proactive, intrusive retention strategies (e.g. early warning & academic support systems)

45. Build relationships & engage with your students • First year is critical – focus efforts there • Passive approaches no longer sufficient • Be intentional about getting students engaged and making connections (with faculty and each other) • Understand the importance of the “whole student experience” • Partner with others - connect your activities to the “whole student experience” (e.g. Learning Communities, activities in Residence, working with support service areas, etc.) • Formally recognize student involvement in other university activities using “co-curricular transcript”

46. Discussion

47. The EndFor a copy of this presentation, visit http://uwindsor.ca/sem