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Climate Change in the Columbia Basin. Sediment coring in alpine environments. Climate Change in the Columbia Basin. Presentation Overview : Introduction to climate science - variability and extremes. Projected future climate for the Basin.

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slide3

Climate Change

in the Columbia Basin

Presentation Overview:

Introduction to climate science - variability and extremes.

Projected future climate for the Basin.

Some implications for our land, water and communities.

slide4

Warming has Temporal Variability

Climate Variability

Short term: (years to decadal) ups and downs about the trend

line (e.g. El Niño/La Niña)

Temperature

About 20C

Time

slide5

Warming has Temporal Variability

Climate Variability

Short term: (years to decadal) ups and downs about the trend

line (e.g. El Niño/La Niña)

Plus decadal-scale trends

About 20C

slide6

Average Annual Temperature has

Increased Over the Last Century

Climate Change

Long-term trends or major shifts in climate (multi-decadal to century-scale)

9

C0

8

7

6

5

0.7 to 1.70 C at weather

stations across the Basin

4

1913

1933

1953

1973

1993

slide13

Average Annual Temperature has

Increased over the Last Century

…and is impacting the frequency of extreme events

9

C0

8

7

6

5

Data from Basin

4

1913

1933

1953

1973

1993

slide14

Probability of

occurrence

Increase in Mean Temperature

Historical

Climate

Cold

Average

Hot

slide15

Probability of

occurrence

Increase in Mean Temperature

More hot

weather

Historical

Climate

More

Record hot

weather

Less cold

weather

New

Climate

Cold

Average

Hot

slide16

Probability of

occurrence

Increase in Variance

Historical

Climate

More hot

weather

More cold

weather

New

Climate

Cold

Average

Hot

More record

cold weather

More record

hot weather

slide17

Probability of

occurrence

Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance

Historical

Climate

Cold

Average

Hot

slide18

Probability of

occurrence

Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance

and record

hot weather

Much more hot weather

Historical

Climate

Less change

In cold

weather

New

Climate

Cold

Average

Hot

the data
The Data

0.1 – 0.2 %

4 – 13 %

slide20

Warming has Spatial Variability

*

Temperature Anomaly 0C

slide21

Warming has Spatial Variability

*

Temperature Anomaly 0C

slide22

Warming has Spatial Variability

*

*

*

Temperature Anomaly 0C

slide23

Warming has Spatial Variability

*

Temperature Anomaly 0C

slide24

Warming has Spatial Variability

*

*

Temperature Anomaly 0C

slide31
National Academy of SciencesNational Academy of EngineeringInstitute of MedicineNational Research Council

SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS

“Most of the warming over the last several decades can be attributed to human activities that release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere.”

“The burning of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—for energy is the single largest human driver of climate change.”.

“Human-induced climate change and its impacts will continue for many decades, and in some cases for many centuries.”

slide34

300

280

260

240

CO2 (ppm)

220

200

180

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

Age (yr BP))

slide35

1

300

280

260

240

CO2 (ppm)

220

200

180

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

Age (yr BP))

slide36

Projections

2100 AD

CO2 (450-1100)

CH4 (1500-3700)

Today 393ppm

“Natural Range” CO2

100 yr

300

280

CO2 (ppm)

240

200

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

Age (yr BP)

Petit et al. (1999) Nature 399:429-436

slide37
National Academy of SciencesNational Academy of EngineeringInstitute of MedicineNational Research Council

Understanding and responding to climate change (Highlights of National Academies Reports, 2008)

Advancing the Science of Climate Change, America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010)

slide38

5

4

Projections

2100 AD

3

2

Global Temperature

(deg C)

1

...Provides Perspective

slide40

Canadian Regional Climate Model 3.6

Change in annual mean screen (2m) temperature (°C) in 2041-2060 relative to 1971-1990 simulated by CRCM3.6.1

*

slide43

Climate Extremes in the Canadian Columbia Basin:

A Preliminary Assessment (2012)

Up to four times as many warm summer days and nights.

slide44

42oC

38oC

slide45

Extreme Events in the Basin

Temperature or

Precipitation

Two to three-fold increase in the frequency

of extreme precipitation events with 5-, 10-

and 25-year return periods.

Two to eleven-fold increase in the occurrence

of 25-year record extremely hot days.

Time

slide46

From Dialogue to Action

Projected Impacts for the Basin

e.g. Transportation

slide47

Projected Impacts for the Basin

e.g. Infrastructure

e.g. Transportation

climatic extremes one example
Climatic Extremes – One Example

Precipitation 2012 Johnson’s Landing

Impacts

  • 4 people killed
  • 4 houses destroyed
  • Community water system destroyed
  • Road destroyed
  • Utilities Damaged

TMTV

Increased Soil Moisture

Decreased Soil Strength

Landslide

Source: Greg Utzig. www.kootenay resiliance.org

slide49

Athabasca Glacier

Change in 88 years

slide50

Climate Change Impacts

Continuing Rapid Recession of

Alpine Glaciers

Ice loss at Kokanee Glacier

since ca. 1870

Kokanee Glacier ice margin 2010

Approximate ice margins as of ca. 1870

slide51

Climate Change Impacts

Streamflows and Snowpack

slide52

Climate Change Impacts

Water Supply:

An Example from Kaslo

slide53

Climate change impacts & planning:

Stormwater management

The confluence of Ward and Baker – Nelson BC, 2012

slide54

Climate change impacts & planning

Flood Risk and Extreme Events