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MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 9. Controls on Climate Change Professor Menglin Jin. Outline: IPCC CA Efforts on Energy Kyoto Treat. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

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met 112 global climate change lecture 9
MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 9

Controls on Climate Change

Professor Menglin Jin

Outline:

  • IPCC
  • CA Efforts on Energy
  • Kyoto Treat
the un framework convention on climate change

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’

climate change 2001 the scientific basis wgi contribution to ipcc third assessment report
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisWGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report

Summary for Policymakers (SPM)

Drafted by a team of 59

Approved ‘sentence by sentence’

by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists)

14 chapters

881 pages

120 Lead Authors

515 Contributing Authors

4621 References quoted

ipcc assessment report
IPCC Assessment Report
  • IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    • Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).
    • Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling)

“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”

(IPCC) 1997

"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“

(IPCC),2001

(IPCC) 2007

ipcc assessment report7
IPCC Assessment Report
  • IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    • Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).
    • Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling)

“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”

(IPCC) 1997

"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“

(IPCC),2001

The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.

(IPCC) 2007

slide8

Human Responsibility for

Climate Change

The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since

the mid-20th century.”

Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

ipcc video
IPCC video
  • http://www.met.sjsu.edu/metr112-videos/MET%20112%20Video%20Library-MP4/future%20impact%20from%20ipcc/
model sensitivity
Model Sensitivity
  • Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive systems.
  • They can respond differently to the same radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2
    • This means that different models give different answers to the same problem
    • Thus, we use a range of models to determine the range of possible future scenarios.
model sensitivity11
Model Sensitivity
  • Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive systems.
  • They can respond differently to the same radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2
    • Thus, we use a range of models to determine the range of possible future scenarios.
emission scenarios
Emission Scenarios

SRES (special report on emission scenarios)

notes on temperature projections
Notes on Temperature Projections
  • Projected Warming: 2000 – 2100 ranges from ~1.4°C to ~5.8°C.
  • Curves represent warming produced for seven scenarios by a model with average sensitivity.
  • Each bar on right represent range of warming produced
    • by models of differing sensitivies for a specific scenario.
land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes
Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes

Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC

some areas are projected to become wetter others drier with an overall increase projected
Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

sea level rise
Sea Level Rise

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

climate change impacts
Climate Change Impacts
  • What signals would we expect from a warmer world?
    • Higher average temperature
    • Higher maximum temperatures
    • Higher minimum temperatures
    • More precipitation
    • Higher sea level
    • etc
  • What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th century?
us co 2 emissions
US CO2 Emissions
  • Total emissions ~ 5,788.5 million metric tons
  • ~ 22 metric tons per person
  • Industry: 35%
  • Transportation: 33%
  • Residences: 18%
  • Commercial: 14%
  • 1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%)
average us personal energy use per person
Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person)
  • Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month Natural Gas: 15 therms per month
  • Electricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per month
  • Airline Miles flown  147 miles per monthTotal:
    • Latest estimate ~ 17,600 lbs of CO2
  • Kyoto allowance (for US):
    • ~11,000 pounds
  • To stabilize climate (550ppm)
    • 4,700 pounds
mitigation of climate change
Mitigation of climate change
  • Mitigation:
    • Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative environmental impacts.
  • Mitigation can include:
    • avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action;
    • minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or
    • magnitude of the action;
    • rectifying the impact by repairing or
    • restoring the affected environment
slide29

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted

in Kyoto, Japan,

on 11 December 1997 and

entered into force on

16 February 2005

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to

the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding

targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community

for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels

over the five-year period 2008-2012.

the kyoto protocol
The Kyoto Protocol
  • A United Nations sponsored effort:
    • Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels.
    • The Protocol will go into force after
      • The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries.
      • The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
    • Current status:
      • 156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO2.
      • US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of CO2 emitted)
      • Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005
kyoto protocol
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim:
    • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals:
    • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy
kyoto protocol33
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim:
    • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals:
    • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy
    • Protection and enhancement of sinks
kyoto protocol35
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim:
    • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals:
    • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy
    • Protection and enhancement of sinks
    • Promote sustainable agriculture
kyoto protocol37
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim:
    • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals:
    • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy
    • Protection and enhancement of sinks
    • Promote sustainable agriculture
    • Research and promote new and renewable energy
kyoto protocol44
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim:
    • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals:
    • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy
    • Protection and enhancement of sinks
    • Promote sustainable agriculture
    • Research and promote new and renewable energy
    • Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
kyoto protocol46
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim:
    • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals:
    • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy
    • Protection and enhancement of sinks
    • Promote sustainable agriculture
    • Research and promote new and renewable energy
    • Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
    • Encourage ‘good practices’
ipcc video49
IPCC video
  • http://www.met.sjsu.edu/metr112-videos/MET%20112%20Video%20Library-MP4/future%20impact%20from%20ipcc/
  • UN Climate Change Conference.mp4
kyoto protocol50
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim:
    • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals:
    • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy
    • Protection and enhancement of sinks
    • Promote sustainable agriculture
    • Research and promote new and renewable energy
    • Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
    • Encourage ‘good practices’
    • Cut GHG from aviation
kyoto targets
Kyoto Targets
  • Industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990
  • Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents ~30% cut).
  • Calculated as an average
    • over the five-year period of 2008-12.
  • Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs
slide52
HFC - Hydrofluorocarbons
  • PFC- perfluorocarbon, a powerful greenhouse gas emitted during the production of aluminumPFC
kyoto targets53
Kyoto Targets
  • National targets
    • European Union - 8% below 1990 levels
    • USA - 7% below 1990
    • Japan - 6% below 1990
    • Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels)
    • Australia 8% over 1990 levels)
    • Developing countries (no target)
      • China, India etc.
kyoto targets developing countries
Kyoto Targets: Developing countries
  • The UN Framework on Climate has agreed:
  • The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases
    • has originated in developed countries;
  • Per capita emissions in developing countries
    • are still relatively low;
  • The share of global emissions originating in developing countries
    • will grow to meet their social and development needs.
the kyoto mechanisms
The Kyoto Mechanisms
  • Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by way ofthree market-basedmechanisms.
  • The Kyoto mechanisms are:
  • Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market" 
  • Clean development mechanism (CDM)
  • Joint implementation (JI).
kyoto protocol mechanisms
Kyoto Protocol Mechanisms
  • Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012
  • Countries can meet their commitments together
  • Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets.
  • Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets
  • Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’
emissions trading
Emissions Trading
  • Each country has an emission limit.
  • If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.
  • This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.
  • Countries also receive carbon credits through
    • clean energy programs (i.e. greentags)
    • carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans)
slide58

Main reasons the US did not sign the Kyoto Protocol?

Economic burden

No limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India)

Protocol is not going to help much

"We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first things first are the people who live in America"

- President Bush

video for global warming debate
Video for global warming debate
  • http://www.met.sjsu.edu/metr112-videos/MET%20112%20Video%20Library-MP4/climate%20feedback/
  • Moyers-1.mp4
jim hansen obama s second chance on the predominant moral issue of this century
Jim Hansen: Obama's Second Chance on the Predominant Moral Issue of This Century
  • http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-james-hansen/obamas-second-chance-on-c_b_525567.html

Member of

National Academy of Science

NASA GISS Director

al gore s new book
Al Gore’s New Book
  • http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/200911#pg27

“Several problems, one solution”

slide62

Solutions - government

  • Kyoto Protocol
  • California potential leader
slide66

Solutions - personal

  • Transportation
  • Home
  • Food
  • Consumption

www.earthday.net : Top 10 Actions; Ecological Footprint

slide67

Four R’s

Rethink

Reduce

Reuse

Recycle

slide69

Climate Change lead to:

    • Sea levels
    • Extreme heat
    • Health impacts
    • Water resource
    • Agriculture and vegetation
    • etc
slide70

Climate change and California

Average Temperature:

    • Winter - warmer winters - snowpack declines by 70-90% by 2090
    • Summer – warmer summers (5-15F by 2090)
  • Coastal cities: coastal erosion by sea level rise.
  • Human health: Urban air pollution/heat extremes impact most vulnerable
  • Water resources: Total water, but early runoff from Sierras costly to adapt.
  • Agriculture: Major challenge to various crops industries.