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Climate Change and Response

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  1. Sustainable Development Practice in China Climate Change and Response

  2. Climate change is unequivocal; • Impacts in China; • Responsibility and burden sharing • China is a developing country • Efforts made in China for mitigation • Towards adaptation • Summary

  3. According to IPCC report AR4: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include: • Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, • Widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns • and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones

  4. Changes in Precipitation, Increased Drought • Significantly increased precipitation in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia. • The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - consistent with warming and increases of atmospheric water vapour • Drying in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. • More intense and longer droughts observed since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.

  5. According to China Meteorological Administration, the climate in China:

  6. Temperature Rainfall Drought frequency Flooding frequency

  7. Average landed typhoons: 7/a The annual sand/dust storm during spring in the northern China: 5.5 days/a

  8. Warming of the globe and China Global China (Global data from HadCRUTv3 and China data from Wang et al)

  9. 2007 was the warmest year since 1951 10.1℃ (Center on Climate Change, CMA)

  10. Mean temperature changes in China (1958-2007) (Unit: ºC per decade) (中国气象局国家气候中心) (Center on Climate Change, CMA)

  11. Precipitation in China (1958~2007) “Three Gorges” dam: 1994~2006 Western: increase from 15% to 50%;Eastern: “wetter in the south and drier in the north”; Southern: increase from 5% to10%; Northern: decrease by 10%-30%

  12. Changes in number of storming days

  13. Future annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation changes over China (Relative to 1980-1999) Precipitation is likely to increase by 2-3% in 2020 Precipitation is likely toincrease by 2-5% in 2050 Precipitation is likely toincrease by 6-14% by the end of 21st Century Surface air temperature Annual precipitation changes (Center on Climate Change, CMA)

  14. 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s Highest frequency90% Highest frequency80% Highest frequency60% Highest frequency60% Highest frequency70% Inter-Decadal Variation of Summer Precipitation Blue: Frequency of more prec.; Red: Frequency of less prec. 20 Century 21 Century 2000-2008 • Further northward migration of summer precipitation in China? • Contribution of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing?

  15. Happening recently:

  16. Storming and flooding in 2010 … Landslide: 1467 died, 298 missing

  17. Shenyang 07/20 Nanjing 07/18 Beijing 06/23 Changsha 06/28 Chengdu 07/03 Wuhan 06/18 In 2011 … “seeing sea in cities”

  18. Solid waste at Three-Gorges 7000 drums of toxic chemicals down-washed with flooding in Jilin 7/28 Toxic mug leaking 6/29 Leaking of toxic wastewater from Hengary aluminum factory10/5 Sequential events

  19. Flooding in South Asia

  20. 2010 Flooding in Pakistan, 1539 died, 17 million affected

  21. 2010 Flooding in India

  22. 2011: July to November, flooding in southern Thailand Causing over 500 casual; 16 of 55 districts of Bangkok affected; ~~~ a long-term trend?

  23. Responsibility and burden sharing

  24. Responsibility and burden sharing • Responsibility: polluter pays, common and differentiated responsibilities, based on accumulated (effective) emissions, and equity (per capita) principle;

  25. The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, an American think tank close to progressive business, has made a proposal using a set of three criteria to divide countries into three groups. These criteria,standard of living, responsibility and opportunity, consist, in turn, of different indicators. • Responsibility for causing climate change is defined in terms of countries’ historical and current total emissions, emissions per capita and projected future emissions. Historical emissions are defined as the cumulative CO2 emissions during the period 1950–95. Estimated growth in emissions is extrapolated using the average annual growth in emissions in 1992–95. • Standard of living reflects the fact that in poor countries emissions very often stem from an effort to meet basic necessities and that richer nations are better equipped to cut down emission levels. The indicator used for defining the standard of living is gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

  26. The opportunity criterion factors in the differences between countries’ chances to reduce emissions. It is defined according to the energy intensity of the economy, i.e. the amount of energy that is used to produce a given economic unit of output. • Finally, the Pew Centerdivides countries into three groups, or tiers, according to these criteria. • “Must Act Now” includes the majority of OECD countries, a few transition economies, economically more prosperous southern nations (e.g. Chile, Israel and Malaysia) as well as some oil-producing countries, such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. • “Should Act Now, But Differently” is comprised of the majority of the transition economies, the rest of the western industrialised nations as well as a good number of middle-income developing countries. • The rest of the developing countries fall into “Could Act Now”.

  27. Common and differentiated responsibilities • According to UNSD, China CO2 emission has reached the first place since 2006. CO2 emissions in major countries (2007)

  28. China (Mainland) annual total carbon emission reached No 1中国大陆年碳排放总量已经达到世界第一 China mainland USA India Annual carbon emission from fuel in 1900-2010 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Data http://cdiac.ornl.gov/

  29. Accumulated carbon emission is low, but rising quickly累积碳排放量低,但在迅速增大 USA China mainland India Accumulated carbon emission from fuel in 1900-2010, based on CDIAC

  30. Accumulated “surviving” carbon emission ~ “Natural debt”累积“留存”碳排放量 ~ 国家自然债务指数 USA China mainland India Based on the Siegenthaler formula, cited by K. R. Smith 1996:

  31. Per capita emission is low, just exceeded global average USA Global China mainland Per capita carbon emissions for fuel in 1950~2010, based on CDIAC

  32. Accumulated “per capita emission” of China is also low 中国累计人均碳排放量也仍然低 China (m) Accumulated per capita carbon emissions from 1950~2010, based on CDIAC

  33. Per capita “natural debt” of China is also low 中国人均碳排放自然债务指数也仍然低 China (m) Based upon the national natural debt curves

  34. Growth rate 2010 5.9% yr Growth rate 2000-2010 3.1% per year Growth rate 2009 -1.3% per year Growth rate 1990-1999 1% per year Uncertainty (6-10%) - + Fossil Fuel & Cement CO2 Emissions Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009

  35. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters 2010 Growth Rates 2500 10.4% China 2000 4.1% 1500 USA Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) 1000 9.4% Russian Fed. 500 5.8% 6.8% Japan India 0 2000 2010 1990 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011

  36. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples 2010 180 UK 140 Canada Australia 100 Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) Spain 60 The Netherlands 20 Denmark 0 2000 2010 1990 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011

  37. Top 20 CO2 FF Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2010 2500 2000 1500 Per Capita Emissions (tons C person y-1) Total Carbon Emissions (tons x 1,000,000) 1000 500 0 Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Population World Bank 2011

  38. Figure 1.5: Intensities of energy use and CO2 emissions, 1970–2004. PPP ~ Purchasing Power Parity TPES ~ Total Primary Energy Supply

  39. Laspeyres decomposition Figure 1.6: Decomposition of global energy-related CO2 emission changes at the global scale for three historical and three future decades.

  40. China Response to Climate Change

  41. Efforts by China Family plan; Forestation; National information reports to UNFCCC (2004) China climate change report (2005) National action plan in responding to climate change (2007) Commitment (2010) of reducing carbon strength by 40~45% in 2020; “Low carbon” technology and development Alternative and renewable energy development: wind power, solar energy, and nuclear power stations “Xiaokang Society” Eco-city development and “Eco-civilization”

  42. Example: no centralized heating in the southern China: south to Huai River Need thermal underware?

  43. Shanghai actions The four key measures in the 2007 Implementation Plan: • Re-form or restructure 3000 coal burning boilers and furnaces to save 200,000 tons of coal. To 2010, to reach energy saving capacity of 3 million tons of coal and accumulated saving by 9 million tons of coal. • Installing desulfurization device in 14 coal burning power plants; wastewater collecting pipeline network in metropolitan area; the 3rd phase construction; upgrading of ZhuYuan and BaiLongGang wastewater plants; 25 more wastewater plants; pipeline network for 30 wastewater plants; 28 industrial wastewater collecting pipeline network • Optimizing power generation mode to replace electricity 2.3 billion kWh, saving 200,000 coal; With public transportation priority (33%), completing 420 km subway/sky train system and 300 km pub-bus special line system; New constructions should apply 50% energy saving standard of China and to reach 65%; Energy saving reform/reconstructions on 30 million m2 building; and energy saving diagnostics for large scale (>3000 m2) commercial buildings. • Strengthening the management in key energy consumption enterprises, e.g., by means of on-line monitoring, for reach over 95% pollutant attainment discharges.

  44. Shanghai actions Ten key energy saving projects (since 2007): • Electric appliances energy saving 用电设备节电工程、 • Energy supply system optimization 能量系统优化工程、 • Waste heat and pressure utilization 余热余压利用节能工程、 • Coal burning boiler and furnace 燃煤工业锅炉窑炉节煤工程、 • Construction energy saving 建筑节能工程、 • Air conditioning and home appliance 空调和家用电器等节电工程、 • Green lighting 绿色照明工程、 • Distributive energy supply 分布式供能等工程、 • Metropolitan transportation and alternative fuel 城市交通节约和替代石油工程、 • Government energy saving 政府机构节能工程。

  45. Shanghai actions • In 2006~2009 • Shanghai energy intensity (energy consumption of unit GDP) has reduced by 17.12%. It is of 84.14% of the target of Shanghai’s 11th Five-Year Plan. In 2010, this index should be further reduced by 3.6%. • SO2 and COD emissions have reduced in these four years by 26.1% and 19.9%, already reached the planned targets (26% and 15%). • Renewable energy • Wind power: On shore 24.4 MW (2008), Offshore wind power 100 MW • Solar energy: Over 5MW at EXPO and Chongming Island, etc. • EXPO2010: • Solar power generation over 5MW, and 1000 new energy cars should reduce carbon emission by 0.280 Mt • Close up 800,000 kW small scale coal burning power plants; 500,000 sets of energy saving air conditioners; 12 million energy saving lamps etc. • Problem: during the first quarter of 2010, energy consumption was increased by 16.96% in comparison of 2009. Electricity consumed by 16.79%, and the development trend of heavy industries is difficult to be controlled.

  46. For example: • Subway and sky trains • London: 408 km • New York: 370 km • Tokyo: subway 286.2 km + trains ~ 1000 km • Shanghai (2010) 420 km, to extend to 567 km in 2012 and 877 km in 2020 towards 1000 km

  47. Shanghai studies in academic aspect • Shanghai per capita carbon emission is close to EU OECD countries 上海人均碳排放量已经达到欧洲发达国家的水平 • Related researches 相关研究 • Qian JIe and Yu Lizhong 2003: Study on contribution of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel in Shanghai钱杰,俞立中2003 • WANG Bingyan et al. 2004: Local air pollutant and CO2 emissions scenarios under low carbon development:Shanghai case study王冰研,陈长虹等2004 • The current group 2007,2009: Carbon emission reduction in Shanghai 本组2007,2009 • Guo Yungong et al. 2009: The decomposition research on energy-related carbon emissions of Shanghai 郭运功,林逢春等2009 • Zhao Minet al. 2009: Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in Shanghai City 赵敏,俞立中2009 • In Blue Book of Shanghai Annual Repot on Resources and Environment of Shanghai (2010) • Peng Weibin: On the driving forces of Shanghai low carbon economy development • Liu Xinyu: Shanghai low carbon city development coordinates • Liang Xiaohui et al.: The long term view of Shanghai low carbon city development 刘新宇、彭伟斌、梁朝晖 2010 • Main findings 主要成果 • Carbon emission amount, emission strength, and emission per capita 上海市碳排放量,碳排放强度(GDP,人均) • Main influential factors: population, heavy industry, transportation, construction, and improving living standards. 影碳排放的主要因素:人口、大工业、交通、建筑、生活水平 • Limited influence by energy restructuring 能源结构调整影响有限 • Carbon sinks are not enough to offset the increase of sources 碳汇的改进不足于达到减排的要求

  48. Comparison with int. large cities

  49. Observation • Low carbon strategies • Low carbon energy: wind, solar, geothermal, tide, and nuclear; • Reduction of the scale of traditional industries; • Industrial structure optimization: reducing high-carbon industries, adding low carbon and carbon capturing industries • Reducing energy consumption per unit production; • Promote the development of CCS technologies. • Questions • Definition of “Low Carbon”? • “Low Carbon” or “Lower Carbon”? • Challenges in population growth and economic development; • Difficulties • Primary results of a comprehensive study reveals that the 40~45% reduction in relative emission may be reached, but it is very difficult to reach the IPCC target for per capita emission reduction, even CCS is included.

  50. China carbon emission per capita increases quickly, close to the global average中国人均排放量迅速增加,接近世界平均水平 • China’s carbon emission is huge in the sense of annual total amount, but compare with developed countries: 在年排放总量的意义上,中国碳排放严重,但和发达国家比较: • Accumulated total emission amount is still small; 累积排放总量小 • Per capita average emission is low; 人均碳排放量小 • Accumulated per capita emission is also low 累积人均碳排放量也小 • but, both annual emission and per capita emissions increase quickly; 但年排放量和人均排放量在迅速增加 • As a responsible nation, China is making efforts and committed 40~45% emission reduction before 2020; 作为一个负责任的国家,中国已经承诺在2020年前,见效碳排放强度40~45% • Other measures…