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Climate Change Planning in Alaska’s National Parks

INTERIOR ALASKA PARKS Post-Workshop Brainstorming Session: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? May 9 , 2012. Climate Change Planning in Alaska’s National Parks. Common Issues. Education Co-management Cooperation at local level Budget issues Data coordination Monitoring.

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Climate Change Planning in Alaska’s National Parks

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  1. INTERIOR ALASKA PARKS Post-Workshop Brainstorming Session: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? May 9, 2012 Climate Change Planning in Alaska’s National Parks

  2. Common Issues • Education • Co-management • Cooperation at local level • Budget issues • Data coordination • Monitoring

  3. Important Management Actions Important Common Management Actions between two groups (1A & 1B) Revisit management policies Identify bottlenecks to change in mgmt and address need to expedite process Increased invasive/introduced species management Cooperative planning with tribes to address changing resources, etc. Policy and harvest regulations for new species Adjust harvest regulations and seasons for traditional species Cross-boundary collaborative approach – need to partner with other countries, agencies, stakeholders, etc. Access planning (e.g., erosion) Development plan model (for permafrost, trails, road, access, facilities, etc.) Increased development of alternative energy sources (response to cost of fuel) Research and information needs common between two groups (1A & 1B) Baseline data on river flow Baseline archeological research to address potential loss Research on phonological timing/mis-timing Increase capacity for interpretation/education Improved monitoring = fire effects, glaciers, fisheries, megafauna Increase social science to reach technology and citizen scientists Other Issues Secondary effects of ocean acidification Predator control Lack of funding/personnel/support Economic limitations (beyond park funding, e.g. for communities) Increased pressure for resource extraction Motivate management to focus on climate change issues Moose farming? Reindeer herding? More fish hatcheries? Wilderness designation? Pressure to redefine park boundaries/zoning (split up large parks?) Volcanic eruptions/earthquakes RS2477s becoming roads Prepare for evolving health & safety issues More hazards management and training for NSF employees

  4. Important Management Actions • Assisted migration, e.g. wood bison – develop a strategy • Maintaining genetic diversity for core species (Dall sheep) • Managed fire and prescribed burns by park staff • Change the regulation process to be more flexible and provide a quicker response to the needs of subsistence users. Work with SRC, OSM, RA • Foster and encourage subsistence lifestyles and sources of knowledg • More fuels reduction – firewise • Greater work with communities • Examine whether fire can be used as a tool to help avoid catastrophic fires • Partner with DEC to address health issues related to smoke • Research and information needs common between two groups (2A & 2B) • Identify and study ecological change so as to attribute cause and effect, e.g. caribou fading due to CC not bus traffic. Collect into fon hunting seasons and wildlife viewing. • Improved monitoring of rare plants • Assess human preferences and tolerances regarding smoke and fire effects from natural and prescribed fire • Anticipate consequences of ecological actions: • Bringing in bison • Losing caribou, Dall sheep, pika • Assisted migration, e.g. wood bison – develop a strategy • Maintaining genetic diversity for core species (Dall sheep) • Managed fire and prescribed burns by park staff • Creating interpretive materials, interacting with existing and new educational groups, and direct one on one interactions • Big-picture planning • Redo all park plans to be robust under climate change • Build new roads to improve recreation opportunities and to offset lost visitors, and megafauna viewing • Shift the climbing season • Explore and address issues for climbers given basecamp challenges • Build stewardship and contact with children • Expand school programs with longer season • Build capacity for climate change messaging • Develop in-park messaging that addresses climate change issues and implications to ensure improved and more consistent understanding among park staff • Engage more with subsistence leaders to improve understanding of chand and collaborate to create messages and garner support to address issues

  5. Possible Products Report pros • Includes all details on process, results, scientific background, narratives, and discussion • Can be peer-reviewed; “official” • Can also be made available on line cons • Too long and unwieldy for many audiences • Expensive to produce (full color printing, binding, etc.

  6. Possible Products Poster pros • Includes some details on process, results, scientific background, narratives, and discussion • Highly portable • Many venues for presentation; wide range of audiences • Can also be made available on line cons • Too brief to convey the full depth of the process and results • Can’t fully convey narratives • Risk of misinterpretation

  7. Possible Products Video/Youtube pros • Can be made available on line • Appealing and accessible to a wide range of audiences; compelling • Excellent format for narratives cons • Risk of misinterpretation • May be considered less “official” or “serious” • Difficult to include all information and background

  8. Possible Products • Curriculum • Trainings • Community meetings • Workshops • Audio/podcast • Other?

  9. Links to SNAP products • Maps, graphs, and charts of climate projections • By region or by park • Temperature, precipitation, season length, thaw, freeze, other?

  10. Central Alaska Date of Freeze Projections 5-model average A1B scenario 2010s 2090s 2050s

  11. Central Alaska Date of Thaw Projections 5-model average A1B scenario 2010s 2050s 2090s

  12. Central Alaska Length of Growing Season Projections 5-model average A1B scenario 2010s 2050s 2090s

  13. Links to public education topics PDO education • Poorly informed public • Strong impacts on perception of climate change

  14. Links to public education topics Fire • Public knowledge? • Effects on tipping points Bettles fire 2004 http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/AlaskaMark/11?gallery=

  15. Links to public education topics Rain vs Snow and Extreme Events • Important in workshop process • Uncertain • Important • Effects on tipping points http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/arctic-storms/

  16. Surveys Audiences? Questions to ask? Information gaps? Ways to use the results? NPS limits on surveys Other groups that can do this?

  17. The power of story “Pretty Sunsets” / Is There Anyone Out There?Look at that sunset . Pretty ain't it ... Damn! Sometimes I wish I were not so beautiful.Sometimes people just see the beauty, but they don't really see me.Name's Gaia ... People call me Mother Earth ... or you can call me “The land.” (Waves dismissively) Whatever ...Whatever ... That would sum up my life today: "Whatever" Let me tell you:I've always tried to take care of myself. I had a lot of self-control. (Straightens up)Sure, I'd go through phases - doesn't everybody - but I kept it together.But now, I'm not so sure. I'm starting to feel out of balance.(aside) Whew, it's hot in here. Are you hot? Used to be I felt I had plants on all the right places.Tall trees, willows, beautiful little tundra flowers of all different colors ...And berries - oo-oo Baby! I was fecund!But then things started to change. It's like my soul just dried up.All of a sudden I've got shrubs squeezing out my grasses and flowers…. …(continued)

  18. The power of song The Northland is a Changin’ Come gather round people Wherever you roam And admit that the waters Around you have gone And accept it that soon You’ll be dry to the bone If your salmon to you Are worth savin’ Then start takin’ a stand Or the fish will be gone For the rivers they are a changin’… …(continued)

  19. The power of maps Landscapes of Change • An interpretive guide • to Denali National Park • Last updated April 17, 2050

  20. Subsistence North Road Wood Bison Trails Fire South Road Permafrost/Wetlands

  21. Interpreting Landscape Change In the past several decades, (starting in 2011) we have developed an integrated set of interpretive and educational materials focused on the issue of Denali’s changing landscapes in response to climate change. We use a variety of different resources including paired historical-recent photos, quantitative data from the parks long term vegetation monitoring program, and materials from various scientific research studies to develop a suite of exhibits and information about how the Park landscape has changed over time in response to the changing climate. The flagship product from this work is the “climate change holodeck” which allows visitors to experience several decades of accelerated vegetation change in a sensaround 3D virtual reality environment. For example, the visitor can experience first-hand the thrill of repeated high-intensity crown fires that have occurred in the warmed park landscape. The products will include displays at the visitors center, web exhibits, technical reports to communicate the changes that have occurred in the Park.

  22. Subsistence North Road Wood Bison Trails Fire South Road Permafrost/Wetlands

  23. Subsistence Denali subsistence users have worked with NPS managers to modify hunting laws and policy to adapt as much as possible to the warmer and more moist climate we see today. Examples of the changes include broader hunting seasons and harvest methods that better mimic natural predation. The park managers have worked with subsistence users to help communicate these changing subsistence patterns to the public so that they can better understand the role of subsistence in a changing world. Working together we have been able to maintain subsistence as a viable lifestyle and continue the connectivity of people to the land.

  24. Decision Tree, with uncertainty Missing Links Players not at the table • Lacking full personal buy-in at all levels • Some superintendants were not there – high level managers needed • Businesses/concessions Shortened training process • How would a one-day workshop work? • People need to leave the workshop with definite follow-up tasks to take back to the park More communities • Understanding of culture and values • Place-based education

  25. Next Steps Come up with some kind of worksheet that inserts scenario planning into general planning Three days is NOT too long if people are personally invested in the process and in carrying forward the goals defined during the workshop • Everyone needs an assignment – a personal action step, and perhaps a 6-month group goal and a one year group goal • This should be clear on day one Using the scenario planning process in other areas • Empowering people in other planning, not necessarily climate change related • How do we change how we do business?

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