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Will China Democratize?. Waves of Democratization. ``A group of transitions from nondemocratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period”. The First Two Waves.

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waves of democratization
Waves of Democratization
  • ``A group of transitions from nondemocratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period”
the first two waves
The First Two Waves
  • A long and slow wave from 1828 to 1926
  • A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1922 to 1942
  • A wave of democratization after World War II from 1943 to 1964
  • A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1961 to 1975
the third wave
The Third Wave
  • Started in Portugal and Spain in mid-1970s
  • Spread to South America from late 1970s to early 1980s
  • Reached Asia in late 1980s
  • Surge of transitions in East Europe at end of 1980s
  • South Africa 1990
economic variable
Economic Variable
  • Economic development
  • dispersion of resources
  • economic pluralism
  • social pluralism
  • political pluralism
economic variable8
Economic Variable
  • Economic development
  • middle class
  • demand for democracy
  • elite bargaining
  • political accommodation
economic variable9
Economic Variable
  • Economic development
  • rising expectations
  • economic difficulties
  • popular discontent
  • regime crises
regime changes
Regime Changes

Non-democracy

Preservation

State Crises

Regime Change

Democracy

Democracy

Non-democracy

china favorable conditions
China: Favorable Conditions
  • Economic development
    • emergence and growth of new social groups
    • dispersion of resources to society
  • Technological advances
  • Ideological decline of Marxism, Leninism, and Mao Zedong Thought
  • Influence of Hong Kong and Taiwan
  • Influence of Western liberal democracies
obstacles to democratization
Obstacles to Democratization
  • Dominant single-party
    • strategic adjustments
    • coercive forces
  • Liberalization without democratization
  • Alliance of authoritarian and business interests
scenarios of change
Scenarios of Change
  • Preservation of authoritarian regime
  • Gradual transition to authoritarian pluralism
  • Gradual and moderate liberalization
  • Gradual and moderate democratization
  • Radical transition toward new authoritarian regime
  • Radical transition toward democracy
patterns of democratization
Patterns of Democratization
  • From top down
    • Conflict of interest
    • Elite competition
    • Gradual transition
  • From bottom up
    • Popular demand
    • Political movement
    • Radical revolution