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UNFCCC Conference China Corner: Green Development in China

UNFCCC Conference China Corner: Green Development in China. China’s Low-carbon Development Xue Jinjun, Professor at School of Economics, Nagoya University Chairman of Academic Committee, Institute of Global Low-carbon Economy ( http://iglce.org/ ). Contents. China’s High Carbon Economy

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UNFCCC Conference China Corner: Green Development in China

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  1. UNFCCCConference China Corner: Green Development in China China’s Low-carbon Development Xue Jinjun, Professor at School of Economics, Nagoya University Chairman of Academic Committee, Institute of Global Low-carbon Economy(http://iglce.org/)

  2. Contents • China’s High Carbon Economy • A Theory for the Low-carbon Economics • China Towards a Low-carbon Economy • Conclusion

  3. 1, China’s High Carbon Economy(1) China’s High Growth

  4. 2, China’s High Carbon Economy(1) China’s High Growth Figure 2 GDP Per Capita Source: IMF，World Economic Outlook 2011. CIA, 2011. World Bank，World Development Indicators 2011.

  5. 1, China’s High Carbon Economy (2) Export-led growth Figure 4 Trade Ratio in China [(Export + Import) / GDP] Source: China Statistics Yearbook 2011.

  6. 1, China’s High Carbon Economy (2) Export-led Growth Export and CO2 Emission in China Source: World Bank, Data Base, China.

  7. 1, China’s High Carbon Economy (3) China’senvironment KuznetsCurve – SO2 Source: China Statistics Yearbook 2011.

  8. 1, China’s High Carbon Economy (4) China’sCarbonKuznetsCurve – CO2 Source: IMF，World Economic Outlook 2011. CIA, 2011. World Bank，World Development Indicators 2011.

  9. Ⅰ. China’s High Carbon Economy (6) The world largest carbon emitter The Shares of China in the world Population: Manufacturing Production Source: IMF，World Economic Outlook 2011. CIA, 2011. World Bank，World Development Indicators 2011.

  10. 2. A Theory for the Low-carbon Economy (3) Carbon and environment constrained EKC 10

  11. 2. A Theory for the Low-carbon Economy (5) The Low-carbon catch-up theory and a new EKC LCE with new Tech.

  12. 3, China Toward a Low-carbon Economy (1) Background • Copenhagen Accord (COP15, Denmark 2009): • United States sets its targets that would reduce GHG emissions to 17% below 2005 levels by 2020; 42% by 2030; and 83% by 2050. • European Union promised to cut its GHG emissions by 30% below 1990 levels by 2020. • New Japan government pledged to cut its GHG emissions by 25% below 1990 levels by 2020. • Canada's target is to reduce GHG emissions by 20% below 2006 levels by 2020. • China announced its intention to reduce the CO2 emissions intensity within its economy by 40-45% by 2020.

  13. 3. China’ Toward a Low-carbon Economy (2) Decreasing of CO2 Emission Per GDP

  14. 3, China Toward a Low-carbon Economy (3) Energy Structure in China Source: China’s Statistical Yearbook, 2011

  15. Achievements gained Accumulated CO2 emission reduction amounts to 1.4 billion tons Accumulated energy savings exceed 0.6 billion tce Energy Intensity of GDP reduced by 19.06%

  16. 3, China Toward a Low-carbon Economy (3) Energy Intensity in China Source: Xue and Zhu (2011).

  17. 3, China Toward a Low-carbon Economy (4) Energy Saving Achievement in the period of the 11th 5-year Plan Source: Xue and Zhu (2011).

  18. 3, China Toward a Low-carbon Economy (5) Factor Decomposition of Energy Saving Effect Source: Xue and Zhu, 2011

  19. 3, China Toward a Low-carbon Economy (6) Contribution of key policies to carbon intensity improvement of GDP (2005-2009) Source: Xue and Zhu, 2011

  20. Conclusions on decomposition of energy intensity of GDP • Energy saving due to structural effect mostly comes from structural adjustment within the secondary sector and tertiary sector • Structural adjustment among the primary sector, the secondary sector and the tertiary sector only contribute about 7.9% Energy-saving and its Contributions from Structure Change for 11th FYP

  21. Conclusions on decomposition of energy intensity of GDP • From the perspective of action based approach, most energy saving comes from the ten key energy saving projects.

  22. 3, China Toward a Low-carbon Economy (7) Green-Low-Carbon Development in the 12th FYP Source: The 12th FYP, 2011

  23. 3, China Toward a Low-carbon Economy (8) Non-fossil Energy Development Plan in the 12th FYP Source: Xuan Xiaowei, 2011

  24. 4, Conclusion • China became the second super economic power as well as the largest carbon emitter in the world. • China, as an emerging economy and responsible super power, should take bigger responsibility and act as a leader in carbon emission reduction. • China has been making the biggest contribution to the global worming world issue by actively dealing reducing energy intensity and carbon emissions. • The 12th FYP will lead China to a Green-low-carbon Economy.

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