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“Estimating the probability of fire in Amazonia ”

“Estimating the probability of fire in Amazonia ”. Manoel Cardoso, Carlos Nobre, Gilvan Sampaio. Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos INPE-CPTEC Brazil. University of New Hampshire Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space.  Amazonia is changing .

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“Estimating the probability of fire in Amazonia ”

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  1. “Estimating the probability of fire in Amazonia” Manoel Cardoso, Carlos Nobre, Gilvan Sampaio Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos INPE-CPTEC Brazil University of New Hampshire Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space

  2.  Amazonia is changing Source: Carvalho et al. 2001

  3.  Future/past fires = ? Processes related to fires (spatial and temporal scales) in a simple view Presence of fuel, flammability and ignition sources Estimates of fires ? fire activity, area burned, biomass affected, … start by Probability of fire (chance of fires to occur)

  4.  Estimating probability of fire (Pf) Ignition sources Regions under conditions C Presence of fuel Flammability One way to estimate Pf: N = Regions that are under conditions C nf = Regions under conditions C, and that had fires

  5.  Datasets used to estimate Pf → Factors identified in previous studies Distance from roads Ignition sources Forest cover Presence of fuel Precipitation Flammability

  6. Data on fires AVHRR Fire pixels / Brazil 2000-02 INPE/CPTEC 0.01º, ~dy

  7. Data on fuel MODIS forest cover / 2001 NASA 0.25º, ~yr

  8. Data on flammability Observed precipitation / Jan-Apr INPE/CPTEC 0.25º, dy

  9. Data on flammability Observed precipitation / May-Sep INPE/CPTEC 0.25º, dy

  10. Data on flammability Observed precipitation / Oct-Dec INPE/CPTEC 0.25º, dy

  11. Data on ignition sources Distance from main roads IBGE 0.05º, ~5yr

  12. Results for North Amazon

  13. Results for South Amazon

  14. Results for Northeast Amazon

  15.  General conclusions The probability/chance of fire to occur was quantifyed based on distance from main roads, and rainfall during the dry season for three different regions in Amazonia In all regions, the probability of fire decreased with the distance from main roads and the amount of rainfall Framework to produce interesting fire estimates: In units of probability/chance of fires to occur Results are suitable for warning systems: operating at 0.25o and fire-season time scale Results can be combined with fire behaviour data and be used to estimate fire consequences Vegetation models Emissions models

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