Probability Assessment. Objective Theoretical models probability theory statistical analysis Empirical Evidence stock market data market analysis Objectivist Views Classical view of probability
Ask: “Would you prefer to bet that the exploration project will be successful, or that the wheel will stop on orange?”
. . . and so on.
1. Establish a range by identifying the 0.05 and 0.95 fractiles.
Answer: 50,000 BOE
Answer: 850,000 BOE
2. Next, assess the median of the continuous distribution.
Answer: 650,000 BOE
1.) Equally Probable Interval Approximation
2.) Specific Interval Approximation
1. What was the year that St. Augustine, Florida was established?
2. How many automobiles were registered in California in 1972 (in millions)?
3. How many miles is it from San Francisco to Hong Kong?
4. How many miles is it from Los Angeles to New Orleans?
5. What was the population of the U.S. in 1900?
6. What is the length of the Golden Gate Bridge in feet?
7. What is the total number of square miles in Canada?
8. What is the length of the Amazon River in miles?
9. How long does it take the planet Pluto to revolve around the sun once (in earth years)?
10. What year was Beowulf written?
A. Drawing a red marble from a bag containing 50% red marbles and 50% white marbles.
B. Drawing a red marble seven times in succession, with replacement, from a bag containing 90% red marbles and 10% white marbles.
C. Drawing at least one red marble in seven tries, with replacement, from a bag containing 10% red and 90% white marbles.