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LOOKING AHEAD TOGETHER: The ACVA Annual Meeting . Outlook for U.S. Travel and Tourism . Travel – Taking its Punches. 9-11. FLU. Where we stand – Down but some positive signs. Leisure Travel Trends. In decline since Q3 ‘08 Travel still viewed as a “right” Shorter, closer-to-home trips

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

LOOKING AHEAD TOGETHER:

The ACVA Annual Meeting

Outlook for U.S. Travel and Tourism

leisure travel trends
Leisure Travel Trends
  • In decline since Q3 ‘08
  • Travel still viewed as a “right”
  • Shorter, closer-to-home trips
  • Trading down, not out
  • Frugality reigns – a “New Normal”?
  • Some early signs of recovery in leisure travel
business travel trends
Business Travel Trends
  • 51% of executives report declines in business travel and reductions in budgets, averaging 35% (Kellogg Study)
  • Contraction expected to continue across nearly all business trip types (Oxford Economics Study)
  • A trio of challenges – business conditions, image and technology
  • A “New Normal” here too?
visitor volume through first six months
Visitor Volume Through First Six Months

- 3.5%

- 4.5%

- 6.3%

- 10.2%

Sources: U.S. Travel Association; Oxford Economics/Tourism Economics; U.S. Department of Commerce-Office of Travel and Tourism Industries

visitor spending through first six months
Visitor Spending Through First Six Months

- 11.0%

- 11.9%

- 12.5%

- 14.7%

Sources: U.S. Travel Association; Oxford Economics/Tourism Economics; U.S. Department of Commerce-Office of Travel and Tourism Industries

top 25 markets revpar percent change august 2009 ytd
Top 25 Markets - RevPAR Percent ChangeAugust 2009 YTD

Most of Top 25 markets below US average

lodging industry performance in alexandria area january august 2009
Lodging Industry Performance in Alexandria Area, January – August 2009

Source: Smith Travel Research

alexandria lodging performance 2009
Alexandria Lodging Performance - 2009

y-o-y % change

Source: Smith Travel Research

alexandria lodging performance 200916
Alexandria Lodging Performance - 2009

y-o-y % change

Source: Smith Travel Research

alexandria lodging performance 200917
Alexandria Lodging Performance - 2009

y-o-y % change

Source: Smith Travel Research

alexandria lodging performance 200918
Alexandria Lodging Performance - 2009

y-o-y % change

Source: Smith Travel Research

some destinations doing better than others
Some destinations doing better than others
  • Larger attractions with bigger price tags having more difficult time than smaller attractions
  • Theme park attendance down in most places
  • Casino operators are struggling
  • Museums tending to do better with attendance but hurt by declining donations and public financing
  • Zoo attendance up across the Midwest
  • County fairs doing booming business
  • National park visitation up 4.5 percent during first half
traveler sentiment index tm tsi improving
Traveler Sentiment IndexTM (TSI) improving

Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™

affordability index surges
“Affordability” Index surges

Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™

but money available for travel index still weak
But, “Money Available for Travel” Index still weak

Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™

leisure travel intentions higher than same point last year
Leisure travel intentions higher than same point last year

Percent of U.S. adults intending to take leisure trip in next six months

Equates to potential 5 million more U.S. adult leisure travelers

Source: U.S. Travel Association and Ypartnership’s Travelhorizons™

business travel intentions down compared to last year
Business travel intentions down compared to last year

Percent of U.S. adults intending to take business trip in next six months

Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership’s Travelhorizons™

travel frivolous or necessary
Travel: Frivolous or Necessary?

Necessary

Core Business Function

Commonplace

Unnecessary

Dispensable

Frivolous / Luxury

the return on investment of u s business travel
The Return on Investment of U.S. Business Travel
  • Study conducted by Oxford Economics and Synovate with oversight by U.S. Travel Association.
  • Informed by 3 surveys: 500 U.S. business travelers (Synovate); 300 U.S. corporate executives/business travel decision makers (Synovate); and 400 corporate executives/business travel decision makers (U.S. Travel/Kellogg School).
  • Econometric Analysis (Multi-factor productivity).
business travel key findings
Business Travel: Key Findings

Sources: U.S. Travel Association; Oxford Economics; Synovate

benefits of business travel meetings and incentives
Benefits of Business Travel, Meetings and Incentives

Sources: U.S. Travel Association; Oxford Economics; Synovate

slide33

Travel Snapshot for 2009

Sources: U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics;

U.S. Department of Commerce-Office of Travel and Tourism Industries; TNS TravelsAmerica

what to expect in 2010 assuming no swine flu pandemic in u s
What to Expect in 2010 (Assuming no swine flu pandemic in U.S)
  • Slow improvement in the economy and the travel and tourism industry;
  • Often smaller losses rather than positive gains;
  • More reductions in air flights – return to immediate post-9/11 levels
  • Increases in international visitation, but return to previous levels not likely to occur until 2013;
  • Consumers still wary of spending money on large-ticket items;
  • Rising unemployment dampening ability of consumers to support economic growth
  • A “New Normal” in both leisure and business travel?
expected gains in 2010
Expected “gains” in 2010

Domestic

Leisure

Volume

Domestic

Business

Volume

Domestic

Spending

International

Visitors

Int’l

Spending

1.1%

2.2%

3.0%

3.1%

Remember: Increases coming off

a really bad year

6.4%

international visitors to u s 2000 2010
International Visitors to U.S. (2000-2010)

Arrivals in Millions

2000: Unmatched record year for overseas arrivals

(26.0 m)

Sources: U.S. Travel Association; Tourism Economics; U.S. Department of Commerce-Office of Travel and Tourism Industries;

Secretaria de Turismo (Mexico); Statistics Canada

slide39

2009 U.S. Travel Association Priorities

  • Addressing Industry Needs in a Struggling Economy
  • Effectively Working With the New Washington
the new normal
The New Normal

October 26-28, 2009 - Little Rock, Arkansas

questions to be addressed at 2009 mof
Questions to be Addressed at 2009 MOF
  • When will the recovery arrive?
  • What will it look like?
  • Who will benefit?
  • And why?
  • How can you succeed in the “new normal”?
slide42

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scook@ustravel.org