Why modeling the space environment?

1. Integrated Dynamics through Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA)A collaboration between EMC and SEC to integrate meteorological and space weather effectsInitially target upward coupling: the response of the upper atmosphere to lower atmosphere forcingPI:Tim Fuller-RowellCOI: Rashid Akmaev, and Mihail CodrescuNOAA Space Environment Centerand CIRES University of ColoradoCOI: John Retterer, AFRL

2. Why modeling the space environment?

3. Classical ionospheric storm Geospace Mission Definition Team Report

4. TEC above the CHAMP satellite altitude of 400 km on October 30, 2003 Mannucci, private communication, 2005

5. Highly Enhanced Total Electron Content and GPS Phase Fluctuations During October 30, 2003 Storm Intense GPS Phase Fluctuations (Delta TEC/MIN ) Occur in the Auroral Region and along the Storm Enhanced Total Electron Content (TEC) Gradient. Basu et al., submitted to GRL 2005

6. SATCOM Message 064. THE QUICK BROWN FOX JUMPS OVER THE LAZY DOGS BACK 01234567<9"TI  ?65.( VHE UUicK vROWN$GOX JUMPS OVER†THE!McZY(f~d¸z.9g?_f_}_ j›sSL 33 s %E QUICK$BROWN(FOX JUM‘S OVER THE0L—ZY ?OGS‚—CK 0123456789 TIÌU¤M ?67. (THE QUKcK BROWN GOY"JUMPS _V˜Z ™‰.O ÁOx'??.9 :c™l???0SsQJ.ª:.$~ $U ¶S?IcK0 SˆN …? MUM“Û!_VGS* THE LAZY DOGS BACK 01=3456789 TIMES 069. THE QUICK BROWN FOX JUMPS OVER THE LAZY DOGS BACK 0123456789 TIM Average Signal Level Receiver Fade Margin ACTUAL SATCOM MESSAGES SATCOM MESSAGE ERRORS 15 Ascension Island 12 6 April 1997 9 6 3 Relative Signal Strength (dB) 0 -3 -7 -9 -12 00:21:00 00:22:00 00:23:00 Universal Time (hh:mm:ss) S. Basu, private communication

7. Geomagnetic Storm of 31 March 2001 Tropospheric wet delay =7.5 cm Seth Gutman, FSL

8. How can one do a better modeling job?

10. Millstone Hill ISR Measurements Tides and gravity waves Goncharenko and Salah, JGR, 1998

11. Tides from below Only propagating tides included in most models (active research) No planetary waves included yet (active research) Amplitudes and phases are uncertain by at least 50% Very important for the D- and E-regions (80-150 km) Important for the F-region (300-500 km) variability

13. Increasing Complexity • Models and the computational platforms have become extremely complex • Excessive time and resources are dedicated to solving computational rather than scientific problems • Need for software infrastructure for Earth system modeling http://www.esmf.ucar.edu/

14. Modeling Framework Goals • Leverage common software • Solve routine computational problems once • Provide efficient data communication • Provide model component coupling and sequencing • Provide time management • Parameter specification http://www.esmf.ucar.edu/

15. Modeling frameworks Several under development • SWMF (http://csem.engin.umich.edu/SWMF) • Overture (http://www.llnl.gov/CASC/Overture) • ESMF (http://www.esmf.ucar.edu)

16. Joule Heating and Auroral Processes CTIPE Major Species Composition Ion Drag and Molecular Dissipation Spectral Dynamical Core Eddy Mixing Column Physics Interface Radiative Heating and Cooling SMLTM Parameterized Gravity Waves Troposphere: Convection, Hydrology, Clouds Planetary Boundary Layer GFS Surface: Orography, Drag, Land-Sea Contrast

17. Coupling Layer ESMF Superstructure Model Layer: User Code Other Component Models … IPE Model Neutral Atmosphere Model Fields and Grids Layer Low Level Utilities Layer ESMF Infrastructure External Libraries External Infrastructure

18. Neutral/Plasma Coupling

19. Key Requirement for Space Weather The physics of the neutral/plasma coupling problem requires a 3D regriding scheme

20. Conclusions We are excited to learn about and plan to use ESMF First step will be to try the coupling layer (Fields and Grids and Low Level Utilities) Second step will be to try the ESMF superstructure and infrastructure Full ESMFisation is the final goal