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NOAA Space Environment Center Space Weather Activities. Bill Murtagh NOAA Space Environment Center Boulder, Colorado. European Space Weather Week ESTEC November 18, 2005. Overview. SEC in the National Weather Service Primary SEC Objectives Research/models to Operations
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Space Weather Activities
NOAA Space Environment Center
European Space Weather Week
November 18, 2005
SEC Joins National Weather Service (NWS) as one of the official National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
09 Sep 2005: NWS Director, D.L. Johnson, briefed space weather conditions to NOAA Chief of Staff (Scott Rayder), who in turn briefed the General Counsel (Stan Sokul) of the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the White House.
Space Weather is now included in the daily and weekly NWS reports to NOAA and DOC leadership
Space Weather UpdateNOAA sunspot group 808 stayed very active this week and produced several significant solar flares (up to R3 on the NOAA Scale). The strong (S3) radiation storm that started Sep 8 ended on Sep 11. Moderate to strong (up to G3) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed from Sep 12-15. During this period, aurora was visible as far south as Colorado and Lajes Field, Azores, Portugal.
Nuclear Reg Comm
Airline Polar Flights
Precision Guided Munitions
Carbon Dating experiments
Aircraft Radiation Hazard
Commercial TV Relays
Communications Satellite Orientation
Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote
Sensing Instrument Damage
Satellite Power Arrays
Long-Range Telephone Systems
Radiation Hazards to Astronauts
Interplanetary Satellite experiments
VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN)
Over the Horizon Radar
Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites
Research & Operations Requirements
Satellite Orbit Prediction
Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments
Ionospheric Rocket experiments
Short-wave Radio Propagation
Growth of Space Weather
Program Baseline Assessment
Space Weather Program constraint #1
– Regional space weather forecasts and the transition of models and related research into operations
The need- Customers operating on continental and sub-continental scales are demanding regional specification and forecasts of space weather.
The Response - NASA, NSF, and DOD have expended tens of millions of dollars to develop models of the local and regional reaction of the space environment to forcing inputs from the Sun; many of these models are now mature and ready for transition to operations.
The Problem - NOAA’s Space Environment Center (SEC) has been unable to fund transitions of these critical models. Lack of resources constrains NOAA’s ability to deliver what customers want.
So how do we convince the decision makers?
Total (estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Data
NOTE: The plot above does not include many of the research efforts underway that rely on solar wind data
Web Site: More than 30 million files transferred each month.
All the above numbers reflect monthly usage near solar minimum!
UPOS - University Partnering for Operational Support
Solar Proton Penetration (into high-lat Ionosphere) Model
Field Alligned Currents
Radiation Belt Environment
Geomagnetic Storm Forecast (Dst)
Geomagnetic Storm Forecast (Kp)
Real-time Interplanetary Shock Prediiction (RISP) System
Prediction of Energetic Electron Flux at Geosync Orbit
Real-time Upstream Monitoring System (RUMS)
Active Region Helicity Injection
Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) Solar Wind Model
CISM – Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling
1 to 7-day prediction of the daily Ap
1-day prediction relativistic electron flux in the 2-9 MeV
Wang Sheeley Arge
Ambient Solar Wind FM
Global Solar Wind Forecast Model
Global Magnetospheric FM
LMSAL/VSL Solar Wind Model (validation)
Lindsey CME Propagation Model
Gopal CME Propagation Model
Geomagnetic Storm Prediction Models
DMI – Elman recurrent neural network
Berkeley – Burton Model
IRF-Lund – Lund neural network
LASP Dst prediction
GSFC/SWRI Dst Model Predict
Costello Kp Model
REFM – Relativistic Electron Forecast Model
STOA – Shock Time of Arrival Model
ISPM – Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model
EIE – Energetic Ion Enhancement
Real-time UAF Eulerian Parallel Polar Ionosphere Model
Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM)
ISTP Magnetopause and Bowshock Dynamic Modeling
IPS – Magnetopause Model
ESA – Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis Prediction System (SAAPS)
DMI – Geomagnetic Activity Forecast (GAFS)
BGS – Solar Wind Monitoring and Induction Modeling for GIC
Real-time Prediction of Auroral Electrojet Indices (GSFC)
Prediction of high-lat geomag from ACE RTSW (GSFC – lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov - 1999
Radiation Belt Electrons at Geosynchronous Orbit (LASP)
rtAMIE – Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics
LiMIE – Linear Modeling of Ionospheric Electrodynamics
Engineers Model for Solar Energetic particles in Interplanetary
Space – (Barcelona- Lario)
Metaech SpaceCast/Powercast geomag fcst System
STD Prediction Service (Oler)
Magnetic Specification and Forecast Model (USAF)
GOES data Usage
Eight million GOES file transfers per month (web only)
– 140,000 unique users monthly
Status of NOAA’s efforts to get an operational coronagraph
PPBES - It is proposed to fly a coronal mass ejection imager (CMEI) on GOES-R series.
Coronagraph imagery is expected from NASA’s SOHO and STEREO satellites until about 2011. Then, CME images will cease, as NASA has no plans to fly a replacement coronagraph.
This need has been accepted as valid by the GOES-R project, as reflected in the GOES Mission Requirements Document (MRD) and Program Requirements Document (PRD).
However, the CMEI has been deemed unaffordable by the GOES-R project. It is not manifested for flight on GOES-R, although it is listed as a high priority Pre Planned Product Improvement (P3I) if additional money becomes available.
The January 20, 2005 Radiation Storm, once again, caused impacts:
“Its been nasty …. The S3 (NOAA Scale) two days ago resulted in less optimum polar routings to Polar 4 rather than Polar 3, and lower flight levels. All this increases fuel requirements and reduced revenue payload. In addition, because of the effect on HF comms, we have abandoned polar today altogether. We must stop our Chicago to Hong Kong in Anchorage because no other routes provide non-stop capability.”
G. Cameron, Dispatcher, United Air Lines
United Airlines identified space weather as the #1 concern during polar operations
The New York Comm Center reported:
07Sep 1800Z: Solar activity severely impacted all HFcomms. Higher frequencies utilized with little effect. 24 aircraft position reports and NYC ATC messages were relayed via sat-voice between 1040Z and 1939Z. Severe operational impact.
The San Francisco/SFO Comm Center reported:
07Sep 1755Z: SFO sends ARINC Solar Flare Activity Advisory of moderate to severe impact to HF comms to airline customers. SFO experiencing extreme HF "white-out“ conditions virtually wiping out all Pacific HF.
11Sep 0050Z: Tokyo and Port Moresby Radio having difficulties, SFO will assist as needed. 13Sep 1930Z: Solar activity severely disrupting HF comms in all Pacific areas throughout daylight hours. Severe communication impact and severe operational/service impact.
Major airlines rerouted flights away from the poles because of current and anticipated space weather conditions. This occurred several times during the September activity. These costly reroutes (~$100k) require an additional fuel stop and new crew.
The advent of new long range aircraft such as the A340-500/600, B777-300ER and B777-200LR
On June 18, 2004, the US and China concluded a bilateral air services agreement, permitting a nearly 5 fold increase in weekly frequencies over the next 6 years.
Airlines operating China-US routes go from 4 to 9 Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249 over the next 6 years.
The Transportation Dept estimates the economic impact of the agreement at $12 billion in additional revenues for US carriers over seven years. - IATA
GROWTH ON POLAR ROUTES
Typical time savings in minutes and dollars per flight (2003)New York - Singapore 209 minutes $44,000Vancouver - Hong Kong 125 minutes $33,000
NOAA ScalesMaximum in Currently
Geomagnetic Storms minor none Solar Radiation Storms none none Radio Blackouts moderate moderate
24 Hour Forecast
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be extreme.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G5 level are expected.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S3 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level are expected.
Watches, Warnings, Alerts, and Summaries
Issue Time: 2004 Feb 24 1713 UTCALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5Threshold Reached: 2004 Feb 24 1712 UTC
Radio Blackout Plot
Product will be introduced in 2006
- Protons 80 keV – 700 MeV (16 channels)
- Electrons 30 keV – 4 MeV (8 channels)
SEC can not succeed without its partners: