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Climate Change: The Physical Basis The Fellowship - March 1 st 2014. Alan Journet Ph.D. Professor emeritus (Biology/ Environmental Science) Southeast Missouri State University alanjournet@gmail.com Cell: 541-301-4107 http://kaconjour.com

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climate change the physical basis the fellowship march 1 st 2014

Climate Change: The Physical BasisThe Fellowship- March 1st 2014

Alan Journet Ph.D.Professor emeritus (Biology/ Environmental Science) Southeast Missouri State University

alanjournet@gmail.com

Cell: 541-301-4107http://kaconjour.com

Co-facilitatorSouthern Oregon Climate Action Nowhttp://socan.info

Presentation http://socan.info/presentation-project/

outline
Outline
  • Introductory remarks
  • Global patterns
  • Science and change
  • Competing hypotheses
  • Milankovitch
  • Solar activity
  • Galactic Rays
  • Volcanoes
  • Oscillations
  • Greenhouse Gases
  • Models and projections
slide3

What are these?

30 years teaching biology at Southeast Missouri State University:

Mainly ecology, science methods, conservation biology – so let’s start with a little biology…...

What incited my concern

about climate change?

As a Graduate Student Iwas a skeptic….

slide4

What Determines BiologicalCommunity Distribution?

  • Average Temperature.
  • Average Precipitation.

X

so what
So What?

MAJOR BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES OF THE WORLD

Not only do these represent whereour flora and fauna live…but

These control the agricultural and forestry potential of our land

slide6

POTENTIAL FUTURE (TO 2100) OF CURRENT NATURAL COMMUNITES

Business as usual CO2 850 ppm

Some redress: CO2 550 ppm

Within 500km

Blue Probability = 1; Red Probability = -1

Williams & Jackson 2007: http://www.frontiersinecology.org/paleoecology/williams.pdf

slide7

CRITICAL VALUES

“What have futuregenerations ever donefor me?”

Intergenerational Justice

Stewardship

Newer carbon-free technologiescannot compete with freewaste allowance

Externalizing waste allowspollution of our air –

97% of Climate

Scientists agree –

The planet is warming

Free?

Level Economic Playing Field

Human caused gas emissions

are contributing

We all pay the price.

slide8

Should we manage our resources such that we meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs?

or should we sacrifice the future environment for politics and short term economic profit?

“Sustainable Economic Development”

‘Agenda 21’

a medical issue diagnosis and response

Risk Assessment….A Personal Example

100

Prob. Of

Survival

50

IV

40

III

II

30

1995AML: Notreatment

20

I

10

12

NOW

2

24

TIME IN MONTHS

A Medical Issue:Diagnosis and Response

My Choices:

1 – Accept the diagnosis

Conclude I have cancer, and undergo treatment.

But they could be wrong…maybe I don’t have cancer.

2- Deny the diagnosis

Conclude I’m fine, and decline treatment.

But I could be wrong…maybe I do have cancer.

What is the Prudent Response?

Partisan??

global temperatures 1880 2013 cf 1951 1980
Global Temperatures 1880 – 2013cf 1951-1980

Since early 1970s - 1.3⁰F

Since 1880s - app. 2.0⁰F

Since 1750s - >2.0⁰F

1998

1.08

.72

⁰F

.36

0

.36

.72

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif

last 1 000 years
Last 1,000 Years

Only if we ignorerecent data can weargue it’s now nowarmer than the MWP

Medieval

Warm period

950 - 1250

LittleIce Age

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia; 2013 Kaufmann et al. Nature Geoscience 6: 339 – 346 2013

science proof certainty
Science, Proof, & Certainty
  • Science seeks explanations for phenomena evident in the world / universe around us, but
  • Proof (i.e. certainty) does not exist in science
  • Science operates by testing competing hypotheses,
  • Confidence in an idea grows only as

- competing hypotheses are falsified / excluded, and

    • evidence accumulates in support of that hypothesis which remains unfalsified….
  • By looking at past climate fluctuations and their causes we can explore competing hypotheses….
slide13

Is a changing climate unusual?

20,000 - 18,000

Over the last2 millions years4 glaciations

have occurred

170,000 - 120,000

480,000 - 230,000

800,000 - 600,000

more distant historical patterns in temperature
More Distant Historical Patterns in Temperature

It has been hotter – but not for 2 million years

Note: axis is not arithmetic

http://www.chatham.edu/pti/Pgh_Env_History/Real01.htm

Yes, it’s been hotter on the planet, but how relevant to us is > 2 million YA?

what might have caused historic climate changes
What Might Have Caused Historic Climate Changes?

These are the competing Hypotheses

1 –The Milankovitch Cycle

2 – Solar Radiation Patterns – reasonable since 99.998% of Earth’s Energy comes from the sun

3 – Volcanoes emitting multiple materials

4 – ENSO / PDO /AMO regional oscillations

5 – The Current Greenhouse Gas Understanding

1 – Milankovitch

milankovitch cycle
MilankovitchCycle

A 100,000 year temperature cycle results from 3 component cycles:

  • I: 105,000 yr. cycle in shape of Earth’s orbitof sun-Eccentricity

http://deschutes.gso.uri.edu/~rutherfo/milankovitch.gif

milankovitch cycle1
MilankovitchCycle
  • II: 41,000 yr. cycle in the tilt (obliquity of ecliptic) of Earth 21.1o-24.5o around 23.5o.

http://deschutes.gso.uri.edu/~rutherfo/milankovitch.gif

milankovitch cycle2
MilankovitchCycle
  • III: 21,000 cyclic advance [Precession] of the equinoxes – date when sun is over equator…. Jan  Feb  March….. January.

http://deschutes.gso.uri.edu/~rutherfo/milankovitch.gif

milankovitch cycle3
MilankovitchCycle
  • http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/samson/climate_patterns/

Consequence:

  • Inconsequential change in total solar radiation – but
  • A cycle in severity of seasons
  • From warm summers/cold winters to cool summers/mild winters
  • Glaciation occurs when summer is not warm enough to melt winter snows.
slide20

Coincidence in the three Milankovitch cycles

WIS

ILL

  • When all the Milankovitch cycles (alone) are taken into account, the present trend should be towards a cooler climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with extended glaciation.

Warming

Cooling

Warming

Cooling

Warming

Cooling

Berger & Loutre 1991 – Available: http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame/student/howard2/theory.htm

solar activity
Solar Activity

http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm

400 years of sun spot activity
400 Years of Sun Spot Activity

The more sunspots, the greater the solar radiation

Running Mean

Little Ice Age 1550 – 18401 – 2°C colder caused famines

Few sunspots

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

slide23

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg

It certainly seems likely that solar patterns have influenced global climate recently….

Sun Spots Further Back In Time

Medieval Warm

Period

total solar irradiance since 1600 note there has been a rise but not recently
Total Solar Irradiance since 1600(NOTE: there has been a rise – but not recently)

3/1365 =

0.22%

Note: App 11 yr cycle

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf

slide25

Curiously, the recent solar lull, longer and deeper than usual, is now ending:

0.1%

Note: solar irradiance recently was lower

than previously detected….

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/719139main_2012_GISTEMP_summary.pdf

slide26

Galactic Cosmic Ray Influence

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6290228.stm

main outputs
Main Outputs
  • Water Vapor – positive climate impact
  • Carbon dioxide – positive climate impact
  • Ash – negative climate impact
  • Sulfur gases – aerosols negative impact

But….

  • Water vapor is short-lived in atmosphere
  • Land and sea volcanoes annually emit 200 million tons of CO2
  • Human activity annually emits 24 billion tons of CO2
  • Volcanoes < 1% human activity
regional climatic oscillations
Regional Climatic Oscillations
  • El Niño Southern Oscillation ENSO
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation PDO
  • Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation AMO
slide30

El Niño events alternate with La Niña

El Niño

La Niña

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

pacific decadal oscillation
Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Typical wintertime Sea Surface Temperature (colors)

Sea Level Pressure (contours) and surface windstress (arrows)

Anomaly patterns during warm and cool phases of the PDO

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

Cause unknown: events persist for 10 – 40 years,

Primarily affect North Pacific / North America

comparing pdo and global patterns
Comparing PDO and Global Patterns

http://www.skepticalscience.com/is-pacific-decadal-oscillation-the-smoking-gun.html

atlantic multi decadal oscillation
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-3-33.html

my interpretation of the evidence regarding the competing hypotheses for current climatic variation
My interpretation of the evidence regarding the competing hypotheses for current climatic variation?
  • Astronomic Patterns: the Milankovitch Cycle
  • Fluctuations in Solar / Cosmic Radiation
  • Volcanic Activity
  • ENSO, PDO & AMO
  • Variation in Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases
slide35

The Greenhouse Gas Explanation

IT ALL STARTS WITH INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION

High energyshortwavelengths

Visible mediumwavelengths

Heat longwavelengths

 MicrowavesTV/Radio FM-AM

slide36

Hot bodies

emit radiation

in shorter wavelength form =

Visible and UV Light Energy

Cooler bodies

emit radiation

in longer wavelength form

= Heat Energy

What Happens to Incoming Radiation?

Heat wavelengths

TRANSFORMATION

slide37

The Planetary

Greenhouse Effect

slide38

The Atmospheric “GreenhouseEffect"

Transformed toInfra-red = heat.

Then what?

Remainder escapesinto space

some re-radiated out

Some infra-red is absorbed by

atmospheric gases

Incoming Visible light

WARNING:

Not drawn to scale

slide39

Some infra-red is absorbed by

atmospheric gases

NOTE: Absorbency is in lower atmosphere – which is where we live

slide40

Less escapesinto space

If atmospheric gas density increases, more heat is retained by this ‘thermalblanket’

Warming

Surface - LowerAtmosphere

slide41

As more heat is retained,

less escapes into space

Atmospheric Layers?

Warming

Warming

Cooling

What proportion of this

Heat Energy is absorbed

by our atmosphere (as opposed

to going elsewhere)?

Surface - LowerAtmosphere

Troposhere to app. 14 km.

14km Stratosphere 50 km

components of a heating planet
Components of a Heating Planet

http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=12

slide43

Current average global temp is app 15oC or 59oF

Without this thermal blanket Earth would be 200Cto 300C (350F – 550F) cooler, probably too cold to support life – certainly as we know it.

Warming

Warming

Cooling

Surface - LowerAtmosphere

Troposhere to app. 14 km.

14km Stratosphere 50 km

slide44

There’s nothing new under the sun….

1824 Joseph Fourier: Visible radiation  earth’s surface  infra-red radiation  trapped in atmosphere (thermal blanket)

1861 John Tyndall: Identified heat trapping gases: water vapor, carbon dioxide

So, what are these ‘greenhouse gases?’ -

  • 1896 Svante Arrhenius: industrial revolution  inc. carbon dioxide  temp effects
    • Arrhenius did NOT win a Nobel Prize….for this

- Not a new or novel idea

1930s/1940s E.O. Hulburt; Gary Stewart Callendar

1960 Charles David Keeling: Monitored carbon dioxide, published first ‘Keeling’ curve.

1970  George Benton PNAS

1980s  James Hansen of NASA GISS

the main greenhouse gases gwp global warming potential
The Main Greenhouse GasesGWP = Global Warming Potential

Carbon dioxide

Methane

100 year GWP = 1

100 year GWP = 25

CFC / HCFC

Longevity ≈ centuries

Longevity ≈ decade

100 year GWP = 15,000

Longevity ≈ 250 years

Nitrous oxide

Longevity ≈ 10 Days

100 year GWP = 298

Water

Dihydrogen monoxide

Longevity ≈ century

slide46

Positive and Negative AtmosphericRadiative Forcing Components

Level ofScientificUnderstanding

CO2

CH4

N2O

Reflectance

High  coolingLow  warming

Dust and Droplets

Aviationcontrails

slight +

IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report; Fig 2-4

keeling curve with annual pattern
Keeling Curve with annual pattern

Now 400 ppm

Inc. by76 ppmsince

1958/60 =24%

316ppm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve

since 1750

Now 400 ppm

Since 1750?

The Keeling Curve

Not been this high since Pliocene 3.2 – 5 m YA

Inc. by

120 ppmsince

1750 = 43%

1750

http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm

slide49

The CO2 / Temp Pattern

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/samson/climate_patterns/

400 000 years of co 2 and last 1000 years ice core and modern data
400,000 years of CO2 and last 1000 yearsIce Core and Modern Data

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf

vostok antarctic ice core data
Vostok (Antarctic Ice Core) Data

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/page4.php

my interpretation of the evidence regarding the competing hypotheses for current climatic variation1
My interpretation of the evidence regarding the competing hypotheses for current climatic variation?
  • Astronomic Patterns: the Milankovitch Cycle
  • Fluctuations in Solar / Cosmic Radiation
  • Volcanic Activity
  • ENSO, PDO & AMO
  • Variation in Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases
scenarios in ipcc ar4 2007
Scenarios in IPCC AR4 2007

A1: rapid economic growth; pop. peak mid-century; rapid introduction of efficient technologies.

A1F Fossil fuel intensive, A1T Non fossil-fuel intensive, A1B Balanced

A2: heterogeneous world; high pop growth; slow economic growth; slow technological change; BAU.

B1: as A1 in population but more rapid economic change to service/information economy;

B2: intermediate pop growth; local economic & social solutions; environmental sustainability focus.

carbon dioxide past and future
Carbon Dioxide Past and Future

There are severalscenarios.

Assuming the greenhouse gas –warming relationship,

without adequate responsethe future could be bleak….

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/past_and_future_CO2_concentrations

slide56

GA. Meehl, WM., Washington, CM. Ammann, JM. Arblaster, TML Wigley and C. Tebaldi 2004 Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate, J. American Meteorological Society 17: 3721-3727

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming

slide57

GCM Global Projections using 1901-1950 as baseline.

58 simulations using 14 GCMs incorporating natural and human induced influences.

19 simulations using 5 models with natural influences only.

Black – ActualRed - Modeled

Black – ActualBlue - Modeled

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-9-5.html

slide58

Future Temperature Range

Unmanageable

14.4

10.8

7.2

3.6

Unavoidable

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html#Temperature

slide59

Future Temperature Range (Beyond 2100)

21.6⁰F

18.0⁰F

14.4⁰F

RepresentativeCarbon Pathways

10.8⁰F

7.2⁰F

3.6⁰F

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter12.pdf

risk assessment
Risk Assessment

Risk is not a function of Probability

Risk is a function of Probability * Severity

What is Prudent?

What is the worst that can happen if we consider AGW real - and act?

What is the worst that can happen if we consider AGW false - and don’t act?

slide61

http://socan.info

Co-Facilitators:

Alan Journet alanjournet@gmail.com

Kathy Conway kathleendconway@gmail.com

MEETINGS: Last Tuesday of the month Special Topic Presentation 6:00 – 6:30 pm SOCAN Positions

General Meeting: 6:30 – 8:00 pm

Medford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.

climate sensitivity to co 2
Climate Sensitivity to CO2?

Method 1 – Modelling response to double the CO2 on basis of properties of carbon dioxide, its concentration, and atmospheric behavior

Range from average of 1.65⁰C (2.97⁰F) to 5.2⁰C (9.36⁰F)

https://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-sensitivity.htm

climate sensitivity to co 21
Climate Sensitivity to CO2?

Method 2 – Historic relationships

Implication of doubling CO2 fromhistoric 275 / 280 ppm:

From close to 2⁰C (3.6⁰F) – 4.5⁰C (8.1⁰F)

Probably around 3⁰C (4.5⁰F) – biologically disastrous

https://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-sensitivity.htm

what if less than this
What if less than this?

A minority claim the climate is less sensitive than we think, the implication being we don’t need to do anything much about it.

Others suggest that because we can't tell for sure, we should wait and see.

Intergenerational Justice – what is prudent?

http www skepticalscience com lessons from past climate predictions don easterbrook html
http://www.skepticalscience.com/lessons-from-past-climate-predictions-don-easterbrook.htmlhttp://www.skepticalscience.com/lessons-from-past-climate-predictions-don-easterbrook.html

There are a few individuals who reject the majority view that human activities especially Greenhouse Gases are having a profound impact and will continue to do so into the future….

Construct Models w/o GHG

http://www.globalresearch.ca/global-cooling-is-here/10783 (2014)

http www skepticalscience com graphics php g 23
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=23

Comparing those projections with actual data we get the following….

1945-1977 Cooling

1880-1915 Cooling

http www skepticalscience com don easterbrook heartland distortion of reality html
http://www.skepticalscience.com/don-easterbrook-heartland-distortion-of-reality.htmlhttp://www.skepticalscience.com/don-easterbrook-heartland-distortion-of-reality.html

Now, Compare These Projections with the Actual Data and the IPCC Projections

IPCC Projections

1945-1977 Cooling

1880-1915 Cooling