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University Entrance Rates of Ontario Residents: Regional and Gender Analysis

University Entrance Rates of Ontario Residents: Regional and Gender Analysis. CUPA Conference (University of Guelph) June 24, 2009 Ian Calvert, Carleton University Dave Smith, York University. Outline. Background and objective Methodology Ontario picture 1989 to 2007

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University Entrance Rates of Ontario Residents: Regional and Gender Analysis

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  1. University Entrance Ratesof Ontario Residents:Regional and Gender Analysis CUPA Conference (University of Guelph) June 24, 2009 Ian Calvert, Carleton University Dave Smith, York University

  2. Outline • Background and objective • Methodology • Ontario picture 1989 to 2007 • Regional and gender analysis 1989 to 2007 • Population projections to 2021 • New-entrant scenarios to 2021 • Discussion • References

  3. Background and Objective • CESPA* has developed a “flow-through” model as a tool to estimate future undergraduate enrolment at Ontario universities, and associated grant-funding implications • This model relies on estimates of new, full-time entrants into first year; upper-year enrolments are then projected, as well as Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs) and Basic Income Units (BIUs) • Objective of this analysis: to estimate new, first-year, full-time entrants by: • Looking at regional population projections, and • Rates at which young adults from those regions enroll * CUPA Committee on Enrolment Statistics, Projections, and Analysis

  4. Methodology • Ontario population data and projections: • Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance • Projections based on 2001 census* • Ontario enrolment data: • Source: Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities • First-year, first-time (at institution), full-time enrolment • Domestic and International students • Direct-entry programs only • Focus on entrants aged 18 to 20 (direct-entry programs) • “Entrance rate” = (new, FT, 1st-year) / (18-20 population) * New projections, based on 2006 census, are anticipated this fall.

  5. Regional Groupings Southwest: • BRUCE • ELGIN • ESSEX • GREY • HURON • KENT • LAMBTON • MIDDLESEX • OXFORD • PERTH Central: • BRANT • DUFFERIN • HALDIMAND-NORFOLK • HALIBURTON • HAMILTON • MUSKOKA • NIAGARA • NORTHUMBERLAND • PETERBOROUGH & VICTORIA • SIMCOE • WATERLOO • WELLINGTON

  6. Regional Groupings Toronto GTA excluding Toronto: • DURHAM • HALTON • PEEL • YORK East: • FRONTENAC • HASTINGS • LANARK • LEEDS & GRENVILLE • LENNOX & ADDINGTON • OTTAWA • PRESCOTT & RUSSELL • PRINCE EDWARD • RENFREW • STORMONT, DUNDAS & GLENGARRY

  7. Regional Groupings North: • ALGOMA • COCHRANE • GREATER SUDBURY • KENORA • MANITOULIN • NIPISSING • PARRY SOUND • RAINY RIVER • SUDBURY • THUNDER BAY • TIMISKAMING

  8. Ontario Regional Origin of First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18-20 2007 1989 Source: MTCU; first-time students (at institution) only CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

  9. Enrolment Scenarios • Scenario 1: constant (i.e., entrance rates stay at 2007 levels) • Scenario 2: rates continue trend of past three years • Scenario 3: rates continue trend of past five years* • Scenario 4: rates continue trend of past ten years* • Scenario 5: rates continue trend of all years (since 1989)* • For each scenario, two variations: • Provincial entrance rate • Region/gender entrance rates * Rates for years 2002 to 2004 have been excluded because of the double cohort

  10. Discussion Points • What if we close the gender gap? • Constant 2007 female entrance rates applied to males, by region  +16%*enrolment in 2021 • What if we close the regional gap? • Constant 2007 male/female GTA entrance rates applied to all regions  +20% enrolment in 2021 • What if we close the gender and regional gaps? • Constant 2007 GTAfemale entrance rates  +35% enrolment in 2021 • What other scenarios should we consider? * relative to Fall 2007 enrolment

  11. … a Final Comment • Need to differentiate where students come from, and where students enroll • All Ontario institutions serve students from the GTA • OCAD, Ryerson, Toronto, York and UOIT account for 52% of entrants from the GTA

  12. References • More information on Ontario demographics is available at: http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/demographics/ • Statistics Canada enrolment projections are available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/81-595-m/81-595-m2007058-eng.htm • The Council of Ontario Universities has a wide variety of publications available at: http://www.cou.on.ca/_bin/publications/onlinePublications.cfm • The Association of Universities and Colleges analysis of trends is available at: http://www.aucc.ca/policy/research/index_e.html

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