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Wheat

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Wheat

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  1. Wheat

  2. Kim’s web sitefor wheat market information agecon.okstate.edu/anderson

  3. KCBT Dec price

  4. Ending Stocks 5-year average 2006/07 2007/08 Million Bushels U.S. 520 456 362 World 5,320 4,589 4,128

  5. Argentina & Australia 2006/07 2007/08 5-yr avg. Million Bushels Argentina 559 514 532 Australia 367 772 692

  6. Corn

  7. Soybeans

  8. HRW wheat production area

  9. Corn

  10. SRW wheat production area

  11. Soybeans

  12. OtherSpringWheatexcl. Durham

  13. Durum

  14. WhiteWinterWheat

  15. KCBT July ‘08 $5.95 -0.40 $5.55

  16. Production 5-year avg. ‘07 Guess million bushels U.S. 2,106 2,1142,250 2,005 22,800 World 21,720 22,428 22.9 21.9 21.7

  17. Beginning stocks Production Supply, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. farm price U.S. Wheat Supply and Use USDA 07/08 Kim’s 08/09 million bushels 456 2,114 2,655 1,075 2,293 362 $5.40 370 2,250 2,720 1,025 2,225 495 $4.60

  18. Beginning stocks Production Supply, Total Use, Total Ending Stocks World Wheat Supply and Use USDA 07/08 Kim’s 08/09 million bushels 4.59 22.43 27.02 22.80 4.22 4.13 22.80 26.93 22.50 4.43

  19. KCBT July ‘07 Freeze Rain $4.70 -.40 $4.30 CN08 ~3.92 + $0.40 = $4.32

  20. Important points • U.S. and world wheat stocks remain tight • KCBT & Basis imply higher Nov ’07 prices • Going into harvest, prices will be relatively high • Market ~$5.60 • Kim ~$4.80 • Corn ~$4.30