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Wheat Outlook

Wheat Outlook

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Wheat Outlook

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  1. Wheat Outlook William I. Tierney, Jr. PhD Chief Economist AgResource Company, Chicago IL. OSU Extension Webinar April 15, 2013

  2. US Wheat Supply & Demand

  3. U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Conditions: 2nd Week of April

  4. US Drought Monitor – 2013 vs2012 Apr 10, 2012 Apr 09, 2013 Drought Severity D0 - Abnormally Dry D1 - Drought - Moderate D2 - Drought - Severe D3 - Drought - Extreme D4 - Drought - Exceptional

  5. Global Wheat’s Weather Problems Also Include Too Much Rain “The Summer That Never Was in UK” Will Boost UK’s Imports. Continued Rains Will Reduce 2013 Area Seeded by 12-15%. 14 Mln Ha Affected by Flooding in Arg’s Buenos Aires and Santa Cruz. How Much Much Damage Did Wheat Crop Suffer?

  6. Crops in Canada & U.S. N. Plains Will be Planted Late Resulting in Lost Acres and Reduced Yields Approximate crop yield decline each day Alberta crops’ seeding date is delayed after May 1 Crop% Yield decline/day Barley - grain 1.3 Barley - silage 1.0 Triticale - grain 0.8 Triticale - silage 1.1 Wheat – HRS 0.8 Wheat - durum 1.3 Canola 1.7 Flax 0.6

  7. 2013 World Wheat Crop to be 2nd Largest on Record.

  8. Big Crop Compensates for Small Beginning Stocks.

  9. Per Capita Use Has Been Steady Thanks, In Part, to EU Biofuels Use.

  10. More Wheat Fed Next Year But Trade in “Feed Wheat” Will Be Down.

  11. No Growth in World Wheat Trade

  12. Despite Near-Record Crop, Global Stocks/Use Will Slip in 2013/14.

  13. US SRW Now World’s Cheapest Wheat. But Black Sea “New Crop Quotes” Less Than US.

  14. India Has More Wheat to Export But Will They Sell At Prices Below The Govt’s Support Price?

  15. Wheat Prices Seem to be a Function of Exporters’ Stocks/Use and Corn Price

  16. Lowest World Corn Stock/Use Since 1974

  17. Chicago Wheat Nearing Largest Net Short since 2006

  18. A Weekly Close Above The Downtrend Line Signals to Hold Off on Further Sales.

  19. Downside Risk is $6.00/Bu Basis the “Nearby” KCBT Futures History

  20. $.40/Bu “Carry” from Jul ‘13 to Mar ‘14 ($.05/Bu/Month). Farmers With On-Farm Storage May Want to Hedge in KWH14. KC HRW 13% is 40-50 cents/bu > HRW Ord. Problems with N. American Spring Wheat crop could push up protein premiums.

  21. Why Are Wheat End Users (Traders) So Calm?