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Wheat PowerPoint Presentation

Wheat

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Wheat

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  1. Wheat

  2. Kim’s web sitefor wheat market information agecon.okstate.edu/anderson

  3. The price of wheat on June 20, 2007 KWN7 $4.60 W7 $4.41 HRW basis -$0.30 $4.30 $4.00 Are there any questions?

  4. Talking Points Price & weather Wheat Stocks Argentina & Australia Plantings  ’07 production Use – domestic, exports & world Price

  5. Talking Points Price

  6. KCBT nearby price 1.8 .429 1.9 .491

  7. CBT nearby price 1.8 .429 1.9 .491

  8. KCBT Dec price

  9. CBT Dec price

  10. Talking Points Price Wheat Stocks

  11. Ending Stocks 10-year average ‘06 Std. Million Bushels U.S. 686 418 183 585 World 6,540 4,382 1,000 5.88

  12. Talking Points Price Wheat stocks Argentina & Australia

  13. Australia 404 900 791 805 790 717 Argentina & Australia 2006/07 2005/06 5-yr avg. Million Bushels Argentina 486 478 520 538

  14. KCBT Dec price

  15. Talking Points Price Wheat stocks Argentina & Australia Plantings & ’07 production

  16. Winter 43.4 40.6 2.4 43.1 + 6.1% 42.3 Other Spr 15.3 14.9 1.5 15.3 + 2.7% 14.5 Total 61.8 57.3 3.8 60.2 + 5.1% 59.4 Seedings Class 10-year avg. ‘06 Std. Guess million acres HRW 31.0 29.7 1.5 31.5 + 6.0% SRW 8.5 7.4 1.2 7.9 + 6.5%

  17. HRW wheat production area

  18. SRW wheat production area

  19. Other Spring Wheat

  20. Yield Class 10-year avg. ‘06 Std. Guess bushel/acre HRW 37.6 31.4 4.3 SRW 55.5 62.2 4.1 Winter 44.2 41.7 2.6 43 Other Spr 35.5 33.2 4.1 Total 41.1 38.7 2.6 41.2 40.6

  21. HRW 908 682 170 827 SRW 401 390 309 354 Other Spr. 511 432 66 492 White 284 254 39 283 Durham 94 53 17 84 Total 2,154 1,812 258 2,100 2,005 Production Class 10-year avg. ‘06 Std. Guess million bushels 2.34 2.16 2.10

  22. U.S. 2,154 1,812 258 2,100 2,005 2.16 2.10 World 21,690 21,500 840 22,700 23.1 22.7 21.7 Production 10-year avg. ‘06 Std. Guess million bushels

  23. Talking Points Price Wheat stocks Argentina & Australia Plantings Use – domestic & export

  24. U.S. use 10-year average Use ‘06 Std. Guess Million Bushels Export 1,028 925 80 925 Domestic 1,240 1,145 84 1,150 1,165 TotalUse 2,268 2,070 134 2,075 2,173

  25. 21,705 22,626 565 22,113 World use 10-year average ‘06 Std. Guess Million Bushels 22,500

  26. Ending Stocks 10-year average ‘06 Std. Guess Million Bushels U.S. 685 418 183 543 584 World 6,530 4,382 1,000 4,582 5.87

  27. Talking Points Price Wheat Stocks Argentina & Australia Plantings Use – Domestic & Exports Price

  28. Beginning stocks Production Supply, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. farm price U.S. Wheat Supply and Use USDA 06/07 USDA 05/06 Million Bushels 571 1,812 2,488 925 2,080 418 $4.35 540 2,105 2,727 1,009 2,155 571 $3.42 1.19 bb

  29. Beginning stocks Production Supply, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. farm price U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Kim’s 07/08 USDA 06/07 Million Bushels 571 1,812 2,488 925 2,070 418 $4.35 418 2,100 2,618 925 2,075 543

  30. U.S. ending stocks & price $4.30 $3.40 Av ES 0.63 Av Price $3.32 0.540 0.440

  31. U.S. ending stocks & price $4.35 $4.30 $3.40 Av ES 0.63 Av $ $3.32 0.540 0.440 0.418

  32. Beginning stocks Production Supply, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. farm price U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Million Bushels Kim’s 07/08 USDA 06/07 418 2,100 2,618 925 2,075 543 $3.60 571 1,812 2,488 925 2,070 418 $4.35 1.19 bb

  33. Important points • U.S. and world wheat stocks remain tight • 540 m.b. ending stocks  $3.40 • 430 m.b. ending stocks  $4.30 • Going into harvest, prices will be relatively high • Foreign crop determine ’07/08 mkting yr trend • Ethanol production changing market