China’s Scientific Rise: Extent, and Limits

1. China’s Scientific Rise: Extent, and Limits Anthony Welch University of Sydney

2. The Rise and Rise of China • When speaking of China’s rise, most attention is conventionally given to economics. • While dramatic, (close to 10% annual growth in GDP, since 1990), it is by no means the only field of substantial growth and achievement. • In education, growth has been similarly spectacular, with around 30m students now enrolled in its Higher Education system. • Equally striking is the rise in China’s scientific infrastructure and output.

3. Chinese Science: a History • Centuries ago, China’s science and technology led the world. • Major achievements in science, technology, mathematics, and astronomy, including abacus, first flying machines/kites,and ‘shadow clock’. • Traditional Chinese medicine, acupuncture and herbal medicine further areas of achievement. • Four Great Inventions: (四大发明) Printing, Compass, Papermaking, Gunpowder. • Tang Dynasty (618 - 906 AD) an era of particular innovation.

4. Chinese Rocket technology

5. Scientific Stagnation? • Jesuits introduced Western science to China in late Ming Dynasty (16th and 17th. C), (and Matteo Ricci translated Confucius into Latin). But did China experience a scientific revolution, from the 17th C., like the West? • Joseph Needham argued that cultural factors, incl. Taoism, stunted the growth of a sci. revolution. JohnFairbank argued that political constraints were important inhibitors. Others have pointed to econ. factors, China’s hatred of the West, and oscillation between modernism and conservatism. ZhongxueWeiti, XixueWeiyong ? • But Nathan Sivin has argued that China had its own scientific Revolution of the 17th. C., which further research is needed to explain.

6. Post-Revolutionary Science • After the Chinese Revolution (1949), science was re-organised on Soviet lines – research was largely confined to Academies, rather than universities. (These Academies are still powerhouses of Chinese science/technology) • From 1975, Science and Technology became one of the Four Modernizations (Agric.; Industry; Defense; Sci/Tech), and its speedy growth and development were deemed essential to national econ. development by Deng, Xiaoping, whose ‘Reform and Opening’ from the late 1970s laid the foundations for China’s headlong dash for development and modernisation. • This included satellite technology (China became the 3rd country to send astronauts into space in 2003), high-yield hybrid rice, superconductivity, etc.

7. Charting the Change (1) • In 1978, at the beginning of Reform and Opening era, China was a scientific minnow. • By2008, 218 countriesproduced over 1.5 million research papers: the UK 98,000, China 163,000, and the USA 320,000 (Royal Society 2011). China now 2nd largest, after USA. • But relativities are just as important: China’s share of total publications rose from 4% (1999-2003) to 10% (2004-8). Over the same period, Russia’s proportion fell from 4% to 3%, US from 26% to 21%, Japan from 8% to 6%, Germany 7% to 6%.

8. China’s Advantage: Huge Knowledge Diaspora • From 1978 to 2007, well over 1 million students went abroad for study purposes. • Of these some 300, 000 have returned; return rates increasing, as opportunities at home increase, (and decrease in US, EU, UK). GFC. • As well, numerous Overseas Talent Schemes aim to recruit foreign talent (mainly HuaQiao) • Domestic policies now more flexible: from HuiguoFuwuto WeiguoFuwu. For HaiGui, assistance with children’s schooling, and Hukou, higher salaries, research support • Of those who remain abroad, overwhelming proportion keen to support China’s development (teach short courses, cooperative research, supervise Ph. D. students). • Chinese identity forms a bond for effective cooperation. Most domestic scientists prefer to work with HuaQiaopartners, rather than non-Chinese – but not all. Large majority of recruits are Chinese.

9. Chinese Students Abroad 1997-2007

10. Chinese Returnees 1997-2007

11. Charting the Change (2) • China’s rise especiallystriking, esp. over past decade or more. • Heavy increase in R&D investment: by 20% per year since 1999. Now US$100 billion+ a year (or 1.44% of GDP in 2007). • Expressed goalto invest 2.5% of GDP in R&D by 2020. • China produces huge numbers of science and engineering graduates (1.5 million in 2006). • Annual increase of publications 18% p.a 1996-2008 (cf. US 1%, UK 2.5%, Australia 5.5%, Russia 0.4%. Annual growth in % of GDP invested in R&D: China 8.3%, Sth. Korea 4.1%, Russia 1.5%, UK -0.2%, USA 0.5%.

12. All that Glisters..? (1) • Although citations are an imperfect measure (lagging + self-citation + negative citations), China’s rise less spectacular than for publications: 1999-2003 2%; 2004-2008 4%. (US fell from 36% to 30%; Germany 8% to 7%; Japan 7% to 5%. Patents, too. Is quantitative growth more evident than qualitative? • As well, and notwithstanding dramatic growth, China still lacks sufficient high-level science and technology personnel (OECD 2008). This forms a bottleneck for further development. • Evidence suggests that, notwithstanding the above, leading dept’s at e.g. Beida & Tsinghua continue to haemorhage talent abroad. The very best still don’t return? • Greater emphasis on strategic, than basic research hinders innovation. • Strong stratification in H/Ed. - are only the top layer of HEIs really strong, & worthwhile for int’l collaboration? • Corruption a signif. issue in China, incl in H/Ed. (misspent research funds, guanxi, plagiarism, intl. collaboration). • Materialism now more prominent: interest in buying/furnishing apartment(s) at times outweighs research priorities?

13. All that Glisters .. (2) • Recent Reports indicate the following constraints: • public support system for R&D, and some arrangements of the national innovation system (NIS) don’t always lead to results. • NIS not always well integrated: competition between Ministries, agencies, and provinces  ‘islands of innovation’ • Guanxi listed by numbers of HuaQiao researchers as barrier to return. Is NIS too influenced by guanxi cf. merit? • In a Confucian heritage culture, rank/age can also override merit, at times. • HuaQiao reports that follow up, after initial enthusiasm, absent at times. Weaknesses of leadership? • Admin interference limits freedom of research ,and hence innovation.

14. Conclusion • China’s scientific rise is impressive, and is set to continue. • China’s determination to become an ‘innovation society’ has led to major boost in R&D support, and scientific output. • China’s huge knowledge diaspora constitutes a key advantage and are keen to support. • Quantative growth more evident than qualitative. • Admin. interference in research; corruption; materialism; and guanxi limit the capacity for full utilisation of these advantages.

15. References • Yang and Welch (2012) ‘A world-class University in China? The case of Tsinghua’ Higher Education 63, 645-666. • UNESCO Science Report 2010. • Royal Society (2011) Knowledge, Networks and Nations. • OECD (2008) Review of National Innovation Policy: China.