Climate Change Research at the Regional Level: California

1. Climate Change Research at the Regional Level: California Guido Franco Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program California Energy Commission February 22, 2010

2. Outline • Brief history of regional climate change research in California • Recent Impact Assessments • Vulnerability/Adaptation Study • CalAdapt

3. Brief history of regional climate change research in California

4. Climate Change Science Informing Policy in CA • The Energy Commission led the preparation of the first CA Assessment in 1988 (AB 4420) • Studies at the national and international levels have been extremely useful • Federal agencies (USGCRP) are designing a new National Assessment

5. Climate Change Research at the Energy Commission • PIER was created in the late 1990s and started working in earnest on climate change in 2001 (~$80 million/yr) • First PIER Assessment released in 2003 • PIER created the California Climate Change Center in 2003 • First state-sponsored CC research initiative in the USA • Designed to complement national/international programs • Annual budget ~ $6 million • Areas of research: 1) climate monitoring, analysis, and modeling; 2) GHG inventory methods; 3) Options to reduce net GHG emissions; and 4) impacts and adaptation studies • More than 200 scientific PIER reports produced so far most of them also published in the peer-reviewed literature

6. Long-term Research Strategy: an example • Probabilistic climate projections for California at adequate temporal and geographical resolutions for research and long-term planning

7. Probabilistic Climate Projections Research groups: Scripps, UC Santa Cruz, LBNL, LLNL, Santa Clara U. Use of statistical and dynamic models Region B: daily and 10 Km x 10 Km

8. Basic Science Projects:Aerosols and Regional Climate (an example) 2004 PIER study by Prof. Mark Jacobson (Stanford) suggested that aerosols are affecting our regional climate and precipitation levels Aerosols may be reducing precipitation by about 12% in the Sierra Nevada Study by Prof. Rosenfeld (Hebrew University) et al. using research aircraft, satellite measurements, and numerical modeling seems to confirm this finding. A study by Prof. Ramanathan (Scripps) suggests that BC from Asia is affecting our climate and may be reducing snow albedo in the Sierra Nevada CalWater project under way Why do we need to focus on this topic? Properly model climate Potential adaptation option Source: Rosenfeld, D., W. L. Woodley, D. Axisa, E. Freud, J. G. Hudson, and A. Givati (2008), Aircraft measurements of the impacts of pollution aerosols on clouds and precipitation over the Sierra Nevada, J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2007JD009544, in press.

9. Development of new tools to properly study impacts and adaptation options SWAN Delf University of Technology CALVIN model Coastal Geomorphic Evolution Model (CGEM) – SWAN provides input data Dynamic ecological model for California INFORM: demonstration project for five major reservoirs in Northern CA -Climate Analyses (e.g,. role of irrigation on climate in the Central Valley) CALVIN

10. Recent Impact Assessments

11. 2006 Impacts Study • Led by PIER • About 17 scientific papers • Special Issue in Climatic Change “Our Changing Climate” contributed to the passage of AB32

12. 2009 Assessment Scenario Subgroup of the CAT Team CalEPA, Resource Agency, ARB, Caltrans, DWR, OPC, Coastal Commission, BCDC, OEHHA, Dept. of Health, Cal Fire, CDFG, CDFA, CEC Core Group Dan Cayan (Co-Chair, Scripps), Michael Hanemann (UC Berkeley), Andrew Altevogt (CalEPA), Alan Sanstad (LBNL), Susanne Moser (Consultant/PIER), Bart Croes (ARB), D. Orrill (Resources), Guido Franco (C0-Chair – CEC) Research Team Scripps/UC San Diego, UC Berkeley, UC Santa Barbara, Stanford, UC Merced, Santa Clara University, USGS, UC Davis, RAND, Pacific Institute, JPL/UCLA, TNC, Oregon State, UC Santa Cruz, LLNL, USFS, LBNL, OEHHA, DWR, ARB, CDF, CEC

13. General Approach Climate and Sea Level Rise Scenarios Physical Impacts Economic Outcomes Statewide Agricultural Production Model (SWAP) Howitt et al. (UC Davis) Lobell and Field (Stanford) Sanstad et al., (LBNL, PPIC, LLLN, CEC) Uncertainty Demographic and Urban Projections

14. 2009 Impact Study (Assessment) 40 different studies on public health, coastal resources, energy, air quality, agriculture, forestry, ecosystems, and extreme events. Common set of climate and SLR scenarios, population and urban projections About 100 scientists involved Final peer-reviewed papers posted SF Bay Wastewater Treatment Plants Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise 2006 Assessment

15. Vulnerability and Adaptation Study

16. 2009 California Adaptation Strategy • Unveiled by the Governor on 12/2/2009 • Requires the preparation of a Vulnerability Assessment for California • Creates a high level Advisory Committee that will report to the Governor late this year • Requires updating and improving the CalAdapt website http://climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/index.html

17. Vulnerability Study • Statewide plus local/regional studies • Physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities • “Coastal” studies • Coastal flood probabilities for five locations in California (Scripps Inst. Of Oceanography) • Using LiDAR (USGS, NOAA), flood probabilities, and wave run-up to estimate impacts in Central CA (UC Berkeley) • Local adaptation studies for Santa Cruz and Ventura (UC Santa Cruz) • Barriers to adaptation (possible)

18. CalAdapt

19. Motivation • Huge amount of scientific information being produced by the PIER Center and others • There is a need to efficiently transfer information/data to local decision makers • 2009 California Adaptation Strategy http://climatechange.ca.gov/visualization/index.html

20. Prototype

21. CalAdapt • PIER and Google.org are collaborating • The “final” version will have three levels of information • Level 1: Educational material for the general public • Level 2: Access of data (moderate sizes) and reports • Level 3: Availability of huge data sets (mostly for researchers and technical staff) or links • Results of the Vulnerability Study will be displayed in CalAdapt

22. Climatic Projections

23. Sea Level Rise Impacts

24. Thanks!Questions?