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Applications and Evaluation of USEPA’s Models-3/CMAQ System: From Regional and Urban Air Pollution to Global Climate Change . Carey Jang, Pat Dolwick, Norm Possiel, Brian Timin, Joe Tikvart U.S. EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

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slide1

Applications and Evaluation of USEPA’s Models-3/CMAQ System: From Regional and Urban Air Pollution to Global Climate Change

Carey Jang, Pat Dolwick, Norm Possiel,

Brian Timin, Joe Tikvart

U.S. EPA

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS)

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina

outline
OUTLINE
  • Overview of USEPA’s “One-Atmosphere” Models-3/CMAQ Modeling System
  • Applications and Evaluation of Models-3 /CMAQ System
  • OAQPS Modeling Initiative on Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Pollutants
third generation air quality models u s epa s models 3 cmaq system
Third-Generation Air Quality Models:U.S.EPA’s Models-3/CMAQ System
  • “Open-Access” Community-Based Models :
    • User-friendly, Modular, Common modeling framework for scientists and policy-makers.
  • Advanced Computer Technologies :
    • High performance hardware and software technologies (Cross-platform, GUI, distributed computing, visualization tools, etc.).
  • “One-Atmosphere” Modeling :
    • Multi-pollutant (Ozone, PM, visibility, acid deposition, air toxics, etc.), Multi-scale.
slide4

“One-Atmosphere” Management and Modeling

Mobile

Sources

Ozone

NOx, VOC,

PM, Toxics

PM

(Cars, trucks, planes,

boats, etc.)

Industrial

Sources

Acid Rain

Chemistry

Meteorology

Visibility

NOx, VOC,

SOx, PM,

Toxics

(Power plants, refineries/

chemical plants, etc.)

Air Toxics

Atmospheric

Deposition

Area

Sources

Climate Change

NOx, VOC,

PM, Toxics

(Residential, farming

commercial, biogenic, etc.)

slide5

NOx-Related Air Quality Issues

(NO3-, NH4+)

PM

(NOx + VOC + hv) -->

Ozone

NOx

Acid Rain

(NO3- deposition)

Visibility

(Fine PM)

Water Quality

(Nitrogen deposition, Lake Acidification)

slide6

SOx-Related Air Quality Issues

(Fine PM)

Visibility

(SO42-, NH4+)

PM

SOx

Acid Rain

(SO42-deposition)

Water Quality

(Lake acidification,

Toxics deposition)

slide7

.OH role in pollutants formation : One-Atmosphere

PM2.5

SOx [or NOx] + NH3 + OH

---> (NH4)2SO4 [or NH4NO3]

VOC + OH --->

Orgainic PM

One Atmosphere

Ozone

Visibility

One Atmosphere

Fine PM

(Nitrate, Sulfate,

Organic PM)

.OH

NOx + VOC + OH

+ hv ---> O3

Acid Rain

Water

Quality

SO2 + OH ---> H2SO4

NOx + SOx + OH

(Lake Acidification,

Eutrophication)

NO2 + OH ---> HNO3

OH <---> Air Toxics

(POM, PAH, Hg(II), etc.)

Air Toxics

slide8

Example of “One-Atmosphere” Modeling

Impact of

50 % NOx

Emission Reduction

on PM 2.5

slide9

Impact of 50% NOx emission reduction

Nitrate PM decrease

Sulfate PM decrease

slide11

Formation of Secondary PM :

Sulfate PM formation:

H2SO4 + 2 NH3 ---> (NH4)2SO4 (s)

Gas Phase:O2,H2O

SO2 + OH ---> H2SO4

Aqueous Phase: H2O

SO2 + H2O2 ---> H2SO4 (Dominate over low pH)

SO2 + O3 ---> H2SO4

Oraginc PM formation:

Gas Phase :

VOC + OH ---> Organic PM(semi-volatile)

(Long-chain VOCs, Aromatics, Biogenic VOCs)

Nitrate PM formation:

HNO3 + NH3 <---> NH4NO3 (aq,s)

Gas Phase :(daytime)

NO2 + OH ---> HNO3

Gas &Aq Phase :(nighttime)

N2O5 + H2O ---> HNO3

slide13

Impact of 50% NOx emission reduction

Nitrate PM decrease

Sulfate PM decrease

third generation air quality models u s epa s models 3 cmaq
Third-Generation Air Quality Models:U.S.EPA’s Models-3/CMAQ
  • “Open-Access” Community-Based Models :
    • User-friendly, Modular, Common modeling framework for scientists and policy-makers.
  • Advanced Computer Technologies :
    • High performance hardware and software technologies (Cross-platform, GUI, distributed computing, visualization tools, etc.).
  • “One-Atmosphere” Modeling :
    • Multi-pollutant (Ozone, PM, visibility, acid deposition, air toxics, etc.), Multi-scale.
slide15

Models-3/CMAQ System Framework

or

Meteorology

Processor

RAMS

or

Emission

Processor

SMOKE

Air Quality

Model

PAVE

slide16

Models-3/CMAQ Demo & Evaluation:

USEPA/ORD

Domain :

Eastern U.S.A.

Grid Resolution :

36-km/12-km/4-km

(Nested Modeling)

Episode :

July 6 - 16, 1995

slide17

O3 Episode in the Northeast U.S. (7/12-15, 1995)

Nested 4 km grid domain (144 x 147 cells)

slide18

Measurement Sites and Terrain Features

(Courtesy of USEPA/ORD, Daewon Byun)

models 3 cmaq applications at epa oaqps
Models-3/CMAQ Applications at EPA/OAQPS
  • Western U.S. Application
    • Episodic O3, July 96, 36/12 km, Evaluation completed
  • Annual Nationwide U.S. Application
    • 1-atmosphere, annual 1996, 36-km, evaluation & diagnostics, on-going annual 2000
  • Eastern U.S. Application
    • 1-atmosphere, July 95, urban applications, 36/12/4-km, emissions control & growth
  • Intercontinental Transport/Air Quality & Climate Change
    • Intercontinental transport and climatic effects of air pollutants
slide21

Models-3/CMAQ Modeling: Domain Maps

36 km eastern US domain

4 km domain

12 km domain

12 km western US ozone domain

36 km western US ozone domain

36 km Annual National US domain

western u s application
Western U.S. Application
  • Objectives :
    • New M3/CMAQ Domain
    • New Episode (July 1996)
  • Model Setup :
    • Episodic O3 modeling
    • Meteorology : MM5
    • Emissions : Tier-2 regridded
    • 36km/12km, 12 layers
    • Compared against UAM-V

177

153

slide23

Modeled

Observed

slide25

Process Analysis : (Los Angeles grid)

Diffusion

Process Contribution to O3

(ppm / hr)

Chem

O3 Conc.

O3 Conc. and Trend

( ppm & ppm / hr)

dO3/dt

Time Step (7/19 - 7/31/96)

annual nationwide u s application
Annual Nationwide U.S. Application
  • Features :
    • Annual CMAQ Run
    • Nationwide CMAQ Domain
  • Model Setup :
    • Annual PM and O3 (1996)
    • 36-km, 8 vertical layers
    • Meteorology : MM5
    • Emissions Processing: SMOKE
    • Model Evaluation: Compared against observed data (IMPROVE & CASTNET) & REMSAD
slide32

NOx Emissions

SO2 Emissions

July 1, 1996

slide33

Models-3/CMAQ Simulation: Annual Average

PM 2.5

Sulfate PM

Organic PM

Nitrate PM

slide34

Models-3/CMAQ : Monthly Average (July)

Sulfate PM

PM 2.5

Organic PM

Nitrate PM

slide35

Models-3/CMAQ : Monthly Average (January)

Sulfate PM

PM 2.5

Organic PM

Nitrate PM

slide41

Formation of Secondary PM :

Sulfate PM formation:

H2SO4 + 2 NH3 ---> (NH4)2SO4 (s)

Gas Phase: O2,H2O

SO2 + OH ---> H2SO4

Aqueous Phase: H2O

SO2 + H2O2 ---> H2SO4 (Dominate over low pH)

SO2 + O3 ---> H2SO4

Oraginc PM formation:

Gas Phase :

VOC + OH ---> Organic PM(semi-volatile)

(Long-chain VOCs, Aromatics, Biogenic VOCs)

Nitrate PM formation:

HNO3 + NH3 <---> NH4NO3 (aq,s)

Gas Phase : (daytime)

NO2 + OH ---> HNO3

Gas &Aq Phase : (nighttime)

N2O5 + H2O ---> HNO3

nh 3 sensitivity modeling
NH3 Sensitivity Modeling

Nitrate PM : (January Avg.)

Base 50% NH3 reduction

0.62

0.70

0.09

0.08

0.53

1.69

1.16

1.24

slide44

National 1996 CMAQ Modeling: O3(July Max in ppb)

56

99

149

62

134

76

132

139

137

107

126

119

131

215

127

144

113

194

slide45

National 1996 CMAQ Modeling: Visibility(January Average in Deciview)

18

16

11

19

14

22

9

26

16

26

24

10

9

26

24

15

22

12

24

14

23

slide46

National 1996 CMAQ Modeling (January average)

Nitrogen Wet Deposition

Sulfur Wet Deposition

air pollution climate change modeling initiative
Air Pollution/Climate Change Modeling Initiative

Background :

  • O3 and PM are not only key air pollutants, but also major climate-forcing substances;
  • Reduction of non-CO2 substances (e.g., O3 and PM, especially black carbon) could be a viable alternative to CO2 reduction to curb global warming. A key strategy suggested was to focus on air pollution to benefit regional and local air quality and global climate simultaneously (Hansen et al.,PNAS, 2000);
  • Black carbon could be the second largest heating component after CO2 contributing to global warming; Control of fossil-fuel black carbon could be the most effective method of slowing glabal warming (Jacobson,Nature, 2001);
slide49

Climatic Effects of Air Pollution

O3 (0.3+0.1)

Black (0.8)

Carbon

(Hansen et al., PNAS, 2001)

slide51

Air Pollution/Climate Change Modeling Initiative

Background (continued):

  • There is also mounting evidence that criteria pollutants originating from some developing countries, especially those in Asia such as China and India, could impact U.S. domestic air quality as well as contribute to the global background of climate-forcing substances. This intercontinental transport issue is expected to worsen with the rapid growth in emissions in these regions.
  • For example, recent modeling studies showed that by 2020 Asian emissions could contribute as much as 2 ~ 6 ppb of O3 in the western U.S., offsetting the Clean Air Act efforts up to 25% in that region (Jacob et al.,Geophys. Res. Letts., 1999) and increase global mean O3 level up to 10% (Collins et al., Atmos. Env., 2000); Asian and Sahara dust could contribute a significant amount of PM in the western and southeastern U.S. (Husar, http://capita.wustl.edu/CAPITA/).
      • !
slide52

Asian Dust Storm Event: April 2001 (NASA/TOMS)

(4/7)

(4/9)

(4/11)

(4/12)

(4/13)

(4/14)

slide53

Transport of CO : March 2000 (NASA/MOPITT)

(3/10)

(3/12)

(3/15)

(3/13)

(Byun and Uno, 2000)

air pollution climate change modeling initiative54
Air Pollution/Climate Change Modeling Initiative

Objectives :

  • To assess available approaches for evaluating the linkage of air pollution to climate change and enhancing modeling capacity within EPA to address these linkage issues.
  • To explore the impacts of intercontinental transport of O3 and PM as well as their implications for US domestic and regional air quality and global climate change
  • To design integrated emissions control strategies to benefit global climate and regional and local air quality simultaneously
air pollution climate change modeling initiative55
Air Pollution/Climate Change Modeling Initiative

Work Plan :

Phase I : Short-Term (~6 months)

  • Establish a better scientific foundation to address the issues related to intercontinental transport and climatic effects of air pollutants by leveraging current studies

1. Global Modeling of O3 and PM

2. Global Radiative Forcing of Aerosols

3. Emission Inventories for Climate-Forcing Pollutants

  • Hold a “Workshop on Air Quality and Climate Change” and establish an expert advisory panel to provide guidance in developing a conceptual model and modeling protocol for Phase II work.
air pollution climate change modeling initiative56
Air Pollution/Climate Change Modeling Initiative

Work Plan : Phase II - Long-Term (~2 years)

Based on Phase I effort, a series of activities will be conducted. These efforts may include, but not limited to:

1. Support continued development of global and regional modeling capabilities for studying “policy-relevant” climatic effects of air pollution and the impacts of intercontinental transport

2. Improve global and regional emission inventories for global and regional modeling of O3 and PM

3. Develop nesting capability between global chemistry/climate models and regional air quality models

4. Simulate hemispheric or regional air quality under a variety of current and future global and regional emission scenarios

5. Evaluate global and regional air quality models using a diverse set of observational data sets, including data from satellites, surface networks, intensive field studies, etc

6. Assessment of the potential radiative forcing and climate benefits resulting from planned and alternative non-CO2 control strategies

slide57

Air Pollution/Climate Change Modeling Initiative

Trans-Pacific O3 simulation

3D Tracer from Gobi Desert

(Byun and Uno, 2000)

(MCNC, 2000)

charge questions
Charge Questions

1. Support continued development of global and regional modeling capabilities for studying “policy-relevant” climatic effects of air pollution and the impacts of intercontinental transport

  • Are there existing global/regional models that can be practically used for the assessment of these two issues simultaneously?
  • If not, which models are better for addressing the climatic effects of air pollution (global climate/chemistry model)? Which are better for addressing the impacts of intercontinental transport (global chemistry/regional air quality models)?

2. Improve global and regional emission inventories for global and regional modeling of O3 and PM

  • Are current global and regional EI sufficient for O3 and PM modeling?
  • If not, what are the weaknesses of exising regional/global EI?
    • O3 and PM precursors (NOx, SOx, VOC, NH3, etc.), black carbon?
    • Geographic distribution (Asia, America, Europe?) and resolution (global, regional, and urban)?
    • Source categories (biomass burning, biogenic emissions, domestic, mobile/point/area sources, etc.)?
    • EI modeling tools to convert EI to data needed for modeling?
charge questions59
Charge Questions

3. Develop nesting capability between global chemistry/climate models and regional air quality models

  • Are the chemical boundary conditions sufficiently represented in regional air quality models?
  • Do global models have sufficient resolution to address regional impacts?
  • Is grid-nesting between global and regional models a good approach to bridge these gaps?

4. Simulate hemispheric or regional air quality under a variety of current and future global and regional emission scenarios

  • What current and future scenarios are to be simulated?
    • Emissions sensitivity scenarios (NOx, SOx, VOC, BC, CH4, etc.)?
    • Source categories sensitivity scenarios (fossil fuel, transportation, biomass burning, etc.)?
    • IPCC & LRTAP emission scenarios?
    • Climate change scenarios? Energy use scenarios?
charge questions60
Charge Questions

5. Evaluate global and regional air quality models using a diverse set of observational data sets

  • What data sets are available for evaluating the model results?
    • Satellite and spacecraft? Surface network? Remote/Sentinel monitoring stations? Special field studies?
    • How to effectively use the observed data to evaluate against the model results?

6. Assessment of the potential radiative forcing and climate benefits resulting from planned and alternative non-CO2 control strategies

  • Can global climate models be used to estimate the climate-forcing effects of air pollutants?
    • How to account for the photochemistry of O3 and PM?
  • Can regional air quality models be used to estimate the climate-forcing effects
    • How to translate changes in pollutant concentrations to climatic-forcing? Can we assume changes in pollutant concentration is linear to changes in radiative properties?
    • How to extrapolate from regional-/hemispheric-scale modeling results to global-scale climate change?