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How do we track our economy ’ s booms and busts?

How do we track our economy ’ s booms and busts?. 21. GDP: A Measure of Total Production and Income. CHAPTER CHECKLIST. When you have completed your study of this chapter, you will be able to.

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How do we track our economy ’ s booms and busts?

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  1. How do we track our economy’s • booms and busts?

  2. 21 GDP: A Measure of Total Production and Income CHAPTER CHECKLIST When you have completed your study of this chapter, you will be able to • 1Define GDP and explain why the value of production, income, and expenditure are the same for an economy. • 2 Describe how economic statisticians measure GDP and distinguish between nominal GDP and real GDP. • 3 Describe the uses of real GDP and explain its limitations as a measure of the standard of living.

  3. 21.1 GDP, INCOME, AND EXPENDITURE • GDP Defined • Gross domestic product or GDP • The market value of all the final goods and services produced within a country in a given time period. • Value Produced • Use market prices to value production.

  4. 21.1 GDP, INCOME, AND EXPENDITURE • What Produced • Final good or service is a good or service that is produced for its final user and not as a component of another good or service. • Intermediate good or service is a good or service that is produced by one firm, bought by another firm, and used as a component of a final good or service. • GDP includes only those items that are traded in markets.

  5. 21.1 GDP, INCOME, AND EXPENDITURE • Where Produced • Within a country • When Produced • During a given time period.

  6. 21.1 GDP, INCOME, AND EXPENDITURE • Circular Flows in the U.S. Economy • Consumption expenditure is the expenditure by households on consumption goods and services. • Investment is the purchase of new capital goods (tools, instruments, machines, buildings, and other constructions) and additions to inventories.

  7. 21.1 GDP, INCOME, AND EXPENDITURE • Government expenditure on goods and servicesis the expenditure by all levels of government on goods and services. • Net exports of goods and servicesis the value of exports of goods and services minus the value of imports of goods and services.

  8. 21.1 GDP, INCOME, AND EXPENDITURE • Exports of goods and servicesare the items that firms in the United States produce and sell to the rest of the world. • Imports of goods and services are the items that households, firms, and governments in the United States buy from the rest of the world.

  9. 21.1 GDP, INCOME, AND EXPENDITURE • Total expenditure is the total amount received by producers of final goods and services. • Consumption expenditure: C • Investment: I • Government expenditure on goods and services: G • Net exports: NX • Total expenditure = C + I + G + NX

  10. 21.1 GDP, INCOME, AND EXPENDITURE • Income • Labor earns wages. • Capital earns interest. • Land earns rent. • Entrepreneurship earns profits. Households receive these incomes.

  11. 21.1 GDP, INCOME, AND EXPENDITURE • Expenditure Equals Income • Because firms pay out everything they receive as incomes to the factors of production, total expenditure equals total income. • That is: • Y = C + I + G + NX • The value of production equals income equals expenditure.

  12. 21.1 GDP, INCOME, AND EXPENDITURE Figure 21.1 shows the circular flow of income and expenditure. The table shows the U.S. data for 2011.

  13. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • The Expenditure Approach • Measures GDP by using data on consumption expenditure, investment, government expenditure on goods and services, and net exports. • Table 21.1 on the next slide shows the calculation for 2011.

  14. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP

  15. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP Expenditures Not in GDP • Used Goods • Expenditure on used goods is not part of GDP because these goods were part of GDP in the period in which they were produced and during which time they were new goods. • Financial Assets • When households buy financial assets such as bonds and stocks, they are making loans, not buying goods and services.

  16. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • The Income Approach • Measures GDP by summing the incomes that firms pay households for the factors of production they hire. • The U.S. National Income and Product Account divide incomes into two big categories: • Wage income • Interest, rent, and profit income

  17. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • Wage Income Wage income, called compensation of employees in the national accounts, is the payment for labor services. It includes net wages and salaries plus fringe benefits paid by employers such health-care insurance, Social Security contributions, and pension fund contributions.

  18. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • Interest, Rent, and Profit income • Interest, rent, and profit income, called net operating surplus in the national account, is the sum of the incomes earned by capital, land, and entrepreneurship. • Interest is the income households receive on loans they make minus the interest they pay on their borrowing. • Rent includes payments for the use of land and other rented inputs. • Profit includes the profits of corporations and small businesses.

  19. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP

  20. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • Net domestic product at factor costis the sum of wages, interest, rent, and profit. • Net domestic product at factor cost is not GDP. • We need to make two adjustments to arrive at GDP: • One from factor cost to market prices • One from net product to gross product

  21. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • From Factor Cost to Market Price • The expenditure approach values goods at market prices; the income approach values them at factor cost. • Indirect taxes (such as sales taxes) make market prices exceed factor cost. • Subsidies (payments by government to firms) make factor cost exceed market prices. • To convert the value at factor cost to the value at market prices, we must: • Add indirect taxes and subtract subsidies

  22. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • From Net to Gross • The income approach measures net product. • The expenditure approach measures gross product. • Gross profit is a firm’s profit before subtracting the depreciation of capital. • Net profit is a firm’s profit after subtracting the depreciation of capital. • Depreciation is the decrease in the value of capital that results from its use and from obsolescence.

  23. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • Income includes net profit, so the income approach gives a net measure. • Expenditure includes investment. Because some new capital is purchased to replace depreciated capital, the expenditure approach gives a gross measure. • To get gross domestic product from the income approach, we must add depreciation to total income. • After making these two adjustments the income approach almost gives the same estimate of GDP as the expenditure approach.

  24. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP

  25. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP Statistical Discrepancy • The income approach and the expenditure approach do not deliver exactly the same estimate of GDP—there is a statistical discrepancy. • Statistical discrepancy is the discrepancy between the expenditure approach and income approach estimates of GDP, calculated as the GDP expenditure total minus the GDP income total.

  26. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP

  27. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • GDP and Related Measures of Production and Income • Gross national product orGNP is the market value of all the final goods and services produced anywhere in the world in a given time period by the factors of production supplied by residents of the country. • U.S. GNP = U.S. GDP + Net factor income from abroad

  28. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP Disposable Personal Income Consumption expenditure is one of the largest components of aggregate expenditure and one of the main influences on it is disposable personal income. Disposable personal income is the income received by households minus personal income taxes paid.

  29. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP Figure 21.2 shows the relationship between GDP, GNP, and disposable personal income.

  30. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • Real GDP and Nominal GDP • Real GDP is the value of the final goods and services produced in a given year expressed in the prices of the base year. • Nominal GDP is the value of the final goods and services produced in a given year expressed in the prices of that same year. • The method of calculating real GDP changed in recent years. Here we describe the essence of the calculation. The appendix gives the technical details.

  31. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • Calculating Real GDP • The goal of calculating real GDP is to measure the extent to which total production has increased. • Real GDP removes the influence of price changes from the nominal GDP numbers. • To focus on the principles and keep the numbers easy to work with, we’ll calculate real GDP for an economy that produces only one consumption good, one capital good, and one government service.

  32. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • Table 21.3 shows the calculation with 2005 (base year) and 2011. • To find the total expenditure in 2005 multiply the quantity of each item produced in 2005 by its price in 2005. • Then sum the expenditures to find nominal GDP in 2005. • The next slide shows the data.

  33. Nominal GDP in 2005 is $100 million. Because 2005 is the base year, real GDP in 2005 is also $100 million.

  34. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • In part (b) of Table 21.3, we calculate nominal GDP in 2011. • Again, we calculate nominal GDP by multiplying the quantity of each item produced by its price and then sum the expenditures to find nominal GDP in 2011.

  35. Nominal GDP in 2005 is $100 million. Nominal GDP in 2011 is $300 million.

  36. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP Nominal GDP in 2005 is $100 million and in 2011 it is $300 million. • Nominal GDP in 2011 is three times its value in 2005. • But by how much has the quantity of final goods and services produced increased?

  37. 21.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP • The increase in real GDP will tell by how much the quantity of good and services has increased. • Real GDP in 2011 is what the total expenditure would have been in 2011 if prices had remained the same as they were in 2005. • To calculate real GDP in 2011 multiply the quantities produced in 2011 by the price in 2005 and the sum these expenditures to find real GDP in 2011. • Part (c) of Table 21.3 shows the details.

  38. Real GDP in 2005 is $100 million. Real GDP in 2011 is $160 million—only 1.6 times real GDP in 2005.

  39. 21.3 THE USE AND LIMITATIONS OF REAL GDP We use estimates of real GDP for three main purposes: • To compare the standard of living over time • To track the course of the business cycle • To compare the standard of living among countries • The Standard of Living Over Time • To compare living standards we calculate real GDP per person—real GDP divided by the population.

  40. 21.3 THE USE AND LIMITATIONS OF REAL GDP In 2011, U.S. real GDP was $13,088 billion and the U.S. population was 310.1 million. Real GDP per person = $13,088 billion ÷ 310.1 million Real GDP per person = $42,206. In 1961, real GDP per person was $15,754. The standard of living in 2011 was 2.7 times the standard of living in 1961.

  41. 21.3 THE USE AND LIMITATIONS OF REAL GDP Two features of our changing standard of living are • The growth of potential GDP per person • Fluctuations of real GDP per person around potential GDP Potential GDPis the value of real GDP when all the economy’s factors of production —labor, capital, land, and entrepreneurial ability—are fully employed.

  42. 21.3 THE USE AND LIMITATIONS OF REAL GDP When some factors of production are unemployed, real GDP is less than potential GDP. When some factors of production are over-employed and working hard, real GDP exceeds potential GDP. In the short term, real GDP fluctuates around potential GDP. To measure the trend in the standard of living, we remove the influence of short-term fluctuations and focus on potential GDP. Figure 21.3 on next slide shows these two features.

  43. 21.3 THE USE AND LIMITATIONS OF REAL GDP • Real GDPper person grows and fluctuates around the path of potential GDP. • Potential GDP per person grew at 2.8 percent in the 1960s and slowed during the 1970s.

  44. 21.3 THE USE AND LIMITATIONS OF REAL GDP • Tracking the Course of the Business Cycle • Fluctuations in the pace of expansion of real GDP is called the business cycle. • The business cycle is a periodic, but irregular, up- and down-movement of total production and other measures of economic activity. • The four stages of a business cycle areexpansion, peak, recession, and trough.

  45. 21.3 THE USE AND LIMITATIONS OF REAL GDP The shaded periods show the recessions—periods of falling production that lasts for at least six months.

  46. 21.3 THE USE AND LIMITATIONS OF REAL GDP • Standard of Living Among Countries • To compare living standards across countries, we must convert real GDP into a common currency and common set of prices, called purchasing power parity. • Goods and Services Omitted from GDP • Household production • Underground production • Leisure time • Environment quality

  47. 21.3 THE USE AND LIMITATIONS OF REAL GDP • Household Production • Real GDP omits household production and it underestimates the value of the production of many people, most of them women. • Underground Production • Economic activity hidden from government to avoid taxes and regulations or production that is illegal. • Because underground economic activity is unreported, it is omitted from GDP.

  48. 21.3 THE USE AND LIMITATIONS OF REAL GDP • Leisure Time • Our working time is valued as part of GDP, but our leisure time is not. • Environment Quality • Pollution is not subtracted from GDP. • We do not count the deteriorating atmosphere as a negative part of GDP. • If our standard of living is adversely affected by pollution, our GDP measure does not show this fact.

  49. 21.3 THE USE AND LIMITATIONS OF REAL GDP • Other Influences on the Standard of Living • Health and Life Expectancy • Good health and a long life do not show up directly in real GDP. • Political Freedom and Social Justice • A country with a large real GDP per person might have limited political freedom and social justice. • A country with a lower standard of living might be one in which everyone enjoys political freedom.

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