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Changing East Asia and the U.S. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Changing East Asia and the U.S. What/where is East Asia?. China Japan South Korea North Korea Taiwan Hong Kong -Geographical proximity - Historical/cultural connectedness. Important Trends. Shifting balance of economic and military power in Asia—rise of China

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What where is east asia
What/where is East Asia?

  • China

  • Japan

  • South Korea

  • North Korea

  • Taiwan

  • Hong Kong

    -Geographical proximity

    - Historical/cultural connectedness

Important trends
Important Trends

  • Shifting balance of economic and military power in Asia—rise of China

  • Growing intra-regional/Asian trade

  • Shifting concerns and strategic interests for Asian countries and the U.S.

Three terms to understand china
Three terms to understand China

  • Developmental state

    2. Rapid, global industrialization

    3. Hegemony

China s developmental state
China’s Developmental State

  • IDEOLOGY: rapid economic development on behalf of society (follow examples of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan)

  • LEGITIMACY: based on success of economic development and nationalism

  • UNITY: prevent domestic disruption e.g. ethno-nationalist aspirations of Tibetans or Uighers in Xinjiang

  • POINT: China’s government will keep promoting this ideology and its policies to protect itself

Rapid global industrialization manufacturing center of the world still
Rapid Global Industrialization →Manufacturing Center of the World (still)

- #1 producer of coal, steel and cement

- produces 70% of the world’s toys

  • #1 producer of electronic goods

  • 3rdlargest producer of autos

  • 400 of the top 500 companies operate in China

  • Leads the world in ship building

Growing center of technology development production
Growing the World (stillCenter of Technology Development & Production

  • U.S. companies and universities establishing research centers in China

  • Growing Chinese research presence with nanotechnology, gene technology

  • Alternative energy—largest producer of wind turbines

Domestic impact of china s industrialization
Domestic Impact of China’s Industrialization the World (still

  • Growing middle class, about 150 million (US$10-20/day); huge reduction of poverty

  • Growing domestic market

  • Huge migrant labor pool

  • Rapid urbanization: about 50% in 2020

  • Growing income and wealth gap

  • Enormous water, air, soil pollution

  • Fake products

  • Developing capitalist “can do” culture

Modernization urbanization
Modernization/urbanization the World (still

Chinese nationalism pride
Chinese Nationalism & Pride the World (still

International regional impact of china s industrialization
International/Regional Impact of China’s Industrialization the World (still

  • 2nd largest economy in the world, will surpass the U.S. economy in 2019-2020

    • China’s GDP :10.09 T (PPP, 2010, CIA) [GDP/capita? $7,900]

    • US GDP: 14.66T (PPP, 2010, CIA) [GDP/capita: $48,000]

  • 2nd largest exporter in the world

  • 2nd largest trade partner with the U.S.

  • Represents 14% of world’s economy (PPP)

  • Holds nearly 2.8 trillion in foreign currency (2010)

  • China’s proposal: Asian economic integration EAFTA + Japan, South Korea + ASEAN

China and the carolinas
China and the the World (stillCarolinas

  • High-tech textiles to China

  • Lenovo Group in Research Triangle & Morrisville

  • Production of Haierin South Carolina (Haier is the largest appliance manufacturer in the world)

Issues and constraints
Issues and Constraints the World (still

  • Resource needs and costs

  • Economic slowdown—impact of interdependence

  • Inflation

  • Housing bubble and banking woes

  • Population growth

  • Political challenges:

    • Human rights: peasants, ethnic groups, workers

    • Corruption

    • Thousands of demonstrations each year

China s energy and resource challenge
China’s Energy and Resource Challenge the World (still

  • China is #2 in oil consumption

  • By 2020 China will import 70% of its oil needs (now 50%)

  • Coal provides 70% of energy

  • Number of autos in China expected to increase 5-fold

China s charm offensive
China’s “Charm Offensive” the World (still

  • to get resources and political support:

    • Offer “alternative” to the U.S. human rights approach

    • Provide investment without “strings”

    • Build physical infrastructure and schools

    • Promote cultural knowledge and exchanges

    • Example: deal with Kazakhstan (holds 3%of world’s oil reserves)

Outreach to oil producers
“Outreach the World (still” to Oil Producers

China s population workforce challenge
China’s Population & Workforce Challenge the World (still

  • China’s population will peak in 2030 and begin to decline

  • China’s rapid aging population problem

    • 2010 Census: people aged 60 or more = 13.3% of the total population [U.S. 65 or older = 12.9% of population]

    • 2050: aged population = 1/3 of population

    • Aged population greatest in rural areas

    • “4-2-1” phenomenon: one child supporting 2 parents and 4 grandparents

    • Increased need for medical care; decline of workers

Human rights
Human the World (stillRights

  • Increased personal freedom, up to a point

  • Crackdown on any attempts of autonomy

  • Arrest of any opposition or political critics

Rising hegemony
Rising Hegemony? the World (still

  • Hegemony = economic, political, ideological and cultural power of a state in the world system

    • Historically China has not been expansionist BUT it was the CENTER (中国) of an Asian tributary system

    • Hegemons do not recognize their rise or decline

    • Key to hegemony is economic power followed by military power

    • Hegemons try to change the “rules” of the world system in their favor: economic, political, cultural

China s military challenge
China’s Military Challenge the World (still

  • 3rd largest nuclear power

  • largest conventional army & modernizing

  • Modernizing airforce—J20

  • Building an aircraft carrier—blue water navy capability in the Pacific

  • Naval bases in Indian Ocean

  • Military spending?

    • Big increase 2008-2010

    • 2011 Official: US$91.5 B

South china sea issues
South China Sea Issues the World (still

  • Spratly Islands—oil and territorial control

  • Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia lay claim to the islands

  • Recent Vietnamese military exercises & China’s response

East china sea issues
East China Sea Issues the World (still

  • Diaoyutai or Senkaku Islands

    • Small, uninhabited islands

    • Contested by Japan, Taiwan and Mainland China; historical animosity b/t Japan and China

    • Possible oil nearby

China s challenge to the u s
China’s Challenge to the U.S. the World (still

  • Intellectual property rights & industrial espionage

  • Cyber warfare

  • China’s military in the Pacific—how to maintain U.S. superiority? Japan’s role?

  • China’s relationship to non-democratic states & Russia

  • the RMB exchange and role in global finance?

  • Future educational challenge? Engineers?

  • Transfer of Taiwan to mainland China

Japan s troubles
Japan’s Troubles the World (still

  • Domestic problems

  • lack of a dynamic economy

  • lack of effective leadership

  • spiraling social costs of an aging society

  • Rising nationalism and threat of militarization

  • nuclear power and energy needs

  • Regional challenges

    • China’s growing military power

    • Control of Senkaku islands

    • North Korea

    • Economic interdependence with China

North korea stalemate and tensions
North Korea: Stalemate and Tensions the World (still

What NK wants?

South Korea

Booming economy

Strong military w/ help of U.S.

President Lee Myung-bak willing to talk with NK but NK needs to:

Admit its attacks on SK

Cease any future attacks

  • Peace treaty with South Korea and U.S.

  • Diplomatic recognition by the U.S.

  • Economic aid

  • Keep its ties to China

  • Ability to threaten SK without a major response

  • Return of defectors