Climate Change Legislation & Agriculture

1. Climate Change Legislation & Agriculture 2009 Ag Outlook and Management Seminars

2. Climate Change Source: www.conservationreport.com

3. Climate Change Source: Congressional Budget Office

4. GHG Emission Rules • Greenhouse gas rules are coming • Whether through legislation or regulation • EPA has the authority to regulate GHGs • Via Clean Air Act • However, Congress would like to set the rules • H.R. 2454, American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, • Passed in U.S. House of Rep. on 6/26/09, 219-212 • S. 1733, Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act • Introduced 9/30/09, In committee (actually, six committees)

5. U.S. GHG Emissions Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007

6. CO2 Emissions Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007

7. CH4 Emissions Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007

8. N2O Emissions Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007

9. GHG Emission Categories Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007

10. GHG Emissions by Sector Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007

11. Agricultural GHG Emissions Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007

12. GHG Emission Statistics Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007

13. Climate Change Legislation • American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2454) • Requires utilities to supply an increasing percentage of their demand from a combination of energy efficiency savings and renewable energy (6% in 2012, 9.5% in 2014, 13% in 2016, 16.5% in 2018, and 20% in 2021-2039). • Provides for issuing, trading, banking, retiring, and verifying renewable electricity credits. • Establishes targets to cap and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, annually, so that GHG emissions from capped sources are reduced to 97% of 2005 levels by 2012, 83% by 2020, 58% by 2030, and 17% by 2050; and establish a federal GHG registry. • Provides for trading, banking and borrowing, auctioning, selling, exchanging, transferring, holding, or retiring emission allowances. Source: Congressional Research Service

14. Climate Change Legislation • Agriculture provisions in H.R. 2454 • Provides some exemptions from the GHG emission reduction requirements for agriculture and forestry • Provides incentive-based approach to GHG emission reduction/capture • Allows USDA to help establish eligible GHG offset practices and review of those practices • Shifts question on indirect-land-use to an independent panel for study with EPA and USDA to review in the future • Allows for a specific exemption for livestock (enteric fermentation from ruminant animals) from uncapped emissions guidelines Source: Craig Raysor, Gillon & Associates, PLLC

15. Lots of Analysis The EPA has funded the development of several models that are capable of examining the impact of this bill and other similar bills The environmental economists who worked on these models are very well respected and the work is sound However, the only certainty in the bill is the limit on carbon, everything else is assumption driven Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009

16. Key Assumptions The US economy was already on a slow growth path for energy consumption, the analysis assumes that this continues Coal fired plants largely shut down and are replaced by nuclear Enormous reliance on international and domestic offsets If we cannot build the large number of nuclear plants or find the international offsets, then the price of carbon will increase at about twice the reported rate Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009

17. Energy Sources Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009

18. GHG Emissions & Abatements Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009

19. Domestic Offsets Implementing regulations not yet written Uncertainty about how the offsets would work in agriculture, particularly for conservation tillage, but the intention is clearly to use these offsets as a way to stimulate agricultural incomes Consideration of leakage is prohibited pending a study Heavy reliance on the growth of trees on pasture and crop land Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009

20. Domestic Offsets Source: EPA Analysis of Waxman-Markey, April 20, 2009

21. Domestic Offsets Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009

22. Shifting Land Patterns Source: EPA, “Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential in U.S. Forestry and Agriculture”, Nov. 2005

23. International Offsets Must be a developing country that is a member of a unilateral or multilateral emissions reduction agreement with the United States Must have the technical capacity to monitor, measure, report and verify forest carbon fluxes resulting from deforestation Must have the capacity to reduce emissions from deforestation, including strong forest governance The international offset project itself must be shown to result in permanent verifiable reductions that are net of any leakage measures Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009

24. Allowances 2016 2030 Source: Congressional Research Service, June 2009

25. Carbon Prices Increase Over Time Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009

26. Prices Are Sensitive to Offsets Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009

27. Energy Price Paths Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009

28. Impacts on an Average Household Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009

29. Impacts on Tillage Practices Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009

30. Comparison of Results Allowance Price Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009

31. Assumptions Impact Results Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009

32. Climate Change Legislation Source: USDA, Office of Chief Economist “A Preliminary Analysis of the Effects of HR2454 on U.S. Agriculture”

33. Climate Change Legislation Source: FAPRI-Missouri, Report #05-09

34. Climate Change Legislation “Since farming is energy intensive, it will be hit hard by Waxman-Markey's energy price hikes. In addition to higher diesel fuel and electricity costs, prices for natural gas-derived fertilizers and other chemicals will also rise. Everything else affecting agriculture, from the cost of constructing farm buildings to the price of tractors and other farm equipment, will also go up. Consequently, farm profits are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2012 and will be an average 57 percent lower from 2012-2035.” Source: Ben Lieberman, Heritage Foundation, July 21, 2009

35. Results from a Budget Based Analysis USDA and FAPRI calculated the direct impact on corn production costs at 6% to 8% due to higher energy and fertilizer costs, actual increase could be twice this amount In addition, livestock producers will face higher utility costs Total for these two impacts is about $3.50 per hog by 2030 Benefits of about $1.50 per hog for fertilizer displacement and/or manure offsets Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009

36. Concluding Thoughts The potential for cropland conversion points to higher crop prices and feed costs Crop prices will likely track carbon prices Cropland conversion will benefit landowners through higher rents Agriculture will experience the benefits and the costs of climate change legislation

37. Thank you for your time!Any questions?