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Impact of Climate Variability on Water Resources in Ecuador: Hydroelectric Production and Droughts

This study investigates the influence of climate variability, particularly the ENSO phenomenon, on water resources in Ecuador, focusing on hydroelectric energy production and drought impacts. By analyzing rainfall anomalies, correlations with sea surface temperature (SST) in key Niño regions, and the relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall anomalies, we aim to understand the dynamics affecting water supply and hydroelectric production at the Paute River. Insights from this research are essential for water resource management in the context of climate change.

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Impact of Climate Variability on Water Resources in Ecuador: Hydroelectric Production and Droughts

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  1. INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN ECUADOR: A CASE STUDY OF HYDROELECTRIC PRODUCTION & DROUGHTS WATER RESOURCES PROJECT:

  2. Coordinators: Edison Heredia-CalderónRemigio H. Galarraga-Sánchez Participants: Alexandre Gagnon Andrea Ray Claudine Dereczynski Giampaolo Orlandoni Ileana Mora Marcos Costa Patricia Jaime Simone Ferraz Thomas Pagano

  3. OBJECTIVE

  4. Identification of ENSO signal on the climate of Ecuador • Calculate rainfall anomalies in terms of variancePA = P – P • p • where • P : mean precipitation • p: standard deviation of precipitation • Monthly precipitation anomalies correlated with SST anomalies in region • SST in region Niño1+2, Niño 3, and Niño 4 • SOI

  5. The Relationship Between SOI and Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo

  6. SST in Region Niño 1+2 versus Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo

  7. SST in Region Niño 3 versus Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo

  8. SSTA Niño 1+2 versus rainfall anomalies in Portoviejo

  9. Correlation Between Strong El Niño versus Rainfall Anomalies in Coastal Ecuador

  10. Monthly Average Precipitation at Paute (1963-1999)

  11. Monthly Precipitation versus Niño 1+2 at Paute

  12. Monthly Precipitation versus Niño 3 at Paute

  13. Monthly Precipitation versus SOI at Paute

  14. Niño4 SST Anomaly Sep-Dec versus Jan-Aug Cumulative Streamflow at Paute 1968-95

  15. North Atlantic SSTA Feb-Mar-Apr Average correlated with Jan-Aug Cumulative Streamflow at Paute

  16. Hydroelectric power production at Paute river • Mean yearly inflow discharge for normal, dry and wet years. • Cumulated mass (discharge and volume) x inflow volumes for wet, dry and normal years

  17. MEAN YEARLY INFLOW DISCHARGE AT PAUTE

  18. CUMULATED MASS CURVES (Discharge and Volume)

  19. DAILY ENERGY PRODUCTION, INFLOW AND RESERVOIR ELEVATION (OCT, 1995)

  20. RAINFALL - RUNOFF MODEL " N L C " DEFINITION OF THE MODEL • NLC is aimed at simulation of outflow from natural catchments. conceptual model consisting of storage (linear and nonlinear) elements. • NLC represents a single, two-component, rainfall-runoff model capable of modeling groundwater flow and direct runoff. • NLC is a lumped type MODE the input into the model is total rainfall over the catchment in each time interval.

  21. Input Data • Rainfall is provided at each simulation step. It could be supplied in two ways: - up to ten rain gauges - areal averages. • Calibration procedure is not part of the package. Trial-and-error procedure must be used.

  22. MODEL VARIABLES • PA input precipitation (mm) • ETP evapotranspiration (mm) • PE effective precipitation (mm) • Qs direct runoff (m3/s) • GI groundwater input (m3/s) • Qg groundwater runoff (m3/s) • Q total runoff (m3/s) • QDD deep percolation (mm) • parameters of the unsaturated zone - ENN maximum water holding capacity (mm) - EF actual water content (mm) • Other parameters

  23. Simulated and Observed Discharge at Paute - 1989

  24. Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

  25. M050 ARENALES - COLA DE SAN PABLO PRECIPITACION MEDIA

  26. Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

  27. M067 CUENCA AEROPUERTO PRECIPITACION MEDIA

  28. Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

  29. M541 COCHAPAMBA QUINGEO PRECIPITACION MEDIA

  30. Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

  31. M418 CUMBE PRECIPITACION MEDIA

  32. M138 PAUTE PRECIPITACION MEDIA

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