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Presented by: Andy Bootsma, Agro-climatologist Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre (ECORC) Agriculture and Agri PowerPoint Presentation
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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Eastern Canada: a summary of some results of recent research __________________________________________________________. Presented by: Andy Bootsma, Agro-climatologist Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre (ECORC)

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Presented by: Andy Bootsma, Agro-climatologist Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre (ECORC) Agriculture and Agri


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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Eastern Canada:a summary of some results of recent research __________________________________________________________

Presented by:

Andy Bootsma, Agro-climatologist

Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre (ECORC)

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), Ottawa, Ontario

Presented at: Workshop on “Climate Change and Agriculture in the Great Lakes Region: The Potential Impacts and What We Can Do”. Kellogg Center, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA, March 22, 2002.

Agriculture and

Agri-Food Canada

slide2

Research projects on impacts of climate change(supported in part by Gov’t of Canada Climate Change Action Fund)_________________________________________________________________________

3 projects (AAFC scientists + collaborators):

  • Impacts on agricultural production in Atlantic region(Bootsma et al.)
  • Crop yields and yield variability for selected regions in Canada using EPIC(De Jong et al.)
  • Risk of winter injury in eastern Canada(Bélanger et al.)
impacts on agriculture in atlantic region
Impacts on agriculture in Atlantic region
  • Crop Heat Units – corn and soybeans
  • ‘Effective’ growing degree-days – barley

(GDD > 5C adjusted for start/stop dates, daylength)

  • Water deficits (PE – P)
major areas of agriculture in atlantic region
Major areas of agriculture in Atlantic region

Agriculture and

Agri-Food Canada

change in crop heat units
Change in Crop Heat Units

Average Crop Heat Units

potential impact on grain corn
Potential impact on grain corn

Relationship between average CHU and average yield

from hybrid trial locations in eastern Canada.

potential impact on grain corn9
Potential impact on grain corn

Relationship between average CHU and average yields based

on farm statistics in eastern Canada.

potential impacts on soybeans
Potential impacts on soybeans

Relationship between average CHU and average yields from

variety trial locations in eastern Canada.

slide11

Potential impacts on soybeans

Relationship between average CHU and average yields from farm statistics in eastern Canada.

slide12

Potential impacts on 6-row barley

Relationship between EGDD and average yields from variety trial locations in eastern Canada.

slide13

Potential impacts on barley

Relationship between EGDD and yields from farm statistics in eastern Canada.

some conclusions
Some conclusions
  • Corn and soybean yields and acreage likely to increase significantly with climate warming.
  • Barley yields not likely to change significantly; acreage likely to decrease as a result.
  • Change in water deficits not likely to impact average yields significantly.
source canadian climate impacts scenarios ccis group

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Global Coupled Model (CGCM1) Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Simulation Mean Temperature Change Spring - MAM 2050s

Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group

slide17
CGCM1 Global Coupled Model, Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Simulation Precipitation Change Summer - JJA 2050s

Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group

comparison with other gcm s annual period s ont
Comparison with other GCM’s –annual period, S.Ont.

CGCM1

Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group

Agriculture and

Agri-Food Canada

average corn yields vs chu usa locations

Average corn yields vs CHU – USA Locations

1 = Illinois

2 = Nebraska

3 = Indiana

4 = Iowa

5 = Ohio

6 = Missouri

i = irrigated

(based on average yield of top 10 hybrids in field trials, 4 to 8 yrs data, 1994-2001)

Agriculture and

Agri-Food Canada

heat units chu available for corn
Heat units (CHU) available for corn

Agriculture and

Agri-Food Canada

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1 = Illinois

2 = Nebraska

3 = Indiana

4 = Iowa

5 = Ohio

6 = Missouri

(based on average yield of top 10 hybrids in field trials, 4 to 8 yrs data, 1994-2001)

Agriculture and

Agri-Food Canada

slide26

Crop Yield and Yield Variability from EPIC model________________________________________________________________________________________________

  • EPIC = Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (Williams et al.)
  • Simulated annual yields for baseline (1965-95) period and 2xCO2 climate scenario (2040-2060)
  • barley, spring wheat, canola, corn, soybeans, potatoes and winter wheat
  • 29 locations across Canada (not all crops at all locations)
location of climate stations and gcm grid points

Location of climate stations and GCM grid points

Agriculture and

Agri-Food Canada

changes in monthly mean temperature and precipitation as a result of the 2xco2 scenario
Changes in monthly mean temperature and precipitation as a result of the 2xCO2 scenario.

Agriculture and

Agri-Food Canada

summary of results for s ontario s manitoba
Summary of Results for S. Ontario/S. Manitoba

Agriculture and

Agri-Food Canada

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Impacts on Risk of Winter Damage to Perennial Crops in Eastern CanadaG. Bélanger, P. Rochette, Y. Castonguay, A. Bootsma, D. Mongrain______________________________________________________

  • Forage crops and fruit trees
  • Developed suite of climatic indices (imperfect)
  • Indices for Forage Crops:

- fall hardening: Tsum < 42°F during hardening

- loss of hardiness in winter: Tsum > 32°F accumulation rate during cold period

- cold stress during winter: days with snow cover – period Tmin < 5°F

- soil heaving/smothering: rain during period Tmin < 5°F

indices for fruit trees
Indices for Fruit Trees
  • Fall hardening:daylength at first frost
  • Winter cold:Tsum < 5°F
  • Cold intensity:Lowest Tmin
  • Winter dehardening:Tsum > 32°F after Jan 1 to last date of Tmin < 5°F
  • Spring frost damage:Tsum > 32°F , Jan 1 to last 32 °F Tsum > 42°F , Jan 1 to last 28 °F
some results conclusions for locations in ontario near great lakes for 2040 69 period
Some results/conclusions for locations in Ontario near Great Lakes for 2040-69 period

Results for Forage crops:

  • reduced hardening in fall due to warm temperatures during hardening phase
  • loss of hardiness during winter due to periods of mild temperatures
  • less protection from snow cover during cold period in colder regions
  • Moreheaving/smothering in cold areas, less in milder areas of S. Ontario
  • Overall, expect increased risk of damage in most areas of eastern Canada – some areas near G. Lakes less certain
results for fruit trees
Results for fruit trees
  • improved fall hardening due to shorter daylength at first autumn frost
  • less cold stress in winter due to fewer T < 5°F in winter; higher Tmin)
  • more de-hardening in cold areas due to warm temperatures during winter; less in milder regions by lakes due to short cold period)
  • less bud damage due to spring frosts in cold regions as GDD from Jan 1 to last spring frost decrease; more in mild areas (assumes chilling requirement for dormancy before Jan 1is met; otherwise bud burst will be delayed and reduce the risk)
results for fruit trees cont d
Results for fruit trees (cont’d)

Overall conclusions:

  • New varieties/species may be possible in current regions
  • Northward extension of commercial production possible
  • More stable production in currently marginal areas due to lower risks of spring frost damage
results of all 3 studies available in adobe pdf format from a bootsma at e mail bootsmaa@em agr ca
Results of all 3 studies available in Adobe pdf format from A. Bootsma at:E-mail: bootsmaa@em.agr.ca

Atlantic study available at: http://res2.agr.ca/ecorc/staff/boot-a.htm

Thank you for your attention!

some gaps and needs
Some gaps and needs
  • Need results for multiple GCM experiments
  • Improved downscaling procedures
  • Include change in climate variability
  • Procedures to update results with new GCM’s
  • Improved and more impact models
  • Include soils, management scenarios
some future plans ccaf projects
Some future plans (CCAF projects)
  • Ste-Foy & Swift Current RC’s + collaborators:
        • Impacts on forage (timothy) yield and quality (east &west)
        • Risk of winter damage – alfalfa (prairies)
        • Economics of forage production (prairies)
  • ECORC/PFRA + collaborators:
        • Impacts on LSRS using multiple GCM outputs
        • Expand to entire country
        • Refinement of LSRS climate criteria
  • ECORC + collaborators:
        • Daily scenarios at 0.5° lat./long. Grid
        • Multiple GCM outputs
        • Several downscaling methods
        • Focus on agricultural areas