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Water Quality New York City Department of Environmental Protection Bureau of Water Supply Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality in the New York City Water Supply System Mark S. Zion, Elliot M. Schneiderman and Donald C. Pierson

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slide1

Water Quality

New York City Department of Environmental Protection

Bureau of Water Supply

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality in the New York City Water Supply System

Mark S. Zion, Elliot M. Schneiderman and Donald C. Pierson

Bureau of Water Supply, New York City Department of Environmental Protection

Hampus Markensten, Emmet Owens, Rakesh Gelda, Steve Effler

Upstate Freshwater Institute

Adao H. Matonse, Aavudai Anandhi and Allan Frei

Institute for Sustainable Cities, City University of New York

Watershed Science and Technical Conference

West Point, New York

September 14-15, 2009

nyc dep climate change integrated modeling project water quality phase i
Purpose: To evaluate the potential effects of future climate change on the water quality of New York City Water Supply

Turbidity in Schoharie Reservoir

Eutrophication in Cannonsville Reservoir

Integrated Modeling Strategy

Use of an integrated suite of already developed models

Preliminary development of tools and measures future water quality

Phase I result highlights

Preliminary model applications to obtain initial estimates of climate effects

NYC DEP Climate Change Integrated Modeling ProjectWater Quality – Phase I
slide3

Climate Change

Phase I Study Areas

  • Eutrophication – Focus on Cannonsville Reservoir
  • Turbidity – Focus on Schoharie Reservoir

Location Map

NY

State

NY City

slide5

Climate Change Scenarios

Phase I – Schoharie Turbidity

Delta Change Method Applied for 7 GCM/Emission Scenarios

  • GCM/Emission Scenario data obtained from IPCC AR4 (2007)
  • For each GCM/Emission Scenario, precipitation and air temperature are compared in control vs. future periods to derive monthly delta change factors.
slide6

Delta Change

Calculate future climate scenarios

CEQUAL-W2 Reservoir Model

GWLF Watershed Model

Pre-Processor

Simulate reservoir volume, temperature and constituents in 2 dimensions (vertical, longitudinal)

  • Calculate turbidity inputs using sediment rating curve
  • Estimate inflow water temperature
  • Reformat data for W2 model

Simulate streamflow and evaporation

OASIS

System Model

Simulate tunnel operations

Phase I - Schoharie Turbidity Modeling System

Delta Change, GWLF, OASIS and W2 Models

Historical Meteorology

Precip

Air Temp

Air Temp

Inflows

Turbidity Loads

Stream Temp

Tunnel Ops

PET

Streamflows

Stream

Flow

Tunnel Flows

Reservoir Water Quality

slide7

Average Monthly Values

Current Climate

2080-2100 Scenarios

Results - Schoharie

Input Turbidity

Input Flow

Reservoir Inflow (cms)

Input Turbidity (NTU)

In-Lake Turbidity (Segment 7)

Segment 7 Turbidity (NTU)

slide8

Results - Schoharie

Input Turbidity

Fraction of Time over 100 NTU

Baseline Scenario

2046-2065 Scenarios

2081-2100 Scenarios

slide9

Results - Schoharie

Segment 7 In-Lake Turbidity

Fraction of Time over 100 NTU

Baseline Scenario

2046-2065 Scenarios

2081-2100 Scenarios

slide10

Results - Schoharie

Segment 7 In-Lake Turbidity

Fraction of Time over 15 NTU

Baseline Scenario

2046-2065 Scenarios

2081-2100 Scenarios

slide12

Climate Change Scenarios

Phase I – Cannonsville Eutrophication

Delta Change Method Applied for 9 GCM/Emission Scenarios

  • GCM/Emission Scenario data obtained from IPCC AR4 (2007)
  • For each GCM/Emission Scenario, precipitation and air temperature are compared in control vs. future periods to derive monthly delta change factors.
slide13

Delta Change

Calculate future climate scenarios

Pre-Processor

UFI-1D /

PROTECH Reservoir Model

GWLF Watershed Model

  • Adjust reservoir water balance based on future inputs
  • Estimate inflow water temperature
  • Estimate dew point temperature
  • Reformat data for W2 model

Simulate streamflow, evaporation, nutrient and sediment loads

Simulate reservoir volume, temperature, nutrients and phytoplankton functional groups in vertical dimension

Phase I - Schoharie Turbidity Modeling System

Delta Change, GWLF, UFI-1D/PROTECH Models

Historical Meteorology

Air Temp

Wind Speed

PAR

Precip

Air Temp

Inflows

Meteorology

Nutrient Loads

Stream Temp

Reservoir Ops

PET

Streamflows

Nutrient Loads

Reservoir Water Quality

Historical Operations

slide14

Scenario Reservoir Chl a

Baseline Reservoir Chl a

Baseline Loads

Streamflow

Dissolved P

Particulate P

Scenario Loads

Streamflow

Dissolved P

Particulate P

Example: Strategy to Evaluate Watershed Management

Baseline Chl a Frequency Distribution

Reservoir Model (calibrated)

freq

mg/m3

Scenario Chl a Frequency Distribution

Reservoir Model (calibrated)

?

freq

mg/m3

slide15

Example: Changes in Mean Annual Chlorophyll Concentration

Epilimnion Cannonsville Reservoir Due to MOA Programs

Pre - MOA

0.25

Frequency

0.00

5

10

15

20

25

30

Input DP Load

Chlorophyll (mg m-3)

Pre - MOA

Current Climate

Post - MOA

Post - MOA

0.25

Frequency

0.00

5

10

15

20

25

30

Chlorophyll (mg m-3)

slide16

Average Monthly Values

Current Climate

2080-2100 Scenarios

Results - Cannonsville

2081-2100 Climate Scenarios

Reservoir Inflow

Reservoir Inflow (cms)

Input DP Load

Input PP Load

PP Load (kg/day)

DP Load (kg/day)

slide17

Current Climate

0.50

2080-2100 Scenarios

0.25

Frequency

Frequency

0.00

0.00

40

0

10

20

30

0

10

20

30

Chl-a Concentration (mg/m3)

Water Temperature (C)

Average Monthly Values

Current Climate

2080-2100 Scenarios

25

14

20

12

15

Water Temperature (C)

10

Chl-a Conc. (mg/m3)

10

8

6

5

4

2

Month

Month

Results - Cannonsville

Epilimnion

Water Temperature

Epilimnion

Chl-a Concentration

Daily Histograms

slide18

Results - Cannonsville

Thermal Stratification

Density Difference

(Epilimnion – Hypolimnion)

Current Climate

2046-2065

2081-2100

Density Difference (kg/m3)

slide19

Growing Season Averages

Chl-a

Total P

0.25

0.30

Pre-MOA

0.00

0.00

0.30

0.25

Current Climate - Post-MOA

0.00

0.00

Frequency

Frequency

Future Climate:

2046-2065

0.25

0.30

0.00

0.00

0.25

0.30

Future Climate: 2081-2100

0.00

0.00

5

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

30

5

Chl a (mg/m3)

Total P (mg/m3)

slide20

Results - Cannonsville

Epilimnion Chl-a Concentration

Fraction of Time over 15 mg/m3

Future Climate: 2080-2100

Pre-MOA

Boxes/whiskers show range of 2081-2100 climate scenarios

Post-MOA / Current Climate

slide21

Summary of Results

  • Schoharie Reservoir Turbidity:
    • Increased fall and early winter flows lead to increase turbidity loading during these time periods. Reduced spring flows lead to reduction in loading during these periods
    • Turbidity levels in the reservoir at the Shandaken Tunnel gate are increased in fall and early winter, reduced in late winter and unchanged in summer.
  • Cannonsville Reservoir Eutrophication
    • Slightly longer period of thermal stratification.
    • Enhanced phytoplankton blooms due to slightly increased DP loads and thermal stratification changes
    • Increased phytoplankton much less than magnitude of reductions in algal growth due to watershed management program implementation
slide22

Future Work – Phase II

  • Extend turbidity analysis to Ashokan Reservoir
  • Implement fully connected OASIS/W2 model
  • Incorporation of improved watershed turbidity loading models
  • Extend eutrophication analysis to other Delaware System reservoirs
  • Implement feedback between OASIS and

UFI-1D/PROTECH model results

  • Improved simulation of watershed biogeochemistry to better reflect climate change effects on nutrient loads
slide23

Water Quality

New York City Department of Environmental Protection

Bureau of Water Supply

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality in the New York City Water Supply System

Mark S. Zion, Elliot M. Schneiderman and Donald C. Pierson

Bureau of Water Supply, New York City Department of Environmental Protection

Hampus Markensten, Emmet Owens, Rakesh Gelda, Steve Effler

Upstate Freshwater Institute

Adao H. Matonse, Aavudai Anandhi and Allan Frei

Institute for Sustainable Cities, City University of New York

Watershed Science and Technical Conference

West Point, New York

September 14-15, 2009