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Role of China in SSA: Trade

Role of China in SSA: Trade. Raphael Kaplinsky Institute of Development Studies, Centre for Research in Innovation Management. A taxonomy for assessing the impact of Asian Drivers on other economies. The impacts may be competitive or complementary. And they may be direct or indirect.

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Role of China in SSA: Trade

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  1. Role of China in SSA:Trade Raphael Kaplinsky Institute of Development Studies, Centre for Research in Innovation Management

  2. A taxonomy for assessing the impact of Asian Drivers on other economies

  3. The impacts may be competitive or complementary

  4. And they may be direct or indirect

  5. We know much more about the direct impacts

  6. From the rich country perspective, we tend to focus on the competitive effects

  7. But in SSA, the complementary impacts are often much more visible

  8. Focusing on the trade vector

  9. SHARE OF C&T EXPORTS DIRECTED TO THE US

  10. CLOTHING AND TEXTILES EXPORTS ARE IMPORTANT • Lesotho, clothing and textiles accounted for 99% of manufactured exports and 50% of GDP in 2002 • Kenya in 2003, employment in EPZ clothing enterprises accounted for the equivalent of nearly 20 percent of all formal sector manufacturing employment

  11. CLOTHING AND TEXTILE IMPORTS INTO US($m)2005/2004

  12. CLOTHING AND TEXTILE IMPORTS INTO USUNIT PRICES–2005/2004 Top 10 products

  13. Actual and projected global share of China’s consumption of base metals

  14. SSA EXPORTS SA, Lesotho, Swaziland, Madagascar, Kenya, Mauritius Hard commodities Clothing footwear SSA LOSS SSA GAIN Oil exporters, Zambia, SA, DRC, Botswana, Ghana, Gabon, etc CHINA IMPORTS CHINA EXPORTS All SSA Oil Clothing footwear SSA LOSS SSA GAIN Most SSA SSA IMPORTS

  15. Policy conclusions • Changing terms of trade • Industrial policy • or do we mean innovation policy? • A level playing field? • Slow down trade policy reform within SSA • Look east

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