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China: Economic Powerhouse

China: Economic Powerhouse. Matthew Sherwood Senior Global Economist Experian Business Strategies matthew.sherwood@uk.experian.com. Presentation overview. China today China in 2015 and beyond Implications for tourism Risks Economic downturns Politics Demographics. Some key facts.

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China: Economic Powerhouse

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  1. China: Economic Powerhouse Matthew Sherwood Senior Global Economist Experian Business Strategies matthew.sherwood@uk.experian.com

  2. Presentation overview • China today • China in 2015 and beyond • Implications for tourism • Risks • Economic downturns • Politics • Demographics

  3. Some key facts • World’s fourth largest economy • Passes Germany this year • Passes Japan in 2012 • Passes USA in 20?? • Impact on the world • Stronger growth • Higher oil prices • Slower wage rises • Cheaper clothes, sofas, etc. • Did you know? • Accounts for only 12% of global manufacturing • Nearly half live on equivalent of $2 a day • Runs trade deficits with most countries

  4. Another golden age of globalisation GDP, % change Source: IMF, Experian Ltd. * USA, Japan and Eurozone from 2007

  5. GDP per headUS$ ‘000 Collectively rich, individually poor US$ GDP in 2006 ($ trn)

  6. GDP by province

  7. Provinces are countries

  8. GDP per head by province

  9. Developments in tourism, 2000-05 • Booming tourism industry • Foreign visitors have doubled • Number of travel agencies up by two-thirds • Employment up by 50% • Number of ‘tourist hotels’ up by 4% • Visitor characteristics • Half from Asia • Britons lead W Europe • 500,000 visits in ‘05

  10. Outbound tourism today • Numbers have trebled • Where are they going? • Hong Kong • Korea • Rest of Asia • Traveller characteristics • Shopping trips • Otherwise low-spend • Suburban hotels • Cheap meals

  11. Chinese tourists to the UK • Less than 1% visit the UK • Account for < 1% of UK visitors, nights and spend • Similar figures for Scotland • Around 7,000 visits a year • About 33,000 nights • Spend £4m Source: VisitBritain

  12. China powers ahead GDP, % change

  13. China: 2015 and beyond • Incomes up twofold • Still only one-tenth of US levels • Growing disparities • Rich v poor • Rural v urban • Politics • Domestic unrest? • Foreign relations • Demographics • One-child policy begins to bite • Does China grow rich before it grows old?

  14. Av annual growth, 2005-2015

  15. Booming cities

  16. Summary • China today: a ‘poor’ economic power • China in 2015 and beyond: starting to rival US • Implications for tourism: take the long view • Risks • Growth: does it remain fast enough? • Politics: social unrest? • Demographics: rapid aging v rapid growth

  17. Experian Business Strategies www.business-strategies.co.uk

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