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China: Economic Powerhouse. Matthew Sherwood Senior Global Economist Experian Business Strategies matthew.sherwood@uk.experian.com. Presentation overview. China today China in 2015 and beyond Implications for tourism Risks Economic downturns Politics Demographics. Some key facts.

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china economic powerhouse

China: Economic Powerhouse

Matthew Sherwood

Senior Global Economist

Experian Business Strategies

matthew.sherwood@uk.experian.com

presentation overview
Presentation overview
  • China today
  • China in 2015 and beyond
  • Implications for tourism
  • Risks
    • Economic downturns
    • Politics
    • Demographics
some key facts
Some key facts
  • World’s fourth largest economy
    • Passes Germany this year
    • Passes Japan in 2012
    • Passes USA in 20??
  • Impact on the world
    • Stronger growth
    • Higher oil prices
    • Slower wage rises
    • Cheaper clothes, sofas, etc.
  • Did you know?
    • Accounts for only 12% of global manufacturing
    • Nearly half live on equivalent of $2 a day
    • Runs trade deficits with most countries
another golden age of globalisation
Another golden age of globalisation

GDP, % change

Source: IMF, Experian Ltd.

* USA, Japan and Eurozone from 2007

developments in tourism 2000 05
Developments in tourism, 2000-05
  • Booming tourism industry
    • Foreign visitors have doubled
    • Number of travel agencies up by two-thirds
    • Employment up by 50%
    • Number of ‘tourist hotels’ up by 4%
  • Visitor characteristics
    • Half from Asia
    • Britons lead W Europe
      • 500,000 visits in ‘05
outbound tourism today
Outbound tourism today
  • Numbers have trebled
    • Where are they going?
      • Hong Kong
      • Korea
      • Rest of Asia
  • Traveller characteristics
    • Shopping trips
    • Otherwise low-spend
      • Suburban hotels
      • Cheap meals
chinese tourists to the uk
Chinese tourists to the UK
  • Less than 1% visit the UK
  • Account for < 1% of UK visitors, nights and spend
  • Similar figures for Scotland
    • Around 7,000 visits a year
    • About 33,000 nights
    • Spend £4m

Source: VisitBritain

china powers ahead
China powers ahead

GDP, % change

china 2015 and beyond
China: 2015 and beyond
  • Incomes up twofold
    • Still only one-tenth of US levels
    • Growing disparities
      • Rich v poor
      • Rural v urban
  • Politics
    • Domestic unrest?
    • Foreign relations
  • Demographics
    • One-child policy begins to bite
    • Does China grow rich before it grows old?
summary
Summary
  • China today: a ‘poor’ economic power
  • China in 2015 and beyond: starting to rival US
  • Implications for tourism: take the long view
  • Risks
    • Growth: does it remain fast enough?
    • Politics: social unrest?
    • Demographics: rapid aging v rapid growth
experian business strategies

Experian Business Strategies

www.business-strategies.co.uk