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Egypt’s Population Program:

Egypt’s Population Program:. Assessing 25 Years of Family Planning. Scott Moreland. Egypt’s demographic transition started in the 60’s. Determinants of Fertility Decline. This transition has been due to the success of Egypt’s family planning program.

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Egypt’s Population Program:

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  1. Egypt’s Population Program: Assessing 25 Years of Family Planning Scott Moreland

  2. Egypt’s demographic transition started in the 60’s

  3. Determinants of Fertility Decline

  4. This transition has been due to the success of Egypt’s family planning program

  5. This fall in fertility has been due to the success of Egypt’s family planning program

  6. Since 1980, family planning clinical capacity has grown by over 50%

  7. The number of pharmacies has increased more than 700% since 1978

  8. Expenditure on family planning has increased 400% since the late 80’s

  9. Family Planning use has increased more than 600% since 1980

  10. The number of women using contraception has increased by over 400%

  11. What has Egypt gained as a result of the family planning program? A smaller, more age-balanced population Health benefits for mothers and children Expenditure savings on social and health programs

  12. What would Egypt be like today if the family planning program had been less successful? We compare two 25-year period scenarios: • the actual • a “counterfactual.”

  13. Egypt’s growth in family planning use was above average for its region

  14. If EGYPT’S CPR growth had followed that of sub –Saharan Africa, it would be only 33.5% vs. 59% today 59 CPR growth of 1.8 per year “Actual” 33.5 CPR growth of 0.5 per year “Counterfactual”

  15. With slower growth in family planning, fertility would not have fallen so much 4.6 3.1

  16. And the demographic transition would have stalled with a higher population growth rate

  17. Egypt’s population would be 12 million greater in 2005 if family planning growth had been slower

  18. Higher fertility means there would be considerably more people in the younger age groups

  19. What were the benefits for health? Consequences for child mortality Consequences for maternal morality

  20. High risk births are defined as those where: • The mother is young • The mother is old • That are closely spaced with the last birth • That are high parity

  21. Infant mortality rates fall as the percentage of high risk births falls

  22. With lower fertility the percentage of women in the “high risk” categories falls

  23. Fertility and infant and child mortality rates are related Fertility % of women in high risk IMR U5MR

  24. The infant mortality rate would not have fallen as dramatically

  25. The lower infant mortality rate, combined with lower fertility, avoided over 3 million infant deaths

  26. The majority of the avoided infant deaths were due to the lower risk pregnancies

  27. Similarly, the under 5 mortality rate would have been higher

  28. Over 6 million deaths were averted among children under 5 years old 6.1 million

  29. Lower fertility helped to save the lives of over 17,000 Egyptian mothers

  30. What benefits were realized from lower expenditures on health and social programmes?

  31. Had fertility not fallen as much, enrolment in pre-university would have been higher

  32. Education costs would have been higher

  33. The infant population would have been much greater

  34. Early childhood immunization costs would have also been higher

  35. Per capita food subsidies have increased significantly in the last few years

  36. Food subsidy costs would have been higher

  37. How do these savings compare with the costs of family planning?

  38. Total expenditure on family planning has amounted to some LE 2,402 million over the last 25 years

  39. These family planning costs have more than paid for themselves in cost savings in the three sectors examined • 12M less people • 10M fewer young people in nonworking ages • 3M fewer infant deaths • 6M fewer childhood deaths • 17,000 mothers’ lives saved • Lower education, child health and food subsidy costs

  40. Egypt’s family planning program has been a sound investment resulting in: A smaller population A more favorable age distribution with fewer young people in the non-working ages Improved infant mortality and fewer infant deaths Improved child morality and fewer early-childhood deaths Fewer maternal deaths Lower education, health, and food subsidy costs

  41. This presentation was made possible by funding from USAID through the POLICY Project.

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