slide1 n.
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
History as a launch pad for foresight: PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
History as a launch pad for foresight:

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 9

History as a launch pad for foresight: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Download Presentation
History as a launch pad for foresight:
An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

  1. Timelines and the Future • History as a launch pad for foresight: • Robert Textor, Ethnographic Futures -- the rubber band effect. • Paul Saffo, Technological Forecasting -- twice as far back as forward. • Layering history of different sectors: • Analysing different patterns of change. • Identifying different speeds of change.

  2. Timeline layers: Differentials

  3. Time “present” “future” Horizon scanning Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change. system limits; problems develop; unintended impacts global; multiple dispersed cases; trends and drivers Number of cases; degree of public awareness 3rd horizon institutions and government newspapers; news magazines; broadcast media laypersons’ magazines; websites; documentaries local; few cases; emerging issues Pockets of future found In present specialists’ journals and websites scientists; artists; radicals; mystics

  4. Horizon scanning • Beginning of research, not the end; • “N of 1”; • Unearths contradictions; • Subjective, not objective; • “Unscientific” sources; • Systems-based; • Unfamiliar concepts. • Primary futures tool for identifying and monitoring emerging change. • Related to issues management and competitive intelligence. • ”Environment” refers to the information environment – all media – and ”scanning” to logically structured, continuous monitoring of data sources. • High quality scanning: • identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, • confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and • has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.

  5. Scanning + 3 Horizons • Scanning provides a starting point to monitor possible transformative / disruptive changes. • 3 Horizons helps us organise and consider the interplay of trends and emerging changes. • Uses: • Challenge obsolescing assumptions; • Spot emerging constraints / opportunities; • Get beyond incrementalism.

  6. The 3 Horizons framework Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cycles B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry

  7. Origins of 3 Horizons framework • UK Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (IIS) Project • Perspective: long-term time horizon • Need: technology road-mapping that reflects generations of technological innovation • Researchers: Bill Sharpe, Tony Hodgson, Andrew Curry • Publications and articles: • IIS Technology Forward Look; Sharpe and Hodgson • Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy; Curry and Hodgson • Method now in wide use, book collecting case studies being developed

  8. Differences in the 3 Horizons Three Horizons: Functional differences Dominance of worldview B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry Horizon 2: Entrepreneurs Horizon 3: Visionary Leaders Horizon 1: Managers Incremental adaptation & innovation Status quo, momentum, inertia Emerging change & visions Pockets of the future found in the present

  9. Questions for each horizon • What are the current working assumptions and systems of production and marketing? What are you taking for granted when you make management decisions (horizon 1)? • What changes are emerging as completely new paradigms and means to understand and undertake various human activities (horizon 3)? What are visionary leaders saying? • Which of the immediate changes you see represent a transition or accommodation for evolving tensions as current assumptions and work patterns obsolesce, and transformative changes erupt into possibility (horizon 2)? What opportunities do you see? What are entrepreneurs building?