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Politics 201

Politics 201. Top Level Considerations. Politics and fiat Public and/versus congressional perception Perception of and tradeoff between issues Spin—who controls perception of the plan, and thus shapes public/congressional reaction Media Opposition Party White House

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Politics 201

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  1. Politics 201

  2. Top Level Considerations • Politics and fiat • Public and/versus congressional perception • Perception of and tradeoff between issues • Spin—who controls perception of the plan, and thus shapes public/congressional reaction • Media • Opposition Party • White House • Members of president’s party

  3. Credit and Blame • Does ‘normal means’ require congressional involvement/action • Obama tends to get credit and blame • Visibility • Psychological needs of the electorate (leadership) • Overstatement of importance in policymaking • Perceptual unitary nature of presidency vs. other branches • Teams often use alternate agents (agencies, congress, courts, other countries) to avoid politics links • Key Question—who will the hurt / benefitting groups blame

  4. Internal Link: Coop/Bipart/Olive Branch • THESIS: gestures that appeal to the other party increase the probability that other legislation will pass • Bipart: Plan fosters cooperation, this spills over to other issues • Olive Branch: Plan is a sop to the GOP, invites horse-trading • Logrolling: Passing one policy “breaks the logjam” that prevents other policies from passing… fosters momentum that transfers between legislative initiatives

  5. Internal Link: Flip Flops • THESIS: Presidents lose credibility when they are seen to change positions on important issues • Most ‘flip flop’ links describe Bush’s rolling of Kerry in the ‘04 presidential campaign: “I voted for war funding before I voted against it” • Has weaknesses as an internal link argument—easier to challenge uniqueness

  6. Internal Link: Political Capital • Is the GOLD STANDARD of politics internals—most internal links can be explained and described in terms of political capital • Describes the president’s overall ability to get their way with Congress—twist arms, offer favors, issue threats • Key considerations include • Is it limited? • Does it cross over between issues? • Is it replenishable

  7. Internal Link: Public Popularity • THESIS: Presidents with public approval are more likely to get their way with congress—congress is afraid to challenge popular presidents • This is backed up by a ton of social science-esque research (Edwards et al.) • Argument applies to both the POLICY and the PRESIDENT • Interest groups can shape public reaction to a policy

  8. Internal Link: Winning & Losing • THESIS: Winners Win—presidents that push through contentious policies as being successful (winners), decreasing the chance that congress will challenge them in the future • Health care reform (ACA) is a decent example • Thesis was originally proposed by Norman Ornstein • Argument also works in reverse—presidents who lose have a more difficult time forcing congress into line on future votes

  9. Internal Link: Legislative Blocks • THESIS: The reactions of like-minded lawmakers to the plan influence the chance of passage of future legislation • At the most basic level • Democrats (unity) • Republicans (cooperation) • Other groups • Dem moderates • Blue dogs • New Democrats • GOP moderates

  10. Internal Link: Specific Legislators • McConnell (GOP senate leader) • Boehner (GOP house leader) • Reid (Dem senate leader) • Pelosi (Dem house leader) • McCain, Collins(GOP senators, centrists)

  11. Link Genre: Lobby Backlash • THESIS: organized groups react to the plan in ways that impacts the future political process • This can include rewarding or punishing politicians through the use of campaign funding, directing advertising, and other means of exerting influence • Are VERY powerful link arguments, especially because the media and academics like to talk about their relative power • Are KEY on this topic because public reaction to most cases will be pretty minimal • Who are important lobbies on this topic?

  12. Politics in **this** Congress • Control of House (GOP) and Senate (Dems) is split between the two major parties • House: 234 GOP / 201 Dems • Senate: 54(55) Dems / 45 GOP • Probability of passage of *any* meaningful legislation is very low • Hastert Rule (House) • Filibuster (Senate) • Passage of any major legislation requires at least some GOP support • GOP-acceptable bills likely alienate more liberal Democrats • Election-season starts this fall and compromises a lot of potential politics arguments

  13. Scenarios on this topic • Immigration Reform • Climate Change (EPA authority) • Budget • Gun Control • Transatlantic Trade/TPA

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