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OPC Extratropical Guidance for 2012 Hurricane Season

Obtain detailed forecasts from Ocean Prediction Center for overwater extratropical cyclones, including transition time from tropical to extratropical, reasoning, and sea extent. Review verification feedback on forecast accuracy. Explore life spans and landfalls of notable tropical storms, hurricanes, and post-tropical systems. Summary includes issues faced and work distribution amongst different forecast desks.

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OPC Extratropical Guidance for 2012 Hurricane Season

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  1. Ocean Prediction Center 2012 Hurricane Season Scott ProsiseTim Holley

  2. OPC Support for NHC…extratropical guidance • OPC will provide a forecast for location, maximum sustained winds and maximum extent of these winds in each quadrant for overwater extratropical cyclones N of 25N. • Provide estimated time of full transition from tropical cyclone to extratropical. • Provide a brief discussion, via email of forecast reasoning for the above forecast • Radius of 12 ft seas north of 31N

  3. Tropical Storm Alberto Tropical Storm Beryl Hurricane Chris Tropical Storm Debby Hurricane Gordon Hurricane Kirk Tropical Systems in 2012 OPC provided extratropical/post-tropical guidance for 12 of 19 tropical cyclones • Hurricane Leslie • Hurricane Michael • Hurricane Nadine • Hurricane Rafael • Hurricane Sandy • Tropical Storm Tony

  4. Forecast Issued YEAR NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES 2012 176 Advisories 467 Extratropical forecast points ( 113 or 24% for Nadine ) 2011 185 Extratropical forecast points

  5. 24 Hour Forecast Error

  6. 48 Hour Forecast Error

  7. 72 Hour Forecast Error

  8. 96 Hour Forecast Error

  9. 120 Hour Forecast Error

  10. OPC VERIFICATION • Still done manually. Slow and labor intensive. • Intensity forecast… • Slightly under forecast (< 5 kt) 24 and 48 hours • Slightly over forecast (< 5 kt) 96 and 120 hours • 27 forecast were exact (zero error)

  11. Sep 8 - 500 MB analysis and 96 hr forecast Leslie

  12. Leslie – Verification killer! 120 hour forecast error = 1209 NM

  13. Extratropical Life • Longest life: Chris - 4.25 days • Shortest life: Kirk – Instant dissipate • Landfall: • Leslie – Iceland • Rafael – Portugal • Sandy - USA

  14. T.S Alberto

  15. T.S. Beryl

  16. T.S. Beryl

  17. Hurricane Chris

  18. Hurricane Chris

  19. T.S. Debby

  20. T.S. Debby

  21. Hurricane Gordon

  22. Hurricane Gordon

  23. Hurricane Kirk

  24. Hurricane Kirk

  25. Hurricane Leslie

  26. Hurricane Leslie

  27. Hurricane Michael

  28. Hurricane Michael

  29. Hurricane Nadine

  30. Hurricane Nadine

  31. Hurricane Rafael

  32. Hurricane Rafael

  33. POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL OCT 18 03Z

  34. Hurricane Sandy

  35. Hurricane Sandy

  36. Hurricane Sandy 47 ft seas 21Z - 10/29/12

  37. Hurricane Sandy NPP VIIRS Day – Night Band 10/29/12

  38. Hurricane Tony

  39. Hurricane Tony

  40. 2012 Extratropical Post-Tropical Track Composite

  41. Problems? • No significant problems noted in 2012 • Work flow i.e. extratropical forecast responsibility more divided. • Three desks, Atlantic Regional, High Seas and Outlook desk all issue tropical forecast

  42. The End Thank You Scott Prosise Ocean Prediction Center 2013 NOAA Hurricane Conference

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