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2020: A Strategist Approach – How the Changing Face of Higher Education and America Will Affect Who You Are and What You Do. Bryan J. Cook Director, Center for Policy Analysis American Council on Education. The Major Trends. Significance of 2020 Who will learn? Waning boomlet

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2020: A Strategist Approach –How the Changing Face of Higher Education and America Will Affect WhoYou Are and What You Do

Bryan J. Cook

Director, Center for Policy Analysis

American Council on Education

the major trends
The Major Trends
  • Significance of 2020
  • Who will learn?
    • Waning boomlet
    • Traditional redifined
    • Where are the guys
    • Exploding diversity
  • Who will teach?
  • Who will lead?
bold goal 2020
Bold Goal: 2020

“…by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world”

-President Barak Obama

higher education 2009 to 2020
Higher Education: 2009 to 2020
  • Increased access
  • More accountability
  • Greater transparency
  • Cost containment
a cautionary tale
A Cautionary Tale

Source: U.S. Department of Education, Projection of Education Statistics.

the waning boomlet
The Waning Boomlet

Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door.

high school graduates variability by state
High School Graduates: Variability by State

Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door.

ny high school graduates 2000 to 2020
NY High School Graduates 2000 to 2020

Source: US Census Bureau

the old nontraditional student
The Old Nontraditional Student

Percentage of Total Student Population Age 25 or Older

Source: U.S. Department of Education, Digest of Education Statistics 2007.

the new nontraditional student
The New Nontraditional Student

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study.

what s happened to the guys
What’s Happened to the Guys?

Source: King, Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage?

another look at the gender gap
Another Look at the Gender Gap

Source: ACE, Minorities in Higher Education 21st Annual Status Report.

what s happened to the guys25
What’s Happened to the Guys?

31% growth

19% growth

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2014

diversity of high school graduates
Diversity of High School Graduates

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking on the College Door.

current variation in k 12 diversity
Current Variation in K-12 Diversity

Source: U.S. Department of Education, Common Core of Data 2006-07.

cultural diversity
Cultural Diversity

16%

61%

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Postsecondary Education Statistics, Projection of Education Statistics to 2015

cultural diversity31
Cultural Diversity

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, 2003-04.

who will teach36
Who Will Teach?

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.

faculty retirements
Faculty Retirements

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.

who will teach38
Who Will Teach?

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.

who will teach39
Who Will Teach?

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.

who will lead41
Who Will Lead?

Distribution of College Presidents by Race, 2006

who will lead42
Who Will Lead?

Percent of Minority Presidents by Institution Type, 1995 and 2005

senior administrators no more likely to be people of color
Senior Administrators No More Likely to be People of Color

Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. 2008. On the Pathway to Presidency: Characteristics of Higher Education’s Senior Leadership.

who will lead44
Who Will Lead?

Distribution of College Presidents by Gender, 2005

who will lead45
Who Will Lead?

Percent of Female Presidents by Institution Type, 1995 and 2005

and more likely to be women
And more likely to be women …

Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. Forthcoming. On the Pathway to Presidency: Characteristics of Higher Education’s Senior Leadership.

recapping the trends
Recapping the Trends
  • Boomlet will wane nationally, with growth continuing in a few states
  • A new kind of non-traditional student
  • Boomer retirees a potentially huge market
  • Huge educational strides by women
  • Increasing racial and cultural diversity
  • Major wave of faculty retirements
center for policy analysis

Center for Policy Analysis

202-939-9551

Bryan_cook@ace.nche.edu

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