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National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251. Higher Education and the Future of Wisconsin. Presented to the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System Milwaukee, Wisconsin June 7, 2007.

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Higher Education and the Future of Wisconsin


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    1. National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251 Higher Education and the Future of Wisconsin Presented to the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System Milwaukee, Wisconsin June 7, 2007

    2. Planning Resource Allocation Assessment The Management Cycle Strategic Management —The allocation of resources to programmed activities calculated to achieve a set of goals.

    3. State Planning Institution State State Resource Allocation Assessment Institution Institution The Management Cycle in a Public Institution

    4. Strategic Planning at the State/System Level Creating a “Public Agenda”—Identifying Those Key Issues Facing the State Which the System of Higher Education Can Help Address

    5. $30,000 High Income, Low Educational Attainment High Income, High Educational Attainment CT State New Economy Index (2002) Top Tier Middle Tier NJ Low Tier MA MD $25,000 CO VA NH NY DE MN Personal Income Per Capita, 2000 IL WA CA AK NV MI RI US FL HI WI GA OH OR PA VT KS IN NC AZ $20,000 MO IA ME NE TX TN WY SC AL UT KY ND ID OK SD NM MT LA AR WV MS Low Income, Low Educational Attainment Low Income, High Educational Attainment $15,000 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength 5

    6. 12 High Tech Employment, Low Educational Attainment High Tech Employment, High Educational Attainment MA CO NH Correlation = 0.76 9 CA Percentage Employment in High Tech Occupations VA NJ MN CT WA MD UT OR VT 6 ID NM AZ TX NY NE GA IL SD US PA NC RI FL IA KS MO OH WI IN DE ME AL 3 MI OK NV ND TN SC KY AR WV AK HI MS MT LA WY Low Tech Employment, Low Educational Attainment Low Tech Employment, High Educational Attainment 0 15 20 25 30 35 40 Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Relationship Between Educational Attainment and High Tech Employment Source: State New Economy Index, U.S. Census Bureau 6

    7. 30 MN NH VT Correlation = 0.69 UT HI MA ND 15 CT WI IA ME NE CO RI State Health Index, United Health Foundation WA KS NJ SD VA ID OR CA PA AZ AK OH MT WY IL 0 NY IN US DE MI MD TX MO NV NM KY OK NC FL WV AL GA AR SC TN -15 MS LA -30 10% 20% 30% 40% Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Source: United Health Foundation, U.S. Census Bureau Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Health 7

    8. Educational Attainment of Adults Age 18-64—Total U.S. Population vs. Prison Population (Percent) Source: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics 2002 data, U.S. Census Bureau 2005 data

    9. Incarceration Rate by State in 2005—Prisoners Under Federal and State Jurisdiction per 100,000 Residents Source: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau

    10. 20 NY CA 16 CT OR NV UT VT CO RI MA FL WA NM Employment in Arts and Entertainment per 1,000 Employees 12 NJ HI GA US MN NH ME MT MI MD WI IL VA AK MO PA TN TX AZ IN SC OH NC KS OK ID NE 8 LA WV MS DE WY KY AR AL IA ND SD 4 15 20 25 30 35 40 Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees, 2005 The Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Employment in the Arts, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

    11. Strategic Decision Areas Basic Mission Clientele Program/Service Mix Comparative Advantage Assets Objectives Basic Purposes of the Enterprise and Its Guiding Principles for Behavior Target Audiences to Be Served Program Offerings and Priorities of the Enterprise “Differential Advantage” Sought Over Other Organizations Engaged in Similar Activities Changes Needed in Human, Physical, Information or Intangible Assets of the Enterprise What the Organization Must Accomplish in Order to Move from Existing to Desired State of Affairs

    12. Population

    13. Douglas Bayfield Iron Ashland Vilas Sawyer Burnett Florence Washburn Oneida Price Forest Marinette Rusk Barron Polk Lincoln Langlade Taylor Chippewa St. Croix Menominee Dunn Oconto Marathon Shawano Door Clark Eau Claire Pierce Pepin Kewaunee Portage Trempealeau Wood Waupaca Brown Jackson Outagamie Buffalo Manitowoc Waushara Winnebago Monroe Adams Calumet Green Lake La Crosse Juneau Fond du Lac Marquette Vernon Sheboygan 99,844 to 921,654 Dodge Columbia Ozaukee Sauk Richland 49,671 to 99,844 Washington Crawford 30,319 to 49,671 Waukesha Dane Iowa Jefferson 17,134 to 30,319 Milwaukee Grant Racine 4,580 to 17,134 Rock Green Walworth Lafayette Kenosha Total Population, 2005 Wisconsin = 5,536,201 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

    14. Population Projections—Percent Change, 2000­25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

    15. South Dakota Pennsylvania North Dakota West Virginia Rhode Island New Mexico Mississippi Wisconsin New York Louisiana Nebraska Wyoming Michigan Alabama Montana Vermont Kansas Maine Ohio Iowa Population Projections, College-Age Residents (Age 18-24)—Percent Change from 2000 to 2025 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

    16. Douglas Bayfield Iron Ashland Vilas Sawyer Burnett Florence Washburn Oneida Price Forest Marinette Rusk Barron Polk Lincoln Langlade Taylor Chippewa St. Croix Menominee Dunn Oconto Marathon Shawano Door Clark Eau Claire Pierce Pepin Kewaunee Portage Trempealeau Wood Waupaca Brown Jackson Outagamie Buffalo Manitowoc Waushara Winnebago Monroe Adams Calumet Green Lake La Crosse Juneau Fond du Lac Marquette Vernon Sheboygan Dodge 16 .1% to 39 .3% Columbia Ozaukee Sauk Richland 12 .5% to 16 .1% Washington Crawford 9 .4% to 12 .5% Waukesha Dane Jefferson Iowa 5 .7% to 9 .4% Milwaukee Grant Racine Rock -2 .3% to 5 .7% Green Walworth Lafayette Kenosha Percent Change in Total Population, 2005-2025 Wisconsin = 12.8% Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration, Population and Household Projections 2000-30

    17. Projected Change in Wisconsin Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2000-20 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

    18. Douglas Bayfield Iron Ashland Vilas Sawyer Burnett Florence Washburn Oneida Price Forest Marinette Rusk Barron Polk Lincoln Langlade Taylor Chippewa St. Croix Menominee Dunn Oconto Marathon Shawano Door Clark Eau Claire Pierce Pepin Kewaunee Portage Trempealeau Wood Waupaca Brown Jackson Outagamie Buffalo Manitowoc Waushara Winnebago Monroe Adams Calumet Green Lake La Crosse Juneau Fond du Lac Marquette Vernon Sheboygan Dodge 6,037 to 384,219 Columbia Ozaukee Sauk Richland Washington 2,460 to 6,037 Crawford Waukesha 1,403 to 2,460 Dane Jefferson Iowa Milwaukee 586 to 1,403 Grant Racine Rock 83 to 586 Green Walworth Lafayette Kenosha Total Minority Population, 2005 Wisconsin = 777,003 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

    19. Douglas Bayfield Iron Ashland Vilas Sawyer Burnett Florence Washburn Oneida Price Forest Marinette Rusk Barron Polk Lincoln Langlade Taylor Chippewa St. Croix Menominee Dunn Oconto Marathon Shawano Door Clark Eau Claire Pierce Pepin Kewaunee Portage Trempealeau Wood Waupaca Brown Jackson Outagamie Buffalo Manitowoc Waushara Winnebago Monroe Adams Calumet Green Lake La Crosse Juneau Fond du Lac Marquette Vernon Sheboygan 1 .5% to 100 % Dodge Columbia Ozaukee 0 .0% to 1.5% Sauk Richland Washington Crawford Waukesha Dane Jefferson Iowa Milwaukee Grant Racine Rock Green Walworth Lafayette Kenosha Counties Where 80% of Minority Population Reside, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

    20. Economy and the Workforce

    21. Percent of Total Gross State Product by Industry and Comparison to U.S. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

    22. Employment in High-Technology Establishments as Share of Total Employment by State, 2004 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CFED

    23. Projected Percent Change in Occupations Requiring Some Postsecondary Training, 2002-2012 Note: Some college, Associate, Bachelor’s and higher. Source: ACINet, Career InfoNet

    24. Registered Nurses Retail Salespersons Janitors & Cleaners, exc. Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners Customer Service Representatives Combined Food Prep./Serving Workers, incl. Fast Food Personal & Home Care Aides Home Health Aides Truck Drivers, Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Waiters & Waitresses Nursing Aides, Orderlies, & Attendants Carpenters Business Operations Specialists, All Other Receptionists & Information Clerks Sales Reps., Wholesale & Manufacturing, exc. Technical/Scientific Products Teacher Assistants Accountants & Auditors General & Operations Managers Elementary School Teachers, exc. Special Education Team Assemblers Executive Secretaries & Administrative Assistants Computer Software Engineers, Applications Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners Child Care Workers Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services Landscaping & Groundskeeping Workers Wisconsin Projected Occupation Growth, Top 25 Occupations 2004-2014 Source: Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, Office of Economic Advisors

    25. 16,010 Wisconsin Projected Occupation Growth, Top 25 Occupations Typically Requiring Postsecondary Education 2004-2014 Source: Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, Office of Economic Advisors

    26. South Dakota Pennsylvania West Virginia North Dakota New York Nebraska Wyoming Ohio Iowa Projections of Working-Age Population (Age 18-64)—Percent Change from 2000 to 2025 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

    27. Percent of Civilian Population Participating in the Workforce, 2004 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

    28. Percent of Civilians Age 25-64 Not in the Workforce By Education Attainment, 2005 U.S.Wisconsin Less than High School 43.2 31.3 High School 27.0 20.5 Some College 20.7 17.2 Associate Degree 17.3 12.6 Bachelor’s Degree 15.4 14.2 Graduate/Prof. Degree 12.4 12.8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)

    29. Douglas Bayfield Iron Ashland Vilas Sawyer Burnett Florence Washburn Oneida Price Forest Marinette Rusk Barron Polk Lincoln Langlade Taylor Chippewa St. Croix Menominee Dunn Oconto Marathon Shawano Door Clark Eau Claire Pierce Pepin Kewaunee Portage Trempealeau Wood Waupaca Brown Jackson Outagamie Buffalo Manitowoc Waushara Winnebago Monroe Adams Calumet Green Lake La Crosse Juneau Fond du Lac Marquette Vernon Sheboygan 75 % to 80 % Dodge Columbia Ozaukee 70 % to 75 % Sauk Richland Washington 65 % to 70 % Crawford Waukesha Dane 60 % to 65 % Iowa Jefferson Milwaukee Grant 53 % to 60 % Racine Rock Green Walworth Lafayette Kenosha Percent of Civilian Population Participating in the Workforce, 2004 Wisconsin = 70.8% Source: State of Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development

    30. 84.4% 91.8% 10.1% 27.3% 8.7% Educational Attainment and Rank Among States—Wisconsin, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey (ACS)

    31. Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group—Wisconsin, the U.S. and Leading OECD Countries, 2004 Source: Education at a Glance 2005, OECD

    32. Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

    33. Percent of Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

    34. Douglas Bayfield Iron Ashland Vilas Sawyer Burnett Florence Washburn Oneida Price Forest Marinette Rusk Barron Polk Lincoln Langlade Taylor Chippewa St. Croix Menominee Dunn Oconto Marathon Shawano Door Clark Eau Claire Pierce Pepin Portage Kewaunee Trempealeau Wood Waupaca Brown Jackson Outagamie Buffalo Manitowoc Waushara Winnebago Monroe Adams Calumet Green Lake La Crosse Juneau Fond du Lac Marquette Vernon Sheboygan 23 .3% to 43 .5% Dodge Columbia Ozaukee Sauk Richland 19 .2% to 23 .3% Washington Crawford 16 .7% to 19 .2% Waukesha Dane Iowa Jefferson 14 .2% to 16 .7% Milwaukee Grant Racine 10 .1% to 14 .2% Rock Green Walworth Lafayette Kenosha Percent of Population Age 25-64 with at Least a Bachelor’s Degree, 2000 Dane = 43.5 Wisconsin = 24.9 Menominee = 10.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

    35. White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander Males Males Males Males Males Females Females Females Females Females Norway Canada U.S. Index = 81% U.S. Index = 72% Educational Attainment of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) in Wisconsin—Indexed to Most Educated Country, 2005 Bachelor's Degree or Higher All College Degrees (Associate or Higher) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; OECD

    36. Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average—Wisconsin, 1960-2000 U.S. Average Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000)

    37. Wisconsin Median Earnings Age 25-64 by Degree Level, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

    38. Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and an Associate Degree—Population Age 18-64, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

    39. Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and a Bachelor’s Degree—Population Age 18-64, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

    40. The Education Pipeline

    41. Key Transition Points in the Education Pipeline • Complete High School • Enter College • Finish College • Enter the Workplace

    42. Student Pipeline, 2004 Of 100 9th Graders, How Many… Source: NCES Common Core Data, IPEDS Residency and Migration Survey, IPEDS Enrollment Survey, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

    43. Percent of Racial/Ethnic Groups at Each Stage of the Education Pipeline, 2004—Wisconsin Source: U.S. Census Bureau; WICHE High School Graduates; NCES College Participation and Completion

    44. High School Graduation Rates—Public High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2004 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (rev. 071106)

    45. 45

    46. Douglas Bayfield Iron Ashland Vilas Sawyer Burnett Florence Washburn Oneida Price Forest Marinette Rusk Barron Polk Lincoln Langlade Taylor Chippewa St. Croix Menominee Dunn Oconto Marathon Shawano Door Clark Eau Claire Pierce Pepin Kewaunee Portage Trempealeau Wood Waupaca Brown Jackson Outagamie Buffalo Manitowoc Waushara Winnebago Monroe Adams Calumet Green Lake La Crosse Juneau Fond du Lac Marquette Sheboygan Vernon Dodge 1,366 to 8,957 Columbia Ozaukee Sauk Richland Washington 715 to 1,366 Crawford Waukesha 438 to 715 Dane Jefferson Iowa Milwaukee 226 to 438 Grant Racine Rock 59 to 226 Green Walworth Lafayette Kenosha Public High School Graduates, 2002-2003 Wisconsin = 67,057 Source: University of Wisconsin System Administration

    47. Projections of High School Graduates to 2018 By Race/Ethnicity—Wisconsin Source: WICHE Projections of High School Graduates

    48. College-Going Rates—First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2004 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (2004 data update 02-06-07)

    49. Percent of First-Time Freshmen Who Attend College Within Their Reported State of Residence, Fall 2004 Source: NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Enrollments; ef2004c Final Release Data File

    50. Out-of-State Institutions Attended by Wisconsin First-Time Degree/Certificate Seeking Undergraduate Students, Fall 2004 No. of Students Institution State Sector University of Minnesota-Twin Cities MN Public 4-Year 1,333 Winona State University MN Public 4-Year 485 University of Minnesota-Duluth MN Public 4-Year 243 Northern Michigan University MI Public 4-Year 230 Michigan Technological University MI Public 4-Year 184 Century Community and Technical College MN Public 2-Year 156 Saint Cloud State University MN Public 4-Year 148 Minnesota State College-Southeast Technical-Winona MN Public 2-Year 143 Minnesota State University-Mankato MN Public 4-Year 110 Lake Superior College MN Public 2-Year 106 University of St Thomas MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 95 Martin Luther College MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 92 Brown College MN Private For-Profit 4-Year 90 University of Iowa IA Public 4-Year 84 Luther College IA Private Non-Profit 4-Year 80 Saint Olaf College MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 74 Wyo Tech WY Private For-Profit 2-Year 74 Arizona State University at the Tempe Campus AZ Public 4-Year 73 Loyola University Chicago IL Private Non-Profit 4-Year 67 Northwestern University IL Private Non-Profit 4-Year 64 Purdue University-Main Campus IN Public 4-Year 64 Iowa State University IA Public 4-Year 59 Bethel University MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 59 Saint Louis University-Main Campus MO Private Non-Profit 4-Year 56 Dakota County Technical College MN Public 2-Year 54 (continued)