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G. Begni, MEDIAS-France E. Gordov, SCERT/IMCES, Russia

TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED MULTIDISCIPLINARY STUDY OF THE NORTHERN EURASIA CLIMATIC HOTSPOTS RECOMMENDATIONS OF AN INTAS SCIENTIFIC STRATEGIC WORKSHOP. G. Begni, MEDIAS-France E. Gordov, SCERT/IMCES, Russia M. Heimann, MPI for Biogeochemistry, Germany M. Kabanov, IMCES, Russia

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G. Begni, MEDIAS-France E. Gordov, SCERT/IMCES, Russia

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  1. TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED MULTIDISCIPLINARY STUDY OF THE NORTHERN EURASIA CLIMATIC HOTSPOTSRECOMMENDATIONS OF AN INTAS SCIENTIFIC STRATEGIC WORKSHOP G. Begni, MEDIAS-France E. Gordov, SCERT/IMCES, Russia M. Heimann, MPI for Biogeochemistry, Germany M. Kabanov, IMCES, Russia V. Lykossov, Institute for Numerical mathematics RAS, Russia A. Shvidenko, IIASA, Austria E. Vaganov, Institute of Forest SB RAS, Russia

  2. WHYSHOULD WE LEAD SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ? • Regions may manifest specific Earth System dynamics that may induce considerably different consequences for the global Earth system. Some regions may act as switch or choke points • Regional studies can contribute substantially to the reconstruction of global dynamics from regional patterns. • An integrated approach is mandatory to define sustainable development strategies. • Siberiaexhibits unique features that deserve such an integrated approach (see Gordov et al.). • ESS-P encourages such regional approaches.

  3. WHYDOES ESS-P ENCOURAGE IRS’ ?[1] • Regional activities are important to ESS-P’s mandate on several levels. Current knowledge demonstrates that, at the regional level, aspects of global change manifest significantly different (yet surprisingly coherent and teleconnected) Earth System dynamics. • These are often broadly associated with socio-economic and geopolitical characteristics.

  4. HOWDOES ESS-P ENVISION IRS’ ? [1] • Transcend disciplinary boundaries across natural & social sciences, • Address all relevant components of the Earth system, • Reflect the particular socio-economic and biophysical aspects of the region, • Address regional research as an integrative Earth science from planning to synthesis & completion stages.

  5. HOWDOES ESS-P ENVISION IRS’ ? [2] • IRS should address regions that may act as switch or choke points or hot spots. Small changes in regional system may lead to profound changes in the the Earth System. • “Integrated” specially refers to: • “horizontal” integration of elements and processes within and across a region, • “vertical” integration involving the two-way linkages between the region and the global system.

  6. HOWSHOULD WE LEAD SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ? • Draw up a list of key issues that have to be addressed in an integrative way • Take into account existing results, both from national and EU (& INTAS) sponsored research projects & programmes • Organize the work in line with guidelines of ICSU & ESS-P/IRS, and information needs from IPCC. Define proper means and structures • In particular, et up a a relevant network made of scientists and decision makers • Have concrete outcomes and outreach policy

  7. WHICH KEY ISSUESSHOULD WE ADDRESS IN SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ? [1] • What are the main features of the regional CC? • What are the regional sources of these changes? • How are they linked to global change features? • In turn, how do they impact them? • In particular, what are the teleconnections with surrounding sub-regions & regions? • How can sub-regional and regional modelling be developed & nested into more global models?

  8. WHICH KEY ISSUESSHOULD WE ADDRESS IN SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ? [2] • Can regional scenarios be developed in line with IPCC ones? • What are the anticipated physical, biological & socio-economic impacts of GC? • Are relevant socio-ecological models available & validated? • Do satisfactory links between physical and socio-economical scientists exist?

  9. WHICH KEY ISSUESSHOULD WE ADDRESS IN SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ? [3] • Are there actions that could be undertaken to slow down the sources of adverse CC impacts? • At what cost? And • Which actions should be undertaken to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change? • At what cost?

  10. HOWDID WE BEGIN THE WORK ? • A dedicated INTAS SSW (Scientific Strategic Workshop) was convened (July 04) • Already existing knowledge was identified • The above developed guidelines were endorsed • It was recommended to analyse gaps & overlaps in light of IRS guidelines, identify integrative steps to be undertaken, set up an information and organisational infrastructure for SIRS/NEIRS • Two series of detailed recommendations (strategic/technical) were endorsed.

  11. DETAILED STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS [1] 01 – Acknowledge the key role of SCERT/IMCES and give a proper mandate to a key core network. 02 – Bridge physical scientists, socio-economic scientists and policy makers. 03 – Set up close links with IPCC and if possible get involved into it

  12. DETAILED STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS [2] 04 – Proper authorities to support in situ and remote sensing data collection and circulation 05 – EC to include integrated approach of Northern Eurasia hotspots into FP7 research topics 06 – INTAS to bring a relevant support to the core structure & its integrative work.

  13. DETAILED STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS [3] 07 – ISTC to support relevant aspects of NEIRS in line with its strategy & policy 08 – NASA & GOFC to encourage links & synergies between NEESPI/NESRIN and NEIRS/SIRS 09 – SB/RAS to support SCERT/IMCES

  14. DETAILED STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS [4] 10 – TACIS to take advantage of SCERT to better integrate regional scientists in the ERA 11 – The core network to have relevant contacts with APN (e.g. grants) 12 – The core network to have relevant contacts with NATO (e.g. grants, infrastructure)

  15. DETAILED STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS [5] 13 – SCERT & its international partners to lead ENVIROMIS forums as central events. 14 – SCERT & its international partners to lead young scientists conferences as central events. 15 – Edit more key research results in peer-reviewed literature.

  16. DETAILED TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS [1] 01 – SCERT & its international partners to lead ENVIROMIS forums as central events. 02 – SCERT & its international partners to lead young scientists conferences as central events. 03 – Include into SIRS & NEIRS tools to evaluate societal, economic and political costs of regional CC impacts and mitigation actions.

  17. DETAILED TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS [2] 04 –Analyse & underline the role of data & information (relevance, quality, homogeneity) 05 – Pay proper attention to remotely sensed data, to in situ measurement systems maintenance and to development of assimilation models 06 – Pay proper attention to the role of aerosols in regional CC, collect relevant measurements & integrate them into relevant coupled models

  18. DETAILED TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS [3] 07 – Pay a specific attention to the regional contribution to the global net GHG & radiative balances (exchange between reservoirs) in close connection with IPCC,e.g. : • Permafrost melting & release of CO2 & CH4 • Extension of bogs & release of CO2 & CH4 • Changes in forest ecosystems & shift to the North • Increase in albedo of deforested areas (snow)

  19. DETAILED TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS [4] 08 – Pay a specific attention to tropospheric & stratospheric chemistry and their variability at relevant sub-regional & temporal scales 09 – Pay a specific attention to practical application of results to enhance the current state of environment. Include an INTAS SSW about environment rehabilitation & control into ENVIROMIS 2006.

  20. SO … NEIRS AND SIRS REQUIRE AN ACTIVE INTERNATIONAL CO-OPERATION!

  21. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !

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