气候变化脆弱性及适应规划 —— 中国视角 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning in China

1. 气候变化脆弱性及适应规划——中国视角Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning in China PAN Jiahua, ZHENG Yan, etc. ACCC-CASS Team 2013.7.2

2. Contents • Understanding the climate change risk • Adaptation and development • Vulnerability Mapping of China • Adaptation planning: climate capacity perspective • 理解气候变化风险 • 适应与发展 • 中国的气候变化脆弱性评估 • 适应规划：基于气候容量的视角

3. Understanding the climate risk climate risk “Disaster risk signifies the possibility of adverse effects in the future.” Extreme events (Typhoon, Rainstorm): low-probability, high-intensity events – the intensity and exposure to them tend to be more pervasive in explaining disaster loss than vulnerability Less extreme events (Drought): higher probability, lower intensity – the vulnerability of exposed elements plays an increasingly important role (high confidence). “High vulnerability and exposure are generally the outcome of skewed development processes, such as those associated with environmental mismanagement, demographic changes, rapid and unplanned urbanization in hazardous areas, failed governance, and the scarcity of livelihood options for the poor (high confidence).” [IPCC,2012] • Climate Hazards 气候事件: typhoon, drought, flooding, etc. • Exposure 风险暴露度: human, economic assets, infrastructures, ecosystem service… • Vulnerability 脆弱性: sensitivity + adaptive capacity

4. Fast Urbanization and increasing risk in China since 1980s Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Ningbo, Hongkong, …ranking among top 20 coastal cities with high climate risk by 2050 (OECD,2007）

5. Economic Losses of GDP in total Weather related disasters in China (1990-2010) • 中国气象灾害历史损失特点： • 总损失随着EXPOSURE 持续增加； • 相对损失因防灾减灾DRR投入而减少。 Economic Losses of GDP in different weather disasters in China (2003-2010)

6. 中国分省区气候变化脆弱性评估Climate Vulnerability Mapping for China (2010) • 来自气候容量差异的地域特征：Geographical unbalance in climate risks and vulnerability • 动态变化特征：Increasing wealth and more exposed physical capitals； Aging society with more exposure population in future … 气候容量及其政策含义: Climate carrying capacity and its policy implication 基于气候变化情景，分析气候本底条件变化对人口和资源承载力的影响。

7. 影响脆弱性的关键因素 Key driving factors of climate vulnerability in China

8. 中国适应规划的重点领域Priortization in the China’s AP • 重点领域及优先目标Prioritized areas： • 水安全 water security ：城市化地区（及容量扩展型、限制型适应区）的水资源供给、水环境、防洪防汛、水质安全等； • 农业及粮食安全 agriculture and food security：东北、华北、中部等农业发展地区 • 气候贫困与生态移民 climate poverty reduction and eco-migration：西北气候脆弱、生态敏感和气候贫困高发区 • 生态安全 ecological security：西南，西北，青藏等，关涉生物多样性保护、生态系统健康、大江大河水源地，环境资源支撑等。 • 城市人居环境 urban human settlements：城市群地区，着眼于减小气候灾害、合理的人口/产业/区域布局、更宜居健康的城市化。 • 气候防护基础设施climate proofing infrastructures：（1）城市化地区的能源电力、交通、供排水等城市生命线，（2）农业发展地区的农林水利体系，（3）生态安全地区的生态基础设施。 • 环境健康Environmental /climate & health： 公共卫生防护能力。 • 。。。

9. 国家十二五规划发展新格局：适应规划的起点Strategy in the 12th Natl FYP : start point of AP • 城市化战略格局: urbanization strategy”两横三纵” • 主要城市化地区：环渤海地区、中原经济区、长江三角洲地区、长江中游地区、珠江三角洲地区、成渝地区、宁夏沿黄经济区等。 • 农业战略格局：Agricultural strategy“七区二十三带”筑牢粮食安全屏障 • 七大农业主产区：东北平原、黄淮海平原、长江流域、汾渭平原、河套灌区、华南和甘肃新疆等农产品主产区 • 生态安全战略格局：Ecological security strategy“两屏三带”构建绿色发展生态屏障 • 生态脆弱区、大江大河源头：“青藏高原生态屏障”,“黄土高原-川滇生态屏障”,“东北森林带”,“北方防沙带”,“南方丘陵山地带” • 分类指导原则：Criteria for zoning: (Hazards + vulnerability) • Ⅰ类适应区:（生态脆弱/灾害多/气候贫困高发/高风险农业主产区） • 西北(三江源,宁夏中南部，宁夏沿黄经济区，黄土高原，河套灌区，北方防沙带等) • 西南(青藏高原,南方丘陵带） • 东北（森林带，东北平原农业区,） • Ⅱ类适应区:（高风险城市化地区,低风险农业区） • 东南(长三角,珠三角) • 华北地区(京津冀经济圈,环渤海区,) • 东北(哈长城市群，) • 中部(黄淮海平原) • 西北(汾渭平原,关中-天水城市区，兰西地区) • 西南(成渝地区,川滇生态区) • Ⅲ类适应区: (低风险城市区)

10. 不同发展阶段的适应需求 Adaptation and development * 发展型适应 ≈ 发展赤字 +适应赤字Developmental Adaptation ≈ development deficit + Adaptation deficit * 增量型适应 ≈ 适应赤字 Incremental Adaptation ≈ Adaptation deficit 适应赤字(Adaptation deficit)：适应能力不足 ，不能应对气候变化下的新增风险。 发展赤字 (development deficit) ：发展目标尚未实现，基本需求尚未满足。 增量型适应 Ⅱ类 Ⅲ类 发展型适应 Ⅰ类

11. 适应规划及区域发展战略Adaptation planning with climate carrying capacity

12. Thanks for your comments~