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Climate change and forest genetic diversity

Climate change and forest genetic diversity

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Climate change and forest genetic diversity

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  1. Climate change and forest genetic diversity Michele Bozzano IPGRI

  2. Climate change and forest genetic diversity • Climate change – the problem • International context • Case studies • Climate change and FGR in Europe • Research needs and Concluding remarks

  3. Global climate change is not a recent phenomenon Forest trees have continuously responded on climate change New is the speed of change New is the degradation of the environment Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics modified

  4. Dispersal ability Possibilities to acclimate Existing additive variance in important traits Mutation rates in these traits Speed of evolution Mating pattern Factors of importance in case of rapid global change Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics

  5. Climaticconditions suitable for growth ofspecies A Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics

  6. http://www.ipcc.ch/

  7. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARchap11.pdf http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/411.htm http://www.frameweb.org/ev_en.php?ID=1123_201&ID2=DO_TOPIC http://www.climate.org/CI/asia.shtml

  8. http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/tpbiodiv.pdf

  9. http://unfccc.int

  10. http://www.unep-wcmc.org/climate/index.html

  11. http://www.biodiv.org/programmes/cross-cutting/climate/default.asphttp://www.biodiv.org/programmes/cross-cutting/climate/default.asp

  12. Case study Australia

  13. Trevor H. Booth and Tom Jovanovic Determining Tree Species Climatic Requirements and Climate Change Impacts on Their Distributions

  14. Booth & Jovanovic (2005) Climatic change study for AGO • CSIRO Marine & Atmos. Res. scenarios • DARLAM & Cubic Conformal • 2030 & 2070 • 31 tree species

  15. Hughes et al. (1996) Vulnerable Euc. hotspot Present CC 2030 CC 2070

  16. Of possible interst: Matching Trees and Sites”.  ACIAR Proceedings No. 63 http://www.aciar.gov.au/web.nsf/doc/JFRN-5J474N To try to have a free copy write to:comms@aciar.gov.au specifying the country and the use you wish to do with it

  17. Climate change and FGR in Europe • Fourth Ministerial Conference on the Protection Forests in Europe (MCPFE), Vienna, Austria, 2003 • Vienna Resolution 5: Climate change and sustainable forest management • Workshop on ‘Climate change and forest genetic diversity: Implications for sustainable forest management in Europe, Paris, France, 15-16 March 2006 Jarkko Koskela IPGRI

  18. Climate change and FGR in Europe Key issues in Europe • Adaptation of forest trees • Forest management • Policies and economic considerations • Conservation of forest genetic resources under climate change

  19. Adaptation of forest trees Climate change and sessile oak (Quercus petraea) Current distribution:ObservedSimulated Future distribution 2080:GainStableLoss Simulations with BIOMOD model Thuiller 2003, Global Change Biology

  20. Adaptation of forest trees • Simulations are often based on the ‘climatic envelope’ approach • The responses are not likely to be simple and straightforward • Genetic processes in tree populations can modify their ecological niches • at individual level (plasticity, individual heterozygosity, changes in gene expression) the responses can be fast

  21. Adaptation of forest trees • How fast a tree population respond to climate change? Answers from: • Long-distance transfer of forest reproductive material • Provenance trials • Theoretical simulations

  22. Adaptation of forest trees • Experimental evidences: • Long-distance transfer results in most cases to rapid differentiation of populations (e.g. landraces in exotic species; American oaks and conifers in Europe) • Tree populations have undergone profound genetic differentiation as a result of natural selection (based on 50-yr provenance trials)

  23. Adaptation of forest trees • Migration • The current tree species in Europe have gone through selection process based on their capacity to migrate during the glacial-interglacial changes (extinctions of many species and genera (Magnolia, Liriodendron, Nyssa,Taxodium, Sequoia) during the process) • Can be an efficient mechanism to withstand climate change

  24. Adaptation of forest trees • Problems for migration • Spontaneous migration of tree species is unlikely in Europe today (intensive management, fragmented landscapes) • Landscape is not empty but filled with existing plant species -> interspecific competition • Can be a slow process

  25. Adaptation of forest trees • Careful transfer of forest reproductive material based on scientific results have the potential to accelerate adaptation of forest trees to climate change in Europe • The effects of climate change on tree populations are different in various parts of Europe (temperature, droughts)

  26. Research needs • Understanding • Mitigate (CO2 storage + environment restoration) • Safeguard the species and their genetic diversity