Climate Change Here and Now: Forest Ecosystem Impacts

1. Climate Change Here and Now: Forest Ecosystem Impacts Steven McNulty Southern Global Change Program USDA Forest Service

2. Three Goals of This Presentation • Participants will describe two examples • of impacts of climate change on ecosystems • Participants will identify two impacts of climate • change on forests • Participants will identify three ecosystem • services that forests provide

4. Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000

5. Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000

6. Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000

8. Spring bud-burst dates for Aspen in Edmonton Beaubien and Freeland I.J.Biomet 44:53-59, 2000

9. The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years averaged for eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most consistent temperature records.

10. Relationships Between Ecosystem Services Water Availability WaSSI-CB Carbon Sequestration Biodiversity

11. Water Shortages

12. West Compared to East: Different Demands on Water Resources

13. Model Rationale Anthro Land use change Climate Ground water Demand Supply

14. Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) WaSSI = Total water supply from all sectors Total water demand from all sectors

18. Reductions in Forest Water Quality Increased sedimentation (turbidity)

19. Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or 50.8 mm) BW 7 Karl et al. 1996

20. Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map

21. Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF

22. Projected Brook Trout Intact Range 2006 2026 2056

23. Water Trade-Offs Water Yield v. Forest Carbon Gain

24. Relationships Between Ecosystem Services (Sun Model) Water Availability WaSSI-CB Carbon Sequestration Biodiversity (Constanza Model) (Law Model)

28. Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 – 2040: No Climate Change Baseline > 25% DECLINE 5%-25% DECLINE <5% CHANGE 5%-25% INCREASE

29. Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley Climate Change 5%-25% DECLINE <5% CHANGE 5%-25% INCREASE

30. Relationships Between Ecosystem Services (Sun Model) Water Availability WaSSI-CB Carbon Sequestration Biodiversity (Constanza Model) (Law Model)

33. Fire Impacts on Forests

34. Changing Patterns in Wildfire Occurrence

35. Large Scale (> 400 ac) Wildfires and Air Temperature From Westerling et al. 2005

38. Changes in Tree Distribution

39. Sugar maple Iverson et. al GTR NE265

40. Loblolly pine Iverson et. al GTR NE265

41. Insect Impacts on Forests

42. Insect Caused Forest Loss Mountain pine beetle Pine beetle damage Forest damage

44. Future Insect Impacts on Forest Carbon Loss “Nearly 4 million acres (and 38 million trees) of mature white spruce forest on the Kenai Peninsula have been killed by a growing population of spruce bark beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) since about 1987. We attribute the beetle infestation to rising average temperatures in South-Central Alaska in both winter and summer. More beetle larvae can survive, and higher summer temperatures allow the insects to mature faster and complete a two-year life cycle in one year.” Edward Berg and Kenneth Raffa

45. Hurricane Impacts on Forests

46. Hurricane Zone in the US

49. T.R. Knutson and R. E. Tuleya, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

50. Recap of Talk Climate change will impact ecosystems - Change in the growing season starting date - Change in the growing season length - Changes in location of ecosystem productivity Climate change will impact forests through - increased water stress - increased fire risk - increased hurricane damage - increased soil erosion Ecosystem Services Provided - Water - Fisheries (recreation) - Paper, timber, carbon sequestration