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What Are Weather Forecasts Worth? Stated Preference Approaches to Valuing Information. Jeff Lazo Societal Impacts Program National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO www.sip.ucar.edu CANSEE, Toronto, CA - October 28, 2005. Outline. Motivation of the Study Prior Studies

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what are weather forecasts worth stated preference approaches to valuing information
What Are Weather Forecasts Worth?Stated Preference Approaches to Valuing Information

Jeff Lazo

Societal Impacts Program

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Boulder, CO

www.sip.ucar.edu

CANSEE, Toronto, CA - October 28, 2005

outline
Outline
  • Motivation of the Study
  • Prior Studies
  • Stated Preference Valuation
  • Survey Development
  • Results
  • Next Steps
slide3

Motivation

  • Evaluate benefits to households of improvements in weather forecasting services
  • 104,705,000 households
  • Day-to-day weather
  • National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
value of weather information
Value of Weather Information
  • Haas and Rinkle (1979)
  • MSI Services Incorporated (1981)
  • Chapman (1992)
  • Anaman and Lellyett (1996)
  • Rollins and Shaykewich (2003)
  • Weather forecasts - quasi-public good
  • Non-market valuation methods
    • stated preference
      • contingent valuation
      • choice based methods
survey development
Survey Development
  • Atmospheric Science Advisors (ASA)
    • attributes of weather forecasts
    • current and potential level of attributes
  • Focus groups (15 subjects)
  • One-on-one interviews (11 subjects)
  • Denver Pretest (84 Subjects)
  • Survey Expert Review Panel
  • North Carolina Focus Groups (23 subjects)
  • Multi-site implementation (381 Subjects)
  • National random sample (~1,400 Subjects)
survey layout
Survey Layout
  • Introduction
  • Sources, perceptions and uses
  • Forecast attributes
  • Value for improved weather forecasts
    • Stated choice - attributes of forecasts
    • Contingent valuation – demand characteristics
  • Household characteristics
  • Value for Current Forecasts
  • Severe Weather
survey implementation
9 cities – in-person self-administered

written survey - ~25-30 minutes

381 Respondents

Survey Implementation
results
Results
  • Perceptions (sources & uses)
  • Attributes and Levels
  • Valuation
    • modeling
    • value estimates
stated choice attributes and attribute levels
Stated Choice:Attributes and Attribute Levels
  • Dollars per year per household of $3, $8, $15, $24
  • Budget constraint reminder
  • 20 versions of survey
  • 9 Stated Choice and 1 Stated Value question
next steps
Next Steps
  • THORPEX Grant
    • Re-defining attribute sets and levels
      • Temperature: 0-2 days 3-6 days 7-14 days
      • Precipitation : 0-2 days 3-6 days 7-14 days
      • Geographic Specificity
    • National sample - ~1400 completes
    • Internet based implementation
    • Probablistic forecast Information
    • Modeling and analysis
      • non-linear in attribute levels
      • random parameters
      • socio-demographic characteristics
  • Hurricanes!