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The History and Future of Weather Radar and Storm Prediction. ASPRS Technical Session Dr. Jerry Brotzge Director of NetRad Operations Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms September 28, 2006. Why present weather radar to ASPRS?. Weather radar is critical to seeing the 3D structure

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the history and future of weather radar and storm prediction

The History and Future of Weather Radar and Storm Prediction

ASPRS Technical Session

Dr. Jerry Brotzge

Director of NetRad Operations

Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms

September 28, 2006

why present weather radar to asprs
Why present weather radar to ASPRS?
  • Weather radar is critical to seeing the 3D structure
  • of storms, and for severe storm situations,
  • that’s key for analysis and prediction.
  • Many new weather-based radar technologies include
  • GIS and merging of non-radar data sets
  • (e.g., satellite data)
  • You know more about satellites, GIS, and mapping
  • than I do.
slide5

Sir Robert Watson-Watt recognized the

  • use of “sferics” in 1922 to locate t-storms.
  • Radio research in 1930s recognized
  • weather, ships & planes interfered with radio.
  • By 1935 Sir Watson-Watt was investigating
  • the use of EM waves to detect aircraft.
  • In 1940, S. Taylor and F. Furth of the U.S. navy
  • coined “RADAR” – ‘RAdio Detecting And Ranging’

* SCR-658 radio direction finder

used to track radiosonde balloons

a.k.a., "bedsprings" antenna.

~ 1945

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/wea01200.htm

the first radar network
The First Radar Network
  • British Chain Home (CH) network
    • Operated in HF portion of spectrum
  • Development of klystron electronic tube
  • Improved radars operated in higher freq
  • Developed smaller, airborne radar
  • 360-ft tower at Great Baddow in Essex

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chain_Home

the first weather radar networks
The First Weather Radar Networks
  • Panama: April-May, 1944
  • 4 radars
  • Transmitted data on Teletype
  • Produced regular radar reports
  • (RAREPs)
  • India: Summer, fall 1944
  • APQ-13 radars (X-band)
  • - Bombing & navigation system
  • - Used from 1944 - 1977

http://www.american-european.net/images_common/panama-map.jpg/

http://history.amedd.army.mil/booksdocs/wwii/orgadmin/map13.jpg

slide9

SCR-584 mobile radar unit.

http://www.century-of-flight.freeola.com/Aviation%20history/evolution%20of%20technology/Radar.htm

slide10

Mobile radar set AN/TPL-1: Designed for ‘searchlight control’.

Had a range of 60,000 yards, provided warning of approaching storms,

and used to track upper wind observation instrument packages.

- "AAF Manual 105-101-2 Radar Storm Detection,"

by Headquarters, Army Air Forces, August 1945. (Picture taken 1944)

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/

slide11

The oldest preserved

  • photos of a radar
  • display of a
  • meteorological
  • phenomenon.
  • Photo is of a cold front
  • approaching Boston,
  • MA July 22, 1943.
first operational weather radar images 1945
First operational weather radar images… – 1945
  • After WWII, military radar began to be used for civilian purposes –
    • weather detection and air traffic control.

http://www.history.noaa.gov/stories_tales/radar_detect.html

http://www.history.noaa.gov/stories_tales/radar.html

first tornado observed with radar 1953
First tornado observed with radar… – 1953
  • Observed 9 April, 1953 north of Champaign-
  • Urbana. Photo taken by D. Staggs.

http://chill.colostate.edu/tornado_1953/index.html.asof.16jan04

first recorded tornado observed with radar 1953
First recorded tornado observed with radar… – 1953
  • May 11, 1953 – Waco, TX – 119 d.
  • June 8, 1953 - Flint, MI – 115 d.
  • June 9, 1953 - Worcester, MA – 94 d.
  • Research radar – APS-15A.
  • X-band, 3 deg beamwidth

http://chill.colostate.edu/tornado_1953/index.html.asof.16jan04

texas tornado warning network
Texas Tornado Warning Network
  • Federal, State, local gov’ts, and
  • university partnership.
  • Total 17 radars installed.

http://www.met.tamu.edu/TAMSCAMS/history/1956radars.jpg

slide16

Sept 16, 1946 hurricane,

  • 135 mi SE of Orlando, FL.
  • Only the 3rd hurricane to be
  • documented from radar.

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/hurr2.html

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/wea01228.htm

the weather bureau s new flagship radar the weather surveillance radar 1957 wsr 57
The Weather Bureau’s New Flagship Radar…the Weather Surveillance Radar – 1957 (WSR-57)

Kantor, A. and D. Grantham, 1969: Effect of range on apparent height and frequency

of high-altitude radar precipitation echoes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 429-431.

weather surveillance radar 1957 wsr 57
Weather Surveillance Radar – 1957WSR-57

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/stories/radar2.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/research/history.htm

weather surveillance radar 1957 wsr 571
Weather Surveillance Radar – 1957WSR-57

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/stories/radar.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/history/wsr57.jpg

http://homepages.wmich.edu/~b1naftel/Radar_SWLMich.gif

slide20

Tornado observed

  • near Meriden, KS,
  • May 19, 1960.

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/wea01223.htm

data transmission
Data Transmission

Teletype machines, installed 1961

http://www.navis.gr/meteo/images/fax_mach.jpg

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/program_areas/wxpics/history/index.php

doppler radar the next step forward
Doppler Radar – the next step forward…
  • The Weather Bureau’s first Doppler radar. It was an experimental
  • continuous-wave X-band radar obtained from the Navy.
  • Recorded 205 mph winds from a tornado. (Calculations not done in real-time!)

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/wea01227.htm

doppler radar
Doppler Radar
  • Doppler radar provides the ability to measure radial velocity.

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gl)/guides/rs/rad/ptrn/ptrn2.rxml

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gid/Web_Stories/2004/weather/05-16/05_16_04_Severe.php

dual doppler radar
Dual Doppler Radar
  • Doppler radar can only measure the radial wind; therefore,
  • ideally, you prefer 2 radars at 90 deg angles.

http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/remote/lecture_notes/radar/doppler/graphics/dual_doppler_geometry.free.gif

dual doppler radar1
Dual Doppler Radar
  • The first dual Doppler radar observations of a tornadic storm.
  • (April 24, 1974)

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/40thanniversary/talks/doviak/slide17.html

weather surveillance radar 1988 doppler wsr 88d
Weather Surveillance Radar – 1988 DopplerWSR-88D
  • Development of the
  • pulse pair processor
  • (PPP) 1965-1978
  • JDOP: Joint Doppler
  • Operational Project,
  • 1978-1979
  • Approx 158 WSR-88Ds;
  • installed 1990-1997.
  • Jointly operated by the
  • NWS, DoD, and FAA.
terminal doppler weather radar tdwr
Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR)
  • Needed for detection of wind shear near airports
  • Continuous coverage near the airport
  • Shorter wavelength (C-band) – freq space available
  • Narrow beamwidth for improved spatial resolution

Courtesy: Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier

nws operational performance
NWS Operational Performance

Source: NWS Office of Science and Technology

Courtesy: Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier

nws operational performance1
NWS Operational Performance

Source: NWS Office of Science and Technology

Courtesy: Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier

nws operational performance2
NWS Operational Performance

Source: NWS Office of Science and Technology

Courtesy: Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier

near term nexrad improvements 2005 2010
Near-Term NEXRAD Improvements (2005-2010)
  • NEXRAD Open Radar Product Generator - ORPG
    • New Software/Algorithms
  • Integrate FAA Weather Radar (TDWR, ASR-9/11)
  • NEXRAD Open Radar Data Acquisition – ORDA
    • New Processor/Data Quality/Data Resolution/RV Ambiguity Mitigation
  • Dual Polarization Upgrade
    • Data Quality/Precip Estimation/Hail Detection/Tornado Detection/Microphysical Assimilation

Courtesy: Don Burgess, NSSL

orda bwer detection 140 km 75 n mi range
ORDA BWER Detection140 km/75 n mi Range

Legacy RDA (Height 4.9 km/16 kft) ORDA

Courtesy: Don Burgess, NSSL

orda hook echo detection 40 km 22 n mi range
ORDA Hook Echo Detection40 km/22 n mi Range

Height 120m/400 ft at 0.0o elevation angle

May 9, 2003 – 2nd OKC Tornado (F3)

Courtesy: Don Burgess, NSSL

slide37

Conventional

Radar

Dual Polarization

Polarimetric

Radar

Courtesy: Dr. Terry Schuur, NSSL

slide38

Dual Polarization

http://ibis.nmt.edu/nmt_lms/rhi_radar.html

dual polarization tornado signature
Dual Polarization Tornado Signature

Description: Radar Return from Tornado Debris

  • Utility
    • Prevent missed tornadoes
    • Pinpoint tornado location, accurate Severe Weather Updates
  • Limitations
    • No Lead Time
    • Not seen with most weak (F0/F1) tornadoes
    • Not seen at ranges longer than 50 nm
  • Future Work
    • Define maximum detection range
    • Define wind strength need for debris lofting
    • Collect more data, including bow echoes

* Tornado precursor signature may exist within developing hook echo precip distribution

Courtesy: Don Burgess, NSSL

feature detection algorithms
Feature Detection Algorithms

Mesocyclone Detection Algorithm

Velocity Thresholding

And De-Aliasing

Build Shear Segments

CAPS is Developing

New Variational

Algorithms Far

Superior to

Current Operations

For a Single Elevation Angle, Compare Radial Velocity in Adjacent Gates at the Same Radial

Distance to Identify Azimuthal Shear; Continue Along Each Azimuth Until Shear Vanishes

Start

Compute Attributes

Data base of shear segments based upon range-dependent gate-to-gate velocity thresholds

2-D Vortex Cores with strength rank

Strength Ranks

And Shear ID

Compute attributes

(e.g., vorticity)

2-D Shear Features at a Single Elevation Angle

Source: Stumpf et al. (1999)

Courtesy: Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier

mesocyclone detection algorithm

o

2.4

o

Storm cloud

1.5

o

0.5

WSR-88D

Mesocyclone

Cloud base

Feature Detection Algorithms

Mesocyclone Detection Algorithm

Data Base of Screened 3D “Features”

2-D Vortex Cores with strength rank

Compute and Store

Attributes

Vertically Associate

2-D Vortices

Center location,

Diameter, Rotational

Velocity, Depth, Base, Top, etc

Compare expectedlocation with actual;search at increasingradii; trackage of features

Time Association

3-D Vortex Features (accounts for beam-spreading)

Refined Data Base of 3D Vortices

Vortex diagnostics

Graphics Processing

Table of Mesocyclones

Classify based uponstrength, age, spatialorientation  ranking

Forecaster Workstation

End

Source: Stumpf et al. (1999)

Courtesy: Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier

slide42

Reflectivity

Velocity

Rotational shear

Rotation tracks

Courtesy: Kurt Hondl, NSSL

slide43

SCIT:

Storm Cell

Identification

And Tracking

Algorithm

Courtesy: Kurt Hondl, NSSL

new paradigm for future nws tornado warnings
New Paradigm for Future NWS Tornado Warnings
  • Present – use NEXRAD (and other radars) to identify precursor signatures of tornadic storms, then extrapolate into the future.

(Warn on DETECTION)

  • Future – use high resolution radar data to initialize cloud resolving forecast models to identify precursors 30-45 minutes in advance.

(Warn on FORECAST)

Courtesy: Don Burgess, NSSL

slide46

Assimilation/Model Timeline

OBSERVATIONS MODEL

Temp. Perturbations Added

20 min

First Echoes

First Echoes

55 min

Data Assimilation

Mature Supercell

20 min

Tornadogenesis

Forecast

35 min

Tornado Dissipation

Courtesy: Don Burgess, NSSL

future tornado warning
Future Tornado Warning

Issues at time t=0 min.

Courtesy: Don Burgess, NSSL

slide48

Data Assimilation System

Forecast Models

Radars

Detection Algorithms Applied to Gridded Fields

Other Observations

3D Gridded Analysis

That Contains all

Variables, is Dynamically

Consistent, and has Minimum Global Error w/r/t the

Observations

Features and Relationships

Forecast

Model Output

Courtesy: Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier

general concept of data assimilation

Observation

00

03

12

06

15 (hour)

09

Analysis

Analysis

Analysis

forecast

forecast

Routine forecast

Assimilation cycles

General Concept of Data Assimilation

Objective: produce an analysis on a regular grid by

combining all the available information

on regular or irregular grids

Available information: Observation, background,

model, uncertainties

http://meted.ucar.edu/AMS_Radar05.htm; Presentation by J. Sun

illustration of vertical grid mapping

z2

Height

z0

z1

Data grid

Model grid

radar

X-distance

Illustration of vertical grid mapping

http://meted.ucar.edu/AMS_Radar05.htm; Presentation by J. Sun

slide51

3 hrs (7 pm)

4 hrs (8 pm)

2 hrs (6 pm)

KFWS Radar

Observations

ARPS Forecast

With Radar

Data

ARPS Forecast

Without Radar

Data

Courtesy:

Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier

comparison of retrieved wind between single and dual radar analysis
Comparison of retrieved windbetween single and dual radar analysis

Color: reflectivity Contours: horizontal convergence

Analysis using only KFTG radar data

Analysis using both KFTG and TDWR radar data

Sun and Wilson (2003)

http://meted.ucar.edu/AMS_Radar05.htm; Presentation by J. Sun

single doppler retrieval
Single Doppler Retrieval

Weygandt et al., 2002:

Retrieval of Model

Initial Fields…

Mon. Wea. Rev.,

130, 433-453.

clear air radar refractivity
Clear Air Radar: Refractivity
  • Refractivity data collected
  • in NE Colorado during
  • the REFRACTT
  • experiment.
  • Green color represents
  • moisture pooled along
  • the Front Range.
  • Image taken July 18, 2006.

© UCAR

mobile radars shared mobile atmospheric teaching smart radar
Mobile radars Shared Mobile Atmospheric & Teaching (SMART) Radar

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/smartradars/

mobile radars shared mobile atmospheric teaching smart radar1
Mobile radars Shared Mobile Atmospheric & Teaching (SMART) Radar
  • Data collected during
  • Hurricane Frances
  • during Sep. 3-5, 2004.

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/smartradars/images/swp.1040905041211.SMART-R1..jpg

mobile radars shared mobile atmospheric teaching smart radar2
Mobile radars Shared Mobile Atmospheric & Teaching (SMART) Radar
  • Data collected during
  • the Geary, OK storm
  • of 29 May, 2004.

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/smartradars/images/SR-2May29.gif

mobile radars doppler on wheels dows1
Mobile radars Doppler-on-Wheels (DoWs)

Data collected June 2, 1995 at a distance of 3km near Dimmitt, TX.

Science V.272, p1774-7, 21 June 1996, Wurman, et al.

slide62

Data collected May 16, 1995 near Hanston, KS.

http://aaron.ou.edu/downloads/archives.htm

space based radar trmm tropical rainfall measuring mission
Space-based radar -TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)

http://www.eohandbook.com/eohb05/ceos/part3_1_pop3.html

trmm precipitation radar tropical rainfall measuring mission
TRMM Precipitation Radar(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)
  • Operates at 13.8 GHz
  • Phased array antenna

http://www.eohandbook.com/eohb05/ceos/part3_1_pop3.html

slide66

Courtesy: Dr. Pam Heinselman;

submitted for publication, 2006.

slide68

0-3 km

$

$

$

$

$

Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere

  • Low to the ground
  • Network of small radars
  • Adaptive
  • Low cost

$$$$$$$

$$$$$$$

© 1998 Prentice-Hall, Inc. -- From: Lutgens and Tarbuck, The Atmosphere, 7th Ed.

slide69

© Jian Zhang

The 10-Year vision

is to supplement

NEXRAD, PAR

with coverage at

low-levels.

slide70

Real-time Targeted Sampling

  • Gridded
  • solution
  • Multi-
  • sensor
  • approach
  • DCAS
  • Real-time adaptability
  • Resource optimization

Real time: ~ 30 seconds

integrated project one ip1
Integrated Project One (IP1)

Cyril

Chickasha

Rush

Springs

Lawton

acknowledgements
Acknowledgements

Don Burgess, NSSL

Rodger Brown, NSSL

Dick Doviak, NSSL

Kelvin Droegemeier, SoM

Pam Heinselman, NSSL

Kurt Hondl, NSSL

Terry Schuur, NSSL

Ming Xue, SoM

warning decision support system integrated information

Radar #1

WDSS-II

Radar #2

MULTI-SENSOR

APPLICATION #1

Radar #3

GOES

w2

Display

DATA/PRODUCT INDEX

METAR

Mesonet

MULTI-SENSOR

APPLICATION #2

NLDN

LMA

RUC20

AWIPS

EXTERNAL

APPLICATION

ADAS

Warning Decision Support System –Integrated Information

Courtesy: Don Burgess, NSSL

first recorded tornado observed with radar 19531
First recorded tornado observed with radar… – 1953

http://chill.colostate.edu/tornado_1953/index.html.asof.16jan04

Fujita, T., 1958 Journal of Meteorology article (V15, pp 288-296)

oversampling

u v wind

truth

O/S

0.125o

N/O

2o

Oversampling
visualization
Visualization

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/wea01231.htm

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/40thanniversary/talks/doviak/slide2.html

1985

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/40thanniversary/talks/doviak/slide3.html

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/wea01258.htm

and now a look ahead
…and now a look ahead.

2020

1996

2005

1976