NCEP Update: Review of Progress in Operational Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasts

1. NCEP Update: Review of Progress in Operational Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasts “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP University of Maryland November 2, 2006

2. Overview • Define NCEP • “Seamless Suite” of forecast products: climate/weather linkage • Recent Advances • Seasonal to Interannual/Climate Forecast System • Ocean Prediction/HYCOM • “Medium range” Days 4-7/North American Ensemble Forecast System • Days1-3: Winter Weather Desk/Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System • Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Performance Metrics • Future • Community Models • Multi-model Ensembles • New building • NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (Maryland)

3. Define NCEP

4. Central Guidance Local Offices The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services Observe To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, … Process Products & Forecast Services Respond & Feedback NCEP Distribute IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback

5. The Environmental Forecast Process Observations Data Assimilation Analysis Model Forecast Numerical Forecast System Post-processed Model Data Forecaster User (public, industry…)

6. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission:NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Space Environment Center Total FTE: 430 161 Contractors/47 Visitors Storm Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

7. NCEP Employment Summary • Civil Service Positions • 430 civil servant positions • Average 32 hires/year at all levels • 2-4 entry-level hires/year • Contract Positions • Average 140 contractors/year (over last 4 years) • Currently have 161 contractors • Approximately 28 contractor vacancies/year • Student Programs • Average number of student interns - 6 (SCEP/STEP) http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm) • 16 Summer hires in 2006 through various programs (http://epp.noaa.gov/ , http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/Hollings_info.html )

8. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings What Does NCEP Do? “From the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International and National Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations • Transition Test Beds Being Developed throughout NCEP

9. EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed TPC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed* SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SEC Solar Test Bed AWC FAA Aviation Test Bed with NCAR RAP* OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Service – Science Linkagewith the Outside Community * Under development

10. Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Climate-Weather Linkage

11. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Energy Health Reservoir Control Space Operation State/Local Planning Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days • Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 • Tropical Storms to Day 5 • Severe Weather to Day 3 SPC AWC SEC Hours Minutes

12. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Energy Health Reservoir Control Space Operation State/Local Planning Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Global Forecast System Days Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Model North American Forecast Hours Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Minutes Dispersion Models for DHS

13. 2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Forecast Ensemble Hurricane HYCOM Ocean NAEFS GFDL WRF-NMM WRF-ARW ETA RSM Dispersion Global Global Data Assimilation SREF GFS Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW Regional Climate N D A S CFS NAM – WRF NMM MOM3 Air Quality NOAH Land Surface Model Rapid Update Cycle L D A S

14. Computing Capability Primary Weather $13.9 M Primary Climate $5.3 M Backup $7.2 M Total: $26.4 M Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • 3x upgrade scheduled for 2006 4th Q delivery

15. Recent Advances

16. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Energy Health Reservoir Control Space Operation State/Local Planning Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week HYCOM Ocean Model Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Hours Minutes

17. The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System(implemented August 24, 2004) • Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) • T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical • Recent upgrades in model physics • Solar radiation (Hou, 1996) • cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998) • gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995) • cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997) 1. Atmospheric component 2. Oceanic component • GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) • 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers • Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N) • Free surface 3. Coupled model • Once-a-day coupling • Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology 4. Calibrated on past 38 years

18. Climate Forecast System Availability • Real-time 2x daily, 9-month forecasts, monthly ensemble of 40-60 members. • 15-member reforecasts per month (1981–2005) • Calibration • Skill estimates • Analog and statistical forecasts • The website for real time data retrieval is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst • The climatological data is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/ • Complete documentation available at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf 7 day average centered on March 8

21. THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED Priorities: • Improve Climate Forecast System • Assess Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System • Fully Utilize Climate Reanalysis – An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System • Develop Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support Mission:To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research communityto improved NOAA climate forecast products and services. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/

22. Current Projects By Programmatic Theme: • NOAA/NCEP Climate Forecast System Improvements • Ocean Component of the NCEP ENSO CFS (PI: McPhaden, PMEL) • Improvement of the GODAS at NCEP (PI’s: Xue and Behringer, NCEP) • Using Initial Tendency Errors to Reduce Systematic Errors (PI: Delsole, COLA) • Development of Neural Network Emulations of Model Physics for CFS (PI: M. Fox-Rabinovitz, UMD) • NCEP Component of the NOAA Core Project for GAPP (PI: K. Mitchell, NCEP) • The NAME Climate Process Team (PI: J. Schemm, NCEP) • Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System • Infrastructure for Multi-model Ensembles at the NOAA CTB (PI’s: Leetmaa, GFDL; Lord, NCEP) • Explore MME with international operational centers • Climate Reanalysis – An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System • Regional Climate Data Assimilation System (R-CDAS) / NAME Data Impact (PI: K. Mo, NCEP) • Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support • Consolidation of Multi method Seasonal Forecasts at CPC (PI: van den Dool, NCEP) • A Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System for the United States (PI: K. Mo, NCEP) • 5) Assess development work, upgrade the CFS in FY10 and improve CFS products.

23. Ocean Prediction • NCEP to provide “backbone” support for operational delivery of ocean model forecasts • In response to NOAA Science Advisory Board Report

24. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Energy Health Reservoir Control Space Operation State/Local Planning Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week HYCOM Ocean Model Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Hours Minutes

25. Observations NASA-NOAA-DOD JCSDA AMSR, GOES, AIRS, JASON, WindSat, MODIS Advanced ODA Techniques Satellite (AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT) In situ (ARGO, Buoys, Ships) Data Cutoff CFS: 2 week data cutoff RTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION OCEAN FORECAST CLIMATE FORECAST CFS-GODAS NCO/ODA EMC NOPP-JPL (ECCO) RT-OFS-GODAE NOPP EMC Shared history, coding, and data processing OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS Climate Forecast System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System HYCOM  HOME MOM-3  MOM-4  HOME http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

26. Real-Time Ocean Prediction with HYCOM • Goal: to develop and implement operational, high resolution ocean prediction systems for the Global Oceans and Basins • NCEP Partners with • University of Miami/RSMAS • NRL Stennis, NRL Monterey, FNMOC • NOAA PMEL, AOML • Los Alamos National Laboratory • Others (international, commercial) • Hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure ocean model (called Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model– HYCOM) • Implemented December 2005 Chesapeake Bay

27. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/ RT-OFS Products

28. North American Ensemble Forecast System

29. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Energy Health Reservoir Control Space Operation State/Local Planning Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week HYCOM Ocean Model Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Hours Minutes

30. North American Ensemble Forecast System International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products • Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA • Now:CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 56/day out to 16 days • ’07 – CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days • Generates products for • Intermediate users: forecasters at NCEP, WFOs, academia, media, private sector, … • Specialized users: hydrologic applications in all three countries • End users: forecasts for public distribution in US, Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM) • Future activities • Adding products (probabilistic in nature) • Incorporating ensemble data from other centers (e.g., FNMOC) • Unified evaluation/verification procedures After bias correction Probabilistic skill extended 1-3 days Raw ensemble

31. NAEFS Products • NAEFS basic product list • 11 functionalities • Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc. • 50 variables • U,v,t,z,CAPE, precip type, etc. • 7 domains • Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA, Caribbean, Africa • Over 600 products requested by users (will be supplied via priority order) • Graphics • Available on NAWIPS at NCEP Centers • Grids • NAWIPS • ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/grns/prod • NDGD in planning phase (Aug 07)

32. Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System

33. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Energy Health Reservoir Control Space Operation State/Local Planning Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week HYCOM Ocean Model Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Hours Minutes

34. Short Range Ensemble Forecast • 21 members twice per day • 87 hrs from 9 and 21Z • Resolution 32km/60 levels • Mean and spread charts available for forecaster use • Developing products on probability of snow and ice accumulation • http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html 0.01” snow

35. SREF Upgrades • FY2006 • Added six members twice per day (WRF ARW & WRF NMM) (Dec ‘05) • Run SREF 4 times per day (03, 09, 15 and 21 UTC) (June, 2006) • Implement Grid Based Bias Correction • Improve Probabilistic verification • Develop spread information • Add WRF BUFR Files • Implement ensemble mean BUFR files

36. SREF Enhancement with 6 WRF-based Members Chance that truth is outside ensemble range RMS Error 15 member 21 member

37. New Impact Graphics from SREF • Probability event will last more than 12, 24, 48 hrs • Probability visibility will be reduced to 1/2, 1/4, or 1/8 mile in winter precip • Probability winter precip rate will be more than 1, 2, or 3" per hr • Probability road sensor will detect winter precip (relative to normal) “snow on road” • Probability Blizzard Criteria will be met • Probability Freezing Rain .01" or more will accumulate on any surface • Probability NWS Winter Storm Warning criteria will be met (under construction) http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/

38. NWS Winter Weather Desk • Time line: Sep 15 – April 1 • Participants • NCEP HPC • Provide SREF based Winter Wx guidance • Collaborate with WFOs (Chat Room Technology) • WFOs • All CONUS WFOs • Use guidance from NCEP to produce coordinated Winter Storm Watches/Warnings • Products: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml • 24 h probability (low, moderate, high) of meeting/exceeding 4”, 8”, 12” snow, 0.25” freezing rain (for day 1, 2, 3) • 72h Low tracks graphic and discussion

40. 12Z, Feb 11, 2006 12Z, Feb 10, 2006 12Z, Feb 12, 2006 12Z, Feb 13, 2006 Daily Weather Map Web Site - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dwm/dwm.shtml

42. ≥ 4 inches ≥ 8 inches Day 2 Snow Accum Probability Valid 00Z Feb 12 - 00Z Feb 13 ≥ 12 inches

45. Regional Stats * Oct - Mar

46. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Five Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Next Ten Years Daily Satellite & Radar Observation Count 2005 210 M obs 2003-4 125 M obs Level 2 radar data 2 B 2002 100 M obs Count (Millions) 1990 2000 2010 2010-10%of obs

47. JCSDA Mission and Vision • Mission: Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate analysis and prediction models • Near-term Vision: A weather and climate analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations • Long-term Vision: An environmental analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively use the integrated observations of the GEOSS – and be ready for NPOESS at “Day 1” after launch

48. JCSDA Major Accomplishments • Common assimilation infrastructure at NOAA and NASA • Community radiative transfer model V2 released • Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system • Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers • Operational Implementations Include: • Snow/sea ice emissivity model – permits 300% increase in sounding data usage over high latitudes – improved forecasts • MODIS winds, polar regions, - improved forecasts • AIRS radiances – improved forecasts • New generation, physically based SST analysis - Improved SST • Preparation for advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/MHS), DMSP (SSMIS), COSMIC GPS data, EOS AMSR-E, GOES-R • Impact studies of POES MHS, EOS AIRS/MODIS, Windsat, DMSP SSMIS……. on NWP through EMC parallel experiments

49. Figure 3(b). 500hPa Z Anomaly Correlations for the GFS with (Ops.+AIRS) and without (Ops.) AIRS data, Northern hemisphere, January 2004

50. Impact of AIRS increased spatial data density/improved QC (Snow, SSI/eo/April 2005/nw)