FOR Q & A

1. FOR Q & A

2. CLIMATE STABILITY • Changing weather patterns • Volatility • Wider swings from norms • Security of investments • & Economic stability

3. TEMPERATURE PRESSURE WIND WEATHER

4. TRENDS IN VARIANCE WEATHER Prolonged droughts Rains> 2”/day Wide swings Timing, intensity and location of precipitation T CLIMATE 1900 1940 1976 2000

5. ATMOSPHERIC FORCING FACTORS

6. FRESHENING OF THE ARCTIC Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003 January 31; 299: 691-694

7. WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL & TRAUMA • WIDER SWINGS IN WEATHER • Hurricane Floyd after ’99 drought • Severe winter after milder • Fog, Ice Storms & Road Travel • Floods & Mudslides • Ice Instability, Heavy Precipitation & Avalanches • Infrastructure Damage and Water Q&Q • TRADE, TRAVEL, TOURISM STORM OF 2003

8. Temperature Dependence of Plasmodium Extrinsic Incubation Period Tempmin = 16oC n= No. of degree-days required Temp — Tempmin Number of days, n a b/a = 0.5 b c d/c = 0.75 d +2oC +2oC 15 20 25 30 Temperature, oC

9. GENETIC SHIFT IN PHOTOPERIODIC RESPONSE CORRELATED WITH GLOBAL WARMING --Bradshaw & Holzapfel, PNAS 2001 • Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito) • Southern phenotype • Shorter daylengths for diapause • Later onset of winter

10. The Geographic Distribution of Japanese B Encephalitis Family NYC 1999

11. WEST NILE VIRUS -CDC

12. Projected Aug 2003 May 2003

13. WNV and DROUGHT: CASE REPORTS Romania 1996:Neurological disease – Hundreds, Fatalities 17 . Prolonged drought and heatwave. Bucharest cases concentrated in blockhouses over aging sewage system where C. pipiens was breeding in abundance. Volgograd 1999:Hospitalized 626, Meningoencephalitis 84, Fatalities 40. Followed a drought.   Israel 2000: Serologically confirmed 417, Fatalities 35 Drought across southern Europe and Middle East. C. pipiens identified as a vector.  US 1999: Neurological disease 62, Fatalities 7, Sequelae >½ .  Severe spring/summer drought, mild winter and 3-week July heatwave.  US 2002:Human cases 3737, Fatalities 214, 43 US states, DC and 5 Canadian Provinces   Severe drought West and Midwest. Absence of snowpack in the Rockies.

14. ST. LOUIS ENCEPHALITIS1933-2001

17. Since 1976 El Niño Events Have Increased in Frequency, Intensity & Duration El Niño

18. REGIME SHIFT Chavez et al., Science 2003; 299: 217-221

19. The Western Warm Pool and El Niño

20. El Niño/La Niña and the Jet Stream

21. THE ARCTIC NADW “pump” 20%

22. ASIAN DROUGHT & FIRES: 1998

23. COASTAL MARINE ECOSYSTEMS • PRESSURES ON REEFS • Nutrient overload – urban, rural, air-borne • Loss of wetlands – “Nature’s kidneys” • Warming and weather extremes • Diseases of sea urchins - reef cleaners • Overfishing – reef cleaners

24. HEALTH CONSEQUENCES • Red Tides: PSP, ASP, NSP • Fisheries & nutrition • Salinization • Cone snails & medicines • Biophilia & mental health

26. OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS Harm Marine Mammals Shore birds Fisheries Consumers Livelihoods Spills & Leaks Exploration Extraction Transport Refining Transport MERCURY Air Pollution Eutrophication NOxs Acid Rain Combustion Warming Oceans Coral Reefs SLR EWEs Melting Polar Ice Climate Change

27. CLIMATE CHANGE & ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE Oil-related Extraction: Nigeria, Ecuador, Mexico Refining & benzene: locations and communities Air pollution & inner city truck routes Extreme Weather Events Economic inequities Vulnerabilities – coping, adaptation, restoration, prevention, public health infrastructure But no nation is immune Mozambique

28. ECOLGICAL AND HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES Predators WNV & Raptors Rodents: Lyme, Hantaviruses, Leptospirosis Scavengers, Decomposers Vulture die off in India Dogs: Rabies Forest Pests and Pathogens Water Q and Q, Vulnerability to Fires Coral Bleaching and Diseases Salinization, Fisheries & Nutrition

29. ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS & DISEASE FUNCTIONAL GROUPS – diversity and “redundancy”of predators, prey, competitors, recyclers, N fixers r-strategists:weeds, insects, rodents, fungi, bacteria, viruses - opportunistic, pioneering species. Huge broods, rapid generation times, good dispersal mechanisms, good colonizers of disturbed environments. “Generalists.” K-strategists:predators - large bodies, small broods, reproduce later in life. Many are “specialists” and good competitors in stable environments.

30. Coral Bleaching: Warming and Microbes Vibrio shiloi & V. coralyticus -infection and immunity are temperature-dependent -optimal infection and lysis at 29ºC release of zooxanthellae ENSO

32. Regime Shifts THE PACIFIC Warm West, Cold East Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003; 299: 691 Chavez et al., Science 2003 January 10; 299: 217

33. GENETIC SHIFT IN PHOTPERIODIC RESPONSE CORRELATED WITH GLOBAL WARMING--Bradshaw & Holzapfel, PNAS 2001 • Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito) – • has shifted toward southern phenotype • -- Shorter daylengths (southern) to cue • for diapause, with delayed onset of winters • Fastest evolutionary response has • occurred in northern populations • (reflecting TMINs in Boreal latitudes) Red squirrelsgive birth 3 weeks earlier, corresponding to the earlier arrival of spring.  Change genetic in origin – squirrels that breed earlier benefit from better access to food and territory, then pass on their early-breeding preferences to the next generation. -- Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B.

34. Average T ~1ºC/C WINTER & NIGHTTIME TEMPS ~2ºC/C Since 1950

36. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISEASE CLUSTERS

37. PACIFIC ANOMALIES ASIA AFRICA AMERICAS AUS WARM WEST COLD EAST Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003; 299: 691

38. ABRUPT PHASE-STATE CHANGE