1 / 38

FOR Q & A

FOR Q & A. CLIMATE STABILITY. Changing weather patterns Volatility Wider swings from norms Security of investments & Economic stability. TEMPERATURE PRESSURE WIND WEATHER. TRENDS IN VARIANCE. WEATHER Prolonged droughts Rains> 2”/day Wide swings

mick
Download Presentation

FOR Q & A

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. FOR Q & A

  2. CLIMATE STABILITY • Changing weather patterns • Volatility • Wider swings from norms • Security of investments • & Economic stability

  3. TEMPERATURE PRESSURE WIND WEATHER

  4. TRENDS IN VARIANCE WEATHER Prolonged droughts Rains> 2”/day Wide swings Timing, intensity and location of precipitation T CLIMATE 1900 1940 1976 2000

  5. ATMOSPHERIC FORCING FACTORS

  6. FRESHENING OF THE ARCTIC Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003 January 31; 299: 691-694

  7. WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL & TRAUMA • WIDER SWINGS IN WEATHER • Hurricane Floyd after ’99 drought • Severe winter after milder • Fog, Ice Storms & Road Travel • Floods & Mudslides • Ice Instability, Heavy Precipitation & Avalanches • Infrastructure Damage and Water Q&Q • TRADE, TRAVEL, TOURISM STORM OF 2003

  8. Temperature Dependence of Plasmodium Extrinsic Incubation Period Tempmin = 16oC n= No. of degree-days required Temp — Tempmin Number of days, n a b/a = 0.5 b c d/c = 0.75 d +2oC +2oC 15 20 25 30 Temperature, oC

  9. GENETIC SHIFT IN PHOTOPERIODIC RESPONSE CORRELATED WITH GLOBAL WARMING --Bradshaw & Holzapfel, PNAS 2001 • Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito) • Southern phenotype • Shorter daylengths for diapause • Later onset of winter

  10. The Geographic Distribution of Japanese B Encephalitis Family NYC 1999

  11. WEST NILE VIRUS -CDC

  12. Projected Aug 2003 May 2003

  13. WNV and DROUGHT: CASE REPORTS Romania 1996:Neurological disease – Hundreds, Fatalities 17 . Prolonged drought and heatwave. Bucharest cases concentrated in blockhouses over aging sewage system where C. pipiens was breeding in abundance. Volgograd 1999:Hospitalized 626, Meningoencephalitis 84, Fatalities 40. Followed a drought.   Israel 2000: Serologically confirmed 417, Fatalities 35 Drought across southern Europe and Middle East. C. pipiens identified as a vector.  US 1999: Neurological disease 62, Fatalities 7, Sequelae >½ .  Severe spring/summer drought, mild winter and 3-week July heatwave.  US 2002:Human cases 3737, Fatalities 214, 43 US states, DC and 5 Canadian Provinces   Severe drought West and Midwest. Absence of snowpack in the Rockies.

  14. ST. LOUIS ENCEPHALITIS1933-2001

  15. Since 1976 El Niño Events Have Increased in Frequency, Intensity & Duration El Niño

  16. REGIME SHIFT Chavez et al., Science 2003; 299: 217-221

  17. The Western Warm Pool and El Niño

  18. El Niño/La Niña and the Jet Stream

  19. THE ARCTIC NADW “pump” 20%

  20. ASIAN DROUGHT & FIRES: 1998

  21. COASTAL MARINE ECOSYSTEMS • PRESSURES ON REEFS • Nutrient overload – urban, rural, air-borne • Loss of wetlands – “Nature’s kidneys” • Warming and weather extremes • Diseases of sea urchins - reef cleaners • Overfishing – reef cleaners

  22. HEALTH CONSEQUENCES • Red Tides: PSP, ASP, NSP • Fisheries & nutrition • Salinization • Cone snails & medicines • Biophilia & mental health

  23. OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS Harm Marine Mammals Shore birds Fisheries Consumers Livelihoods Spills & Leaks Exploration Extraction Transport Refining Transport MERCURY Air Pollution Eutrophication NOxs Acid Rain Combustion Warming Oceans Coral Reefs SLR EWEs Melting Polar Ice Climate Change

  24. CLIMATE CHANGE & ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE Oil-related Extraction: Nigeria, Ecuador, Mexico Refining & benzene: locations and communities Air pollution & inner city truck routes Extreme Weather Events Economic inequities Vulnerabilities – coping, adaptation, restoration, prevention, public health infrastructure But no nation is immune Mozambique

  25. ECOLGICAL AND HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES Predators WNV & Raptors Rodents: Lyme, Hantaviruses, Leptospirosis Scavengers, Decomposers Vulture die off in India Dogs: Rabies Forest Pests and Pathogens Water Q and Q, Vulnerability to Fires Coral Bleaching and Diseases Salinization, Fisheries & Nutrition

  26. ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS & DISEASE FUNCTIONAL GROUPS – diversity and “redundancy”of predators, prey, competitors, recyclers, N fixers r-strategists:weeds, insects, rodents, fungi, bacteria, viruses - opportunistic, pioneering species. Huge broods, rapid generation times, good dispersal mechanisms, good colonizers of disturbed environments. “Generalists.” K-strategists:predators - large bodies, small broods, reproduce later in life. Many are “specialists” and good competitors in stable environments.

  27. Coral Bleaching: Warming and Microbes Vibrio shiloi & V. coralyticus -infection and immunity are temperature-dependent -optimal infection and lysis at 29ºC release of zooxanthellae ENSO

  28. Regime Shifts THE PACIFIC Warm West, Cold East Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003; 299: 691 Chavez et al., Science 2003 January 10; 299: 217

  29. GENETIC SHIFT IN PHOTPERIODIC RESPONSE CORRELATED WITH GLOBAL WARMING--Bradshaw & Holzapfel, PNAS 2001 • Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito) – • has shifted toward southern phenotype • -- Shorter daylengths (southern) to cue • for diapause, with delayed onset of winters • Fastest evolutionary response has • occurred in northern populations • (reflecting TMINs in Boreal latitudes) Red squirrelsgive birth 3 weeks earlier, corresponding to the earlier arrival of spring.  Change genetic in origin – squirrels that breed earlier benefit from better access to food and territory, then pass on their early-breeding preferences to the next generation. -- Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B.

  30. Average T ~1ºC/C WINTER & NIGHTTIME TEMPS ~2ºC/C Since 1950

  31. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISEASE CLUSTERS

  32. PACIFIC ANOMALIES ASIA AFRICA AMERICAS AUS WARM WEST COLD EAST Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003; 299: 691

  33. ABRUPT PHASE-STATE CHANGE

More Related