Darebin City Council Business Development & Employment Strategy Background & Issues Research

1. Darebin City CouncilBusiness Development & Employment StrategyBackground & Issues Research NIEIR June

2. Key Features - Darebin • The emphasis is now on high tech manufacturing and research and technology. However these businesses are struggling against high interest rates and the high exchange rate. • Transport, logistics and warehousing is growing, smaller distribution companies are taking advantage of location. • Good access to CBD, so gentrification continues and more professionals are now living in Darebin. These professional resources are not fully utilised within Darebin. • Pockets of relatively low cost housing support a declining proportion of low-income earners. • Highest population of indigenous people in Melbourne’s North. • Has stopped losing jobs and the process of restructuring appears to be in balance. • Northcote High Street is attracting innovative knowledge-based retail and services which cannot afford high rents. Improved amenity is attracting larger numbers of people to precinct to shop and eat.

3. Key Features - Darebin • Office development plans include the $250 million Australian Horizon development and Bell City $120 million revamp which includes office space, conference facilities and accommodation. • Retail strips are improving, and becoming cosmopolitan and high quality. Some strips are bargain based with few vacant shops. Retail is likely to be weak for some years as households give priority to reducing debt. • Well served with good diversity of retail, cafes and restaurants. Retail ranges from Northland Shopping Centre to boutique style shops in High street Northcote. • Well located to airport, distribution firms get first drop off and last pick up of the day because of proximity to airport. • Productive and ethnic diversity.

4. Population

5. Language Spoken At Home(Percentage) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 English Italian Greek Chinese Middle Eastern Semitic South Slavic Indo-Aryan Mon-Khmer Iberian Romance Southeast Asian Austronesian All other languages Darebin 2001 Darebin 2006 Melbourne 2001 Melbourne 2006 Cultural Diversity

6. Place of Birth (Percentage) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Australia Southern Europe South Eastern Europe Southern Asia Chinese Asia United Kingdom Middle East Mainland South-East Asia Maritime South-East Asia New Zealand All other places Darebin 2001 Darebin 2006 Melbourne 2001 Melbourne 2006 Cultural Diversity

7. Change in Country of Birth

8. Age Structure

9. Change in Age Structure

10. Educational institution attending (Percentage) 50 45 45 41 40.9 38.7 40 35.4 35 35 32.8 32.2 30 25 20 19.3 20 16.7 16.4 15 10 7.3 6.3 7 6 5 0 Secondary TAFE University Other 1991 1996 2001 2006 Education

11. Non-School Qualification: Level of Education (Percentage) 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Postgraduate Graduate Diploma Bachelor Degree Advanced Certificate Level Degree Level and Graduate Level Diploma and Certificate Levels Diploma Level 2001 2006 Education Level

12. Residence workforce by broad occupation (Percentage) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 5.8 10.5 Managers 8.4 12.5 22.4 25.5 Professionals 20.6 22.6 8.9 9.3 Labourers 7.4 8.7 9.7 9 Sales workers 9.7 10.2 Darebin 2001 Darebin 2006 Melbourne 2001 Melbourne 2006 Occupation

13. Resident Workforce by Age Groups (Percentage) 35 31.9 28.7 30 27.2 26.2 25 18.9 20 16.7 15 11.9 11.2 10 8.1 6.7 5.3 4.5 5 1.4 1.2 0 15-19 years 20-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65 years and over 2001 2006 Resident Workforce

14. Resident Workforce – In Decline

15. ResidentWorkforce – Rapid Increase

16. Darebin Workforce • Between 1991-2010 • Number of jobs in Darebin grew by 17,800 • Number of resident workers by 13,200, • Excess of 4,600 • Four industries made major contributions to this trend. • Education – net growth 2,450 jobs. • Retail – net growth 2200 jobs. • Transport – net growth 1700 jobs. Decrease in 700 jobs outweighed by greater decrease of 2,400 resident workers • Wholesale trade – net growth 1450 jobs • Only education had a high rate of job growth. • Likely that commuting into Darebin has increased.

17. Darebin Workforce

18. Work destination for People Live in Darebin 5.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% 5.2% 6.4% 4.1% 6.6% 23.5% 5.4% 4.6% 8.7% 26.3% Darebin Yarra Melbourne Moreland Port Phillip,Stonnington,Glen Eira Hume,Moonee Valley Melb west SOR Melb South East SOR Melb outer SE SOR Banyule Whittlesea Manningham,Nillumbik,Yarra Ranges Mitchell,Murrindindi All other Victoria Work destination for people living in Darebin

19. Residence Place for People Work in Darebin 0.8% 11.5% 1.8% 14.8% 5.5% 7.0% 8.8% 2.3% 0.9% 6.2% 0.9% 7.7% 2.4% 29.4% Darebin Yarra Melbourne Moreland Port Phillip,Stonnington,Glen Eira Hume,Moonee Valley Melb west SOR Melb South East SOR Melb outer SE SOR Banyule Whittlesea Manningham,Nillumbik,Yarra Ranges Mitchell,Murrindindi All other Victoria Residence place for people working in Darebin

20. Headline Unemployment 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Headline Unemployment The headline unemployment rate: is calculated by the ABS from the labour force survey

21. NIEIR Unemployment NIEIR Unemployment: headline rate adjusted for excess take-up of disability pension (from Centrelink)

22. Structural Unemployment Structural Unemployment: a measure of the level of long-term unemployed as a percentage of the NIEIR workforce

23. Centrelink Recipients 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Youth allowance Newstart allowance Parenting payment Disability support pension Social Security

24. Patent applications 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Average p.a. Hi Tech p.a. Info. Tech p.a. Average per Average per per capita per capita per capita capita (1994- capita (2001- 2001) 2009) Darebin Australian Average Patents Applications

25. Patents per 100,000 Capita 25 20 15 10 5 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Info Tech Darebin Info Tech Australian Average High Tech Darebin High Tech Australian Average Total Darebin Total Australian Average Patents Applications

26. New dwelling units approved 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Darebin (C) Melbourne North Residential Construction – New Units

27. Dwelling stock 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Darebin (C) Melbourne North Dwelling Stock

28. Floor area of commercial building approvals 500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Darebin (C) Melbourne North Floor Area -Building Approvals

29. Floor area of industrial building approvals 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Darebin (C) Melbourne North Floor Area-Building Approvals

30. Residential Property Market (2010) • Average house price in Darebin was approximately $900,000 (value in 2007-8 dollars). • Very close to the all-Melbourne average. • Less than half the average price in Stonnington (Melbourne’s highest priced municipality) • More than double the price beyond urban fringe (e.g. Murrindindi-$426,000). • Average unitprice was a little over $600,000 • 21 per cent of the dwellings in Darebin. • Just above the metropolitan average & similar to other mid-range suburbs. • Around 15 per cent below metropolitan average. • Average unit prices are fairly stable at around two-thirds of house prices. • From 2008 to 2010 average rate of growth of house prices in Darebin grew by 21% a year above the inflation rate, a little over the metropolitan average. • From 1996 to 2008 average rate of growth of house prices in Darebin was 9.9% a year above inflation – a percentage point above the metropolitan rate. • The has increased Darebin house prices from 86% to 101% of metropolitan average.

31. Housing Affordability • From 1996 to 2010, average house prices in Darebin: • Remained below those in Yarra, though differential has reduced. • Remained about 5 per cent above those in Moreland. • Grown rapidly than prices in Banyule & much more in Whittlesea. • Indicates that Darebin is becoming more attractive place to live. • High dwelling prices & rents mean Darebin will increasingly be reserved for high-income earners & those lucky enough to have inherited a house. • High-employment regions will be characterised by • Increasing average household size (adult children remaining at home) • Formation of group households of varying degrees of functionality. • Low-income tenants not able to afford the rents - overcrowding issues will be difficult to prevent.

32. Business Income Per Capita 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Business income per capita

33. Wages Per Capita 23,500 23,000 22,500 22,000 21,500 21,000 20,500 20,000 19,500 19,000 18,500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Wages per capita

34. Businesses in Darebin - Northcote

35. Businesses in Darebin - Preston

36. Industries in Darebin • The broadest available measure of the value of output combines: • wages and salaries paid to people employed • value of output of small business – the mixed work income and capital return received by the owner/operators of small business. It excludes: • gross profits of large businesses which operate in more than one LGA • capital returns on public assets. • On this basis, the value of output in Darebin • in 2006 was $ 3.5 billion. • was 2.2% of the value of the output of the whole metropolitan area.

37. Industries in Darebin • Compared to Melbourne as a whole, the structure of output showed relative concentration in the following industries. • Education. • Manufacturing of textiles, clothing and footwear, wood products, chemicals and ‘other’ manufacturing. • Services to mining. • Personal and household good wholesaling – not basic material wholesaling, which is below metropolitan average. • Food, personal and household good retailing – not motor vehicle retailing and services, which is not much above metropolitan average.

38. Industries in Darebin • Relative to Melbourne as a whole, the structure of output shows relatively low output in: • Electricity and gas supply. • Rail, water and air transport. • Finance & insurance (incl. services to finance & insurance). • Business services. • Proportion of output in health and community services • At Melbourne average. • Heavily weighted towards community services. • Contribution of construction • Little above Melbourne average. • Despite complete absence of quarrying of construction materials.

39. Industries in Darebin • Industries with average representation include the following. • Agriculture and mining (in urban areas mostly administration). • Printing, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products, metal products, machinery and equipment. • Water supply and drainage. • Basic material wholesaling. • Motor vehicle retailing and services. • Communications. • Property services. • Government services. • Health and community services, taken as a whole. • Cultural, personal and recreational services.

40. JTW Employment and UR Employment 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 JTW_Emp UR_Emp Employment

41. 20.0% Other Services 15.0% Accommodation Mining 10.0% Admin & Support Serv Rent, Hire & R/Estate Serv Retail Construction 5.0% Prof, Science & Tech Serv Manufacturing Education Public Admin Elec, Gas & Water Annual employment growth 2008-2010 Health & Social 0.0% Arts & Rec Services -5.0% Inf Media and Telecom Fin & Insur Serv Wholesale -10.0% Trans, Postal & W/House Agriculture -15.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Annual employment growth 2003-2008 JTW Employment Growth

42. 30.0% Other Services Rent, Hire & R/Estate Serv 20.0% Mining Accommodation Retail Construction Manufacturing 10.0% Prof, Science & Tech Serv Public Admin Admin & Support Serv Education Health & Social 0.0% Annual employment growth 2008-2010 Arts & Rec Services Elec, Gas & Water -10.0% Inf Media and Telecom Fin & Insur Serv Agriculture -20.0% Trans, Postal & W/House Wholesale -30.0% -40.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Annual employment growth 2003-2008 Usual Residence Employment Growth

43. Darebin Jobs • Number of residents working is 72,000 in 2010. • Darebin businesses provide 56,096 Jobs in 2010. • Darebin businesses employ over 16,000 residents. • The overall growth rate was 2.1 per cent a year for 17,800 jobs. • The industries in employment decline. • Manufacturing, job loss 1.9% a year, a loss of 3,700 jobs over the 18 years. • Electricity and gas (and water), job loss 5.1% a year but not much over 100 jobs. • Transport, job loss 1.8% a year for 700 jobs.

44. Darebin Job Growth – 1991-2010

45. Darebin Employment Growth post GFC

46. Hourly Pay rate • Average hourly rate of pay in 2010 is estimated at$34.60 per hour (dollars of constant 2007-08 value) • 9% below the metropolitan average • Comparable to the average in Moreland, Moonee Valley, Maroondah, Yarra Ranges and Greater Dandenong. • The average rate of pay is lower than in municipalities at a similar distance from the city centre to the east or south. • Between 2001-2008 the average hourly real rate of pay in Darebin rose by 2.3% a year • not as high as Yarra (4%) but higher than Whittlesea (1.9%). • Employment hours in Darebin have continued to grow at 1.7% a year over the two years.

47. Darebin since the GFC Unemployment rate has decreased from 6.6%(NIEIR 7.7%) in 2007 to 6.1% (NIEIR 6.5% in 2010). The workforce continued to grow, as employment has increased. Wages and salaries are up on the 2007 number so local spending power has increased. Disposable income is higher in 2010 than it was in 2007. Benefits paid in 2010 were higher than in 2007. Business income is higher in 2010 than it was in 2007. 47

48. Darebin since the GFC Darebin has higher than average recipients of Social Security Benefits for Disability Support 25+, Unemployment and Student Allowance. Darebin’s population has declined in the under 20 and over 55 age groups, the middle ranges have increased. Darebin’s households have continued to grow richer and household debt to gross income has continued to increase between 2007 – 2010. Residential building construction value was higher in 2010 than it was in 2007. 48

49. Darebin since the GFC Non-residential construction value was higher in 2010 than it was in 2007. Resident consumption continues to grow overall. Resident hours worked has continued to grow and was higher in 2010 than it was in 2007, total resident income was also higher. The numbers of hours worked in Darebin also increased. Between 2006 and 2010 resident employment rose from 64000 to 72000. Jobs in Darebin rose from 51000 to 56000. 49

50. 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 FOOD ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR HOUSING ELEC. GAS WATER & OTHER FUELS FURNISHINGS & HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENTS HEALTH TRANSPORT COMMUNICATIONS RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION SERVICES HOTELS CAFES & RESTAURANTS MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES Consumption